13 research outputs found
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Conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. This structure involves three basic entities (EN1, EN2, EN3): (1) EN1, a probabilistic characterization of the likelihood of different futures occurring at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, (2) EN2, a procedure for estimating the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment associated with each of the possible futures that could occur at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, and (3) EN3, a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the parameters used in the definition of EN1 and EN2. In the formal development of the 1996 WIPP PA, EN1 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainly; EN2 is characterized by a function {line_integral} that corresponds to the models and associated computer programs used to estimate radionuclide releases; and EN3 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty. A high-level overview of the 1996 WIPP PA and references to additional sources of information are given in the context of (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}), {line_integral} and (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su})
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Uncertainty analysis in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The appropriate treatment of uncertainty is now widely recognized as an essential component of performance assessments (PAs) for complex systems. When viewed at a high-level, the uncertainty in such analyses can typically be partitioned into two types: (1) stochastic uncertainty, which arises because the system can behave in many different ways and is thus a property of the system itself, and (2) subjective uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge about quantities that are believed to have (or, at least, are assumed to have) fixed values and is thus a property of the analysts carrying out the study. The 1996 PA for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) carried out at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will be used to illustrate the treatment of these two types of uncertainty in a real analysis. In particular, this PA supported a compliance certification application (CCA) by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the geologic disposal of transuranic waste. Insights on the conceptual and computational structure of PAs for complex systems gained from these and other analyses are being incorporated into a new software system under development at SNL to facilitate the performance of analyses that maintain a separation between stochastic and subjective uncertainty
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Proposed technologies for use in the National TRU waste system optimization.
Technology deployments planned for the National TRU Waste System Optimization Project are aimed at using appropriate cost-effective technologies to drive the national TRU waste system to a performance-driven certification system that is based on administrative and operational requirements with a sound safety and/or technical basis. Appropriate technology deployments are determined by first identifying technology needs; selecting promising technologies; and overseeing the development of operating procedures, personnel training, testing, and startup and operations to ensure that the resulting operations function correctly and meet the TRU waste certification requirements
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Use of Performance Assessment in Support of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Programmatic Activity Planning
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A Compliance Certification Application (CCA) of the WIPP for such disposal was submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 1996, and was approved by EPA in May 1998. In June 1998, two separate, but related, lawsuits were filed, one against DOE and one against EPA. On March 22, 1999, the court ruled in favor of DOE, and on March 26, 1999, DOE formally began disposal operations at the WIPP for non-mixed (non-hazardous) TRU waste. Before the WIPP can begin receiving mixed (hazardous) TRU waste, a permit from the State of New Mexico for hazardous waste disposal needs to be issued. It is anticipated that the State of New Mexico will issue a hazardous waste permit by November 1999. It is further anticipated that the EPA lawsuit will be resolved by July 1999. Congress (Public Law 102-579, Section 8(f)) requires the WIPP project to be recertified by the EPA at least as frequently as once every five years from the first receipt of TRU waste at the WIPP site. As part of the DOE's WIPP project recertification strategy, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has used systems analysis and performance assessment to prioritize its scientific and engineering research activities. Two 1998 analyses, the near-field systems analysis and the annual sensitivity analysis, are discussed here. Independently, the two analyses arrived at similar conclusions regarding important scientific activities associated with the WIPP. The use of these techniques for the recent funding allocations at SNL's WIPP project had several beneficial effects. It increased the level of acceptance among project scientists that management had fairly and credibly compared alternatives when making prioritization decisions. It improved the ability of SNL and its project sponsor, the Carlsbad Area Office of the DOE, to demonstrate the importance of ongoing scientific and engineering activities associated with the WIPP project. Finally, it provided objective documentation of the decision-making process for issues with an impact on safety at the WIPP, a critical topic for the general public and the regulatory agencies
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Performance assessment in support of compliance certification application for the WIPP project
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the US Department of Energy for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A Compliance Certification Application (CCA) of the WIPP (1) for such disposal was submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October, 1996, and is currently under review, with a decision anticipated in late 1997. An important component of the CCA is a performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP carried out by Sandia National Laboratories. The final outcome of the PA is a complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) for radionuclide releases from the WIPP to the accessible environment and an assessment of the confidence with which this CCDF can be estimated. This paper describes the computational process used to develop the CCDF. The results of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are also presented
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Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The conceptual and computational structure of a performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. Important parts of thk structure are @ maintenance of a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertain, with stochastic uncefinty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 Y regulatory period fiat applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from `the imprecision with which many of the quantities rquired in tie `hdysis are known, (ii) use of Latin hypercttbe sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncefirtty, (iii) use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncetinty, and OV) efficient use of tie necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to SUPPOII the analysis. The WIPP is under development by the U.S. Department of Ener~ (DOE) for the geologic (i.e., deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste, with the indicated PA supporting a ~Compliance Certification Application (CCA) by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October 1996 for tie necessary certifications for the WIPP to begin operation. If certified, the WIPP will be the first operational faciliv in tie United States for the geologic disposal of ra&oactive waste
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Summary discussion of the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic disposal of transuranic waste. The construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for total radionuclide release from the WIPP to the accessible environment is described. The resultant CCDFs (1) combine releases due to cuttings and cavings, spallings, direct brine release, and long-term transport in flowing groundwater, (2) fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) standard 40 CFR 191 for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste, and (3) constitute an important component of the DOE's successful Compliance Certification Application to the EPA for the WIPP. Insights and perspectives gained in the performance assessment (PA) that led to these CCDFs are described, including the importance of (1) an iterative approach to PA, (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, (3) a clear conceptual model for the analysis, (4) the separation of stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, (5) quality assurance procedures, (6) early involvement of peer reviewers, regulators, and stake holders, (7) avoidance of conservative assumptions, and (8) adequate documentation
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Overview of the National Transuranic Waste System.
The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) became a reality with the first receipt of waste in March 1999. The years of planning, certification, and permitting milestones were met and the facility began its' mission of safe disposal of the nations transuranic (TRU) waste. Today, more than 12,000 drum equivalents of TRU waste, are resting safely in bedded salt 2,150 feet (nearly one-half mile) beneath the surface of the New Mexico desert-a rock formation that has not moved since it fonned some 250 million years ago. It took more than 20 years to build, license and open the WIPP as the nation's first deep geologic repository for the permanent disposal of defense-generated TRU waste now stored above ground at 23 sites across the country. As it was throughout those 20 years, safety is the number one priority and most significant achievement as the project moves into its third year of disposal operations
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Mobile/Modular Deployment Project-Enhancing Efficiencies within the National Transuranic Waste Program.
In 1999, the National Transuranic (TRU) Waste Program (NTP) achieved two significant milestones. First, the Waste Isolation Plant (WIPP) opened in March for the permanent disposal of TRU waste generated by, and temporarily stored at, various sites supporting the nation's defense programs. Second, the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit, issued by the New Mexico Environment Department, for WIPP became effective in November. While the opening of WIPP brought to closure a number of scientific, engineering, regulatory, and political challenges, achieving this major milestone led to a new set of challenges-how to achieve the Department of Energy's (DOE's) NTP end-state vision: All TRU waste from DOE sites scheduled for closure is removed All legacy TRU waste from DOE sites with an ongoing nuclear mission is disposed 0 All newly generated TRU waste is disposed as it is generated The goal is to operate the national TRU waste program safely, cost effectively, in compliance with applicable regulations and agreements, and at full capacity in a fully integrated mode. The existing schedule for TRU waste disposition would achieve the NTP vision in 2034 at an estimated life-cycle cost of 48 to $6B. CBFO's approach is to optimize, or to make as functional as possible, TRU waste disposition. That is, to remove barriers that impede waste disposition, and increase the rate and cost efficiency of waste disposal at WIPP, while maintaining safety. The Mobile/Modular Deployment Project (MMDP) is the principal vehicle for implementing DOE's new commercial model of using best business practices of national authorization basis, standardization, and economies of scale to accelerate the completion of WIPP's mission. The MMDP is one of the cornerstones of the National TRU Waste System Optimization Project (1). The objective of the MMDP is to increase TRU waste shipment and disposal rates from currently certified sites as well as to provide a means to remove TRU waste from sites that have no characterization capability
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The 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste that has been generated at government defense installations in the United States. The WIPP is located in an area of low population density in southeastern New Mexico. Waste disposal will take place in excavated chambers in a bedded salt formation approximately 655 m below the land surface. This presentation describes a performance assessment (PA) carried out at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to support the Compliance Certification Application (CCA) made by the DOE to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October, 1996, for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. Based on the CCA supported by the PA described in this presentation, the EPA has issued a preliminary decision to certify the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. At present (April 1998), it appears likely that the WIPP will be in operation by the end of 1998