Probabilistic Description of Traffic Breakdowns

We analyze the characteristic features of traffic breakdown. To describe this phenomenon we apply to the probabilistic model regarding the jam emergence as the formation of a large car cluster on highway. In these terms the breakdown occurs through the formation of a certain critical nucleus in the metastable vehicle flow, which enables us to confine ourselves to one cluster model. We assume that, first, the growth of the car cluster is governed by attachment of cars to the cluster whose rate is mainly determined by the mean headway distance between the car in the vehicle flow and, may be, also by the headway distance in the cluster. Second, the cluster dissolution is determined by the car escape from the cluster whose rate depends on the cluster size directly. The latter is justified using the available experimental data for the correlation properties of the synchronized mode. We write the appropriate master equation converted then into the Fokker-Plank equation for the cluster distribution function and analyze the formation of the critical car cluster due to the climb over a certain potential barrier. The further cluster growth irreversibly gives rise to the jam formation. Numerical estimates of the obtained characteristics and the experimental data of the traffic breakdown are compared. In particular, we draw a conclusion that the characteristic intrinsic time scale of the breakdown phenomenon should be about one minute and explain the case why the traffic volume interval inside which traffic breakdown is observed is sufficiently wide.Comment: RevTeX 4, 14 pages, 10 figure

Interpreting the Wide Scattering of Synchronized Traffic Data by Time Gap Statistics

Based on the statistical evaluation of experimental single-vehicle data, we propose a quantitative interpretation of the erratic scattering of flow-density data in synchronized traffic flows. A correlation analysis suggests that the dynamical flow-density data are well compatible with the so-called jam line characterizing fully developed traffic jams, if one takes into account the variation of their propagation speed due to the large variation of the netto time gaps (the inhomogeneity of traffic flow). The form of the time gap distribution depends not only on the density, but also on the measurement cross section: The most probable netto time gap in congested traffic flow upstream of a bottleneck is significantly increased compared to uncongested freeway sections. Moreover, we identify different power-law scaling laws for the relative variance of netto time gaps as a function of the sampling size. While the exponent is -1 in free traffic corresponding to statistically independent time gaps, the exponent is about -2/3 in congested traffic flow because of correlations between queued vehicles.Comment: For related publications see http://www.helbing.or

Phase diagram of congested traffic flow: an empirical study

We analyze traffic data from a highway section containing one effective on-ramp. Based on two criteria, local velocity variation patterns and expansion (or nonexpansion) of congested regions, three distinct congested traffic states are identified. These states appear at different levels of the upstream flux and the on-ramp flux, thereby generating a phase diagram of the congested traffic flow. Compared to our earliear reports (including cond-mat/9905292) based on 14 day traffic data, the present paper uses a much larger data set (107 days) and the analysis is carried in a more systematic way, which leads to the modification of a part of interpretation in the earlier reports. Observed traffic states are compared with recent theoretical analyses and both agreeing and disagreeing features are found.Comment: More extensive and systematic version of earlier reports (including cond-mat/9905292). A part of interpretation in earlier reports is modified. 6 two-column pages. To appear in Phys. Rev. E (tentatively scheduled for Oct. 1 issue

Memory effects in microscopic traffic models and wide scattering in flow-density data

By means of microscopic simulations we show that non-instantaneous adaptation of the driving behaviour to the traffic situation together with the conventional measurement method of flow-density data can explain the observed inverse-$\lambda$ shape and the wide scattering of flow-density data in ``synchronized'' congested traffic. We model a memory effect in the response of drivers to the traffic situation for a wide class of car-following models by introducing a new dynamical variable describing the adaptation of drivers to the surrounding traffic situation during the past few minutes (``subjective level of service'') and couple this internal state to parameters of the underlying model that are related to the driving style. % For illustration, we use the intelligent-driver model (IDM) as underlying model, characterize the level of service solely by the velocity and couple the internal variable to the IDM parameter ``netto time gap'', modelling an increase of the time gap in congested traffic (``frustration effect''), that is supported by single-vehicle data. % We simulate open systems with a bottleneck and obtain flow-density data by implementing ``virtual detectors''. Both the shape, relative size and apparent ``stochasticity'' of the region of the scattered data points agree nearly quantitatively with empirical data. Wide scattering is even observed for identical vehicles, although the proposed model is a time-continuous, deterministic, single-lane car-following model with a unique fundamental diagram.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to Physical Review

Human behavior as origin of traffic phases

It is shown that the desire for smooth and comfortable driving is directly responsible for the occurrence of complex spatio-temporal structures (``synchronized traffic'') in highway traffic. This desire goes beyond the avoidance of accidents which so far has been the main focus of microscopic modeling and which is mainly responsible for the other two phases observed empirically, free flow and wide moving jams. These features have been incorporated into a microscopic model based on stochastic cellular automata and the results of computer simulations are compared with empirical data. The simple structure of the model allows for very fast implementations of realistic networks. The level of agreement with the empirical findings opens new perspectives for reliable traffic forecasts.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, colour figures with reduced resolutio

Single-vehicle data of highway traffic - a statistical analysis

In the present paper single-vehicle data of highway traffic are analyzed in great detail. By using the single-vehicle data directly empirical time-headway distributions and speed-distance relations can be established. Both quantities yield relevant information about the microscopic states. Several fundamental diagrams are also presented, which are based on time-averaged quantities and compared with earlier empirical investigations. In the remaining part time-series analyses of the averaged as well as the single-vehicle data are carried out. The results will be used in order to propose objective criteria for an identification of the different traffic states, e.g. synchronized traffic.Comment: 12 pages, 19 figures, RevTe

Steady state solutions of hydrodynamic traffic models

We investigate steady state solutions of hydrodynamic traffic models in the absence of any intrinsic inhomogeneity on roads such as on-ramps. It is shown that typical hydrodynamic models possess seven different types of inhomogeneous steady state solutions. The seven solutions include those that have been reported previously only for microscopic models. The characteristic properties of wide jam such as moving velocity of its spatiotemporal pattern and/or out-flux from wide jam are shown to be uniquely determined and thus independent of initial conditions of dynamic evolution. Topological considerations suggest that all of the solutions should be common to a wide class of traffic models. The results are discussed in connection with the universality conjecture for traffic models. Also the prevalence of the limit-cycle solution in a recent study of a microscopic model is explained in this approach.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure

Control of Spatial-Temporal Congested Traffic Patterns at Highway Bottlenecks

A microscopic theory of control of spatial-temporal congested traffic pattern at freeway bottlenecks is presented. Based on empirical spatial-temporal features of congested patterns at freeway bottlenecks which have recently been found, different control strategies for prevention or reducing of the patterns are simulated and compared. The studied control strategies include the on-ramp metering with feedback and automatic cruise control (ACC) vehicles. A recent microscopic traffic flow model within the author's three-phase traffic theory is used for validation of spatial-temporal congested pattern control.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figure

Cellular Automata Simulating Experimental Properties of Traffic Flows

A model for 1D traffic flow is developed, which is discrete in space and time. Like the cellular automaton model by Nagel and Schreckenberg [J. Phys. I France 2, 2221 (1992)], it is simple, fast, and can describe stop-and-go traffic. Due to its relation to the optimal velocity model by Bando et al. [Phys. Rev. E 51, 1035 (1995)], its instability mechanism is of deterministic nature. The model can be easily calibrated to empirical data and displays the experimental features of traffic data recently reported by Kerner and Rehborn [Phys. Rev. E 53, R1297 (1996)].Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.html and http://traffic.comphys.uni-duisburg.de/member/home_schreck.htm

Congested Traffic States in Empirical Observations and Microscopic Simulations

We present data from several German freeways showing different kinds of congested traffic forming near road inhomogeneities, specifically lane closings, intersections, or uphill gradients. The states are localized or extended, homogeneous or oscillating. Combined states are observed as well, like the coexistence of moving localized clusters and clusters pinned at road inhomogeneities, or regions of oscillating congested traffic upstream of nearly homogeneous congested traffic. The experimental findings are consistent with a recently proposed theoretical phase diagram for traffic near on-ramps [D. Helbing, A. Hennecke, and M. Treiber, Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 82}, 4360 (1999)]. We simulate these situations with a novel continuous microscopic single-lane model, the ``intelligent driver model'' (IDM), using the empirical boundary conditions. All observations, including the coexistence of states, are qualitatively reproduced by describing inhomogeneities with local variations of one model parameter. We show that the results of the microscopic model can be understood by formulating the theoretical phase diagram for bottlenecks in a more general way. In particular, a local drop of the road capacity induced by parameter variations has practically the same effect as an on-ramp.Comment: Now published in Phys. Rev. E. Minor changes suggested by a referee are incorporated; full bibliographic info added. For related work see http://www.mtreiber.de/ and http://www.helbing.org