Estimating the impacts of climate change on Brazilian regions

An integrated approach projects the economic impacts from climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies, explicitly considering the various territorial scales in Brazil (macro-regions, states, micro-regions, and networks of cities). A computable general equilibrium (GCE) model was used to simulate two climate change-free scenarios regarding the future of Brazil’s economy that are consistent with the global economic development trends under IPCC’s scenarios A2 and B2. Climate shocks, captured by the model through impacts on the agricultural/ livestock and energy sectors, were applied to these scenarios. The socio-economic trends of the scenarios with and without global climate change were reviewed in terms of benefits and costs for Brazil and its regions. The models interact with the agricultural/livestock and energy sector studies through variables such as energy generation and consumption for different sectors and regions, replacement of sources of energy in the production process and consumption by the residential sector, agricultural yields and land use, etc. These, in turn, are dependent on climate variables, future water supply and other economic factors.

Measuring the Contribution of Social Policies to Regional Inequality Dynamic in Brazil

We decompose the recent changes in regional inequality in Brazil into its components, highlighting the role of spatially blind social programs. We aggregate personal income micro data to the state level, differentiating 9 income sources, and assess the role of these components in the observed changes in regional inequality indicators. The main results indicate that the largest part of the recent reduction in regional inequality in Brazil is related to the dynamics in the market-related labor income, with manufacturing and services favoring inequality reduction. Labor income in agriculture, retirement and pensions, and property rents and other sources favored concentration. The social programs Bolsa Família and Benefícios de Prestação Continuada are responsible for more than 24% of the reduction in inequality, although they account for less than 1.7% of the disposable household income. Such positive impact on regional concentration is impressive, since the goals of the programs are clearly non-spatial.

Regional Differences in the Determinants of Investment Decisions of Private Firms in Brazil

This study takes on an important part or regional growth, that is, the investment decisions of private firms. The question asked is: do corporations decide on investments in the same way in different parts of the territory? The paper analyses investments of 482 large Brazilian firms in the period 1996-2004. The role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis, following the literature on firm investment decisions. Regional dummies used to capture differences in the role of those determinants indicate that there are significant differences across regions. This is important information for regional development policy, for different mechanisms should be used in different regions in order to foster private investments.

Regional and demographic determinants of poverty in Brazil

The paper identifies the role of regional and demographic determinants of poverty in Brazil. We first estimate the probability of a household being classified as poor or indigent. We then apply decomposition techniques to identify the role of demographic variables (family size, parent’s education, etc.) and of regional variables in explaining those probabilities. We found out that parent’s education is the most important determinant, but regional aspects also play a role in determining poverty across states in Brazil.

Opening the Convergence Black Box: Measurement Problems and Demographic Aspects

Brazil, regional convergence, regional growth, birth cohorts, micro data

Tertiary activities and informality: quantitative importance and interconnections within the economy in Brazil

This paper studies the importance of the Tertiary sector and the informal sector for the Brazilian economy, making an interconnection between them and with them and the rest of the economy and the formal sector. To do so, this work makes use of the data presented in the System of National Accounts and the National Survey of Households (PNAD), both from IBGE, and the Leontief model. The results show: a) the importance of the Tertiary sector for the Brazilian economy in terms of employment (around 61% of the occupied persons), and income generation (around 67% of the economy Value Added); b) the high share of the informal sector in the Brazilian economy (around 58% of the occupied persons and 34% of the income); c) the combination of these factors results in an economy with low wages and salaries and with an high concentration of income; and d) that the present productive structure of the Brazilian economy contributes to the concentration of income in the country.Tertiary Activities; Informality; Input-Output; Employment

Estimating the impacts of climate change on Brazilian regions

An integrated approach projects the economic impacts from climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies, explicitly considering the various territorial scales in Brazil (macro-regions, states, micro-regions, and networks of cities). A computable general equilibrium (GCE) model was used to simulate two climate change-free scenarios regarding the future of Brazil's economy that are consistent with the global economic development trends under IPCC's scenarios A2 and B2. Climate shocks, captured by the model through impacts on the agricultural/ livestock and energy sectors, were applied to these scenarios. The socio-economic trends of the scenarios with and without global climate change were reviewed in terms of benefits and costs for Brazil and its regions. The models interact with the agricultural/livestock and energy sector studies through variables such as energy generation and consumption for different sectors and regions, replacement of sources of energy in the production process and consumption by the residential sector, agricultural yields and land use, etc. These, in turn, are dependent on climate variables, future water supply and other economic factors

Regional Differences in the Determinants of Investment Decisions of Private Firms in Brazil

This study takes on an important part or regional growth, that is, the investment decisions of private firms. The question asked is: do corporations decide on investments in the same way in different parts of the territory? The paper analyses investments of 482 large Brazilian firms in the period 1996-2004. The role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis, following the literature on firm investment decisions. Regional dummies used to capture differences in the role of those determinants indicate that there are significant differences across regions. This is important information for regional development policy, for different mechanisms should be used in different regions in order to foster private investments

Dissecting convergence: occupation rates, structural changes, and sectoral factor reallocations behind regional growth

Most studies on convergence analyze the dynamics of per capita income, instead of the theoretically more appropriate product per worker (PPW). This study deals with the latter, providing information on the dynamics of regional product, net of the regional dynamics of occupation rates. It also assesses the contribution of different sectors to regional growth dynamics, stressing the role of sectoral structure changes in the regional dynamics of PPW, bringing some ideas from economic development literature into the convergence debate. Finally, the study analyzes the possible influence of factor reallocation among sectors to regional growth. Empirical evidence on the case of Brazilian states in the period 1981-1997 is offered

Determinantes regionais da produtividade industrial: O papel da infraestrutura

This paper evaluated the role of infrastructure on the productivity of industries in the Brazilian mesoregions. We found that infrastructure positively affects the efficiency of industries, although due to the size of the estimated coefficients, this influence is small. Considering the average levels of efficiency and product, a 1% increase in regional coverage of roads leads to an increase in the regional productive efficiency indicator (which varies between zero and one) around 0.1289 points and 0.121% in the regional industrial product; similar increase in urban infrastructure (consisting of water supply, sanitation and street lighting) leads to an increase in efficiency around 0.2801 points and 0.247% in the product; for the telephony sector, which showed only marginally significant, the result is an increase of 0.152 points in the efficiency indicator and 0.142% in the product