Minimum consumptions requirements: theoretical and quantitative implications for growth and distribution

The authors study the impact of a minimum consumption requirement on the rate of economic growth and the evolution of wealth distribution. The requirement introduces a positive dependence between the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and household wealth. This dependence implies a transition phase during which the growth rate of per-capita quantities rise toward their steady-state values and the distributions of wealth, consumption, and permanent income become more unequal. The authors calibrate the minimum consumption requirement to match estimates available for a sample of Indian villagers and find that these transitional effects are quantitatively significant and depend importantly on the economy's steady-state growth rate. NOTE: This paper refers to figures not currently available with this electronic version. For a hard copy of the figures, call the Research Department's Publications Desk at 215-574-6428 and ask for Working Paper 97-15.Consumption (Economics) ; Wealth

Search Frictions and Asset Price Volatility

We examine the quantitative effect of search frictions in product markets on asset price volatility. We combine several features from Shi (1997) and Lagos and Wright (2002) in a model without money. Households prefer special goods and general goods. Special goods can be obtained only via a search in decentralized markets. General goods can be obtained via trade in centralized competitive markets and via ownership of an asset. There is only one asset in our model that yields general goods. The asset is also used as a medium of exchange in the decentralized market to obtain the special goods. The value of the asset in facilitating transactions in the decentralized market is determined endogenously. This transaction role makes the asset pricing implications of our model different from those in the standard asset pricing model. Our model not only delivers the observed average rate of return on equity and the volatility of the equity price, but also accounts for most of the spectral characteristics of the equity price.Financial markets; Market structure and pricing

Growth and Risk-Sharing with Private Information

We examine the impact of incomplete risk-sharing on growth and welfare. The source of market incompleteness in our economy is private information: a household's idiosyncratic productivity shock is not observable by others. Risk-sharing between households occurs through long-term contracts with intermediaries. We find that incomplete risk- sharing tends to reduce the rate of growth relative to the complete risk sharing benchmark. Numerical examples indicate the contracts are relatively efficient and that the growth effects of private information are small.growth, long-term contracts, risk-sharing

The return to capital and the business cycle

Real business cycle models have difficulty replicating the volatility of S&P 500 returns. This fact should not be surprising since real business cycle theory suggests that the return to capital should be measured by the return to aggregate market capital, not stock market returns. We construct a quarterly time series of the after-tax return to business capital. Its volatility is considerably smaller than that of S&P 500 returns. Our benchmark model captures almost 40 percent of the volatility in the return to capital (relative to the volatility of output). We consider several departures from the benchmark model; the most promising is one with higher risk aversion, which captures over 60 percent of the relative volatility in the return to capital.Business cycles ; Capital

Stochastic Discount Factor Models and the Equity Premium Puzzle

One view of the equity premium puzzle is that in the standard asset-pricing model with time-separable preferences, the volatility of the stochastic discount factor, for plausible values of risk aversion, is too low to be consistent with consumption and asset return data. We adopt this characterization of the puzzle, due to Hansen and Jagannathan (1991), and establish two results: (i) resolutions of the puzzle based on complete frictionless markets and non-separabilities in preferences are very sensitive to small changes in the consumption data, and (ii) models with frictions avoid this sensitivity problem. Using quarterly data from 1947-97, we calibrate a state non-separable model and a time non-separable model to satisfy the Hansen-Jagannathan volatility bound and show that the two resolutions are not robust. We support our argument via a bootstrap experiment where the models almost always violate the bound. These violations are primarily due to the fact that small changes in consumption growth moments imply changes in the mean of the stochastic discount factor, which render the volatility of the stochastic discount factor to be too low relative to the bound. Asset-pricing models with frictions, however, are much more successful in the bootstrap experiment relative to the case without frictions.Stochastic Discount Factor; Hansen-Jagannathan Bound; Equity Premium;

From Cronies to Professionals: The Evolution of Family Firms

We develop a dynamic model where each generation in a family firm can continue operating its inherited production technology or it could hire a professional to do the same. Though the professional is more qualified, his interests are not aligned with the interests of the family. In the context of an overlapping generations framework, we analyze how this tradeoff affects the evolution of the family firm. We find that family firms initially grow in size by accumulating capital and later professionalize their management after reaching a critical size.Family firms; Cronies; Moral Hazard;

Costly Technology Adoption and Capital Accumulation

We develop a model of costly technology adoption where the cost is irrecoverable and fixed. Households must decide when to switch from an existing technology to a new, more productive technology. Using a recursive approach, we show that there is a unique threshold level of wealth above which a household will adopt the new technology and below which it will not. This threshold is independent of preference parameters, and depends only on technological parameters. Prior to adoption, households invest at increasing rates but consumption growth is constant. We also show that richer households adopt sooner which is consistent with the evidence from the Green Revolution. Our results are robust to households having access to loans.

Evaluating Asset-Pricing Models Using The Hansen-Jagannathan Bound: A Monte Carlo Investigation

We conduct Monte Carlo experiments to examine whether the bound proposed by Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) is a useful device for evaluating asset pricing models. Specifically, we use recently developed statistical tests, which are based on a 'distance' between the model and the Hansen-Jagannathan bound, to compute the rejection rates of true models. We provide finite-sample critical values for asset pricing models with time separable preferences, and show how they depend upon nuisance parameters—risk aversion and the rate of time preference. Further, we show that the finite-sample distribution of the test statistic associated with the risk-neutral case is extreme, in the sense that critical values based on this distribution will deliver type I errors no larger than intended—regardless of risk aversion or the rate of time preference. Extending the analysis to accommodate other preferences, we show that in the state non-separable case, the small-sample distributions of the test statistics are influenced significantly by the degree of intertemporal substitution, but not by attitudes toward risk. For habit formation preferences, the small-sample distributions are strongly influenced by the habit parameter. However, the maximal-size critical values for time-separable preferences are appropriate for habit formation as well as state non-separable preferences. We conclude that with these critical values the HJ bound is indeed a useful evaluation device. We then use the critical values to evaluate three asset pricing models using U.S. data. We find evidence against the time-separable model and mixed evidence on the remaining two models.