IMF-Related Announcements, Fundamentals, and Creditor Moral Hazard: A Case Study of Indonesia

Previous tests of creditor moral hazard cannot distinguish between two types of investor behavior: expectations of implicit guarantees or better future economic fundamentals due to a prospective IMF program. The novelty of our approach lies in the inclusion of the forward foreign exchange rate in the empirical tests of creditor moral hazard, which reflects investors’ expectations about the country’s future fundamentals and allows us to separate the effects of fundamentals from those of moral hazard. Using Indonesian financial markets as a case study, we first conduct tests of creditor moral hazard in the Indonesian bond and stock markets. Then, we use the forward exchange rate to confirm the interpretation of the bond and stock market results. Our results show that IMF-program related news, especially, the announcement of program negotiations, brings about higher stock returns and lower bond spreads, even though the bath sells at a forward discount on the same day. These results suggest creditor moral hazard in the Indonesian bond and equity markets.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40066/3/wp680.pd

Creditor Moral Hazard in Equity Markets: A Theoretical Framework and Evidence from Indonesia and Korea

This paper expands on the work of Sarno and Taylor (1999) and develops three alternative models in which creditor moral hazard might occur in equity markets under different assumptions regarding the existence of asset market bubbles and implicit guarantees. Incorporating IMF-related news associated with the own country and with other countries to our models, we are able to predict the expected change in investor behavior and its effect on stock returns. Using daily stock returns for Indonesia and Korea, we test the ability of the models to predict the expected changes in stock returns on the days of IMF-related news such as program negotiations and program approval. Our results regarding Korea and, to a lesser extent, Indonesia are consistent with the creditor moral hazard models that assume implicit guarantees and asset price bubbles. Our results show that, if there is creditor moral hazard in equity markets, its duration could be measured only by days, suggesting that creditor moral hazard is a short-term phenomenon.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40045/3/wp659.pd

Testing Creditor Moral Hazard in Sovereign Bond Markets: A Unified Theoretical Approach and Empirical Evidence

This paper critically evaluates the existing empirical literature on creditor moral hazard in sovereign bond markets, proposes a unified theoretical approach to test for IMF-induced creditor moral hazard, and provides empirical evidence, using daily sovereign bond market spreads of Indonesia and Korea. The results suggest that IMF-related news regarding program negotiations and approval may be associated with creditor moral hazard, but their impact on spreads is short-lived, indicating that creditor moral hazard could be best described as a short-run phenomenon.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40051/3/wp665.pd

Tumour necrosis factor allele variants and their association with the occurrence and severity of malaria in African children: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Tumour necrosis factor (TNF) is central to the immune response to Plasmodium infection. Its plasma concentration is influenced by allele variants in the promoter region of TNF. The study's objectives were to assess TNF allele variants (TNF(-1031), TNF(-308)): (1) modulation of malaria rates in young Tanzanian children; (2) modulation of the severity of malaria as indicated by haemoglobin concentrations at the time of presentation with febrile episodes; and (3) the association between Plasmodium infection and haemoglobin concentration in symptomless parasite carriers. METHODS: Data from a placebo-controlled trial in which 612 Tanzanian children aged 6-60 months with height-for-age z-score in the range -3 SD to 1.5 SD was utilised. Those with Plasmodium infection at baseline were treated with artemether-lumefantrine. An episode of malaria was predefined as current Plasmodium infection with an inflammatory response (axillary temperature ≥37.5°C or whole blood C-reactive protein concentration ≥8 mg/L) in children reported sick. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) pattern assessment as well as haplotype analysis was conducted using HAPLOVIEW. Cox regression models used in the primary analysis accounted for multiple episodes per child. RESULTS: Genotyping of 94.9% (581/612) children for TNF(-1031) (TNF(-1031)T>C); allele frequency was 0.39. Corresponding values for rs1800629 (TNF(-308)G>A) were 95.4% (584/612) and 0.17. Compared to the wild type genotype (TT), malaria rates were increased in the TNF -1031CC genotype (hazard ratio, HR [95% CI]: 1.41 [1.01‒1.97] and 1.31 [0.97‒1.76] for crude analysis and adjusting for pre-specified baseline factors, respectively) but decreased in those with the TNF(-308)AA genotype (corresponding HR: 0.13 [0.02‒0.63] and 0.16 [0.04‒0.67]). These associations were weaker when analysing first episodes of malaria (P value -0.59 and 0.38, respectively). No evidence that allele variants of TNF(-1031) and TNF(-308) affected haemoglobin concentration at first episode of malaria, or that they modified the association between Plasmodium infection and haemoglobin concentrations at baseline was observed. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of Tanzanian children, the TNF (-1031)CC genotype was associated with increased rates of malarial episodes, whereas the TNF(-308)AA genotype was associated with decreased rates

Culture, social interdependence, and ostracism

Recent research has demonstrated that cultural groups differ in how they experience ostracism and in how they behave in the wake of being ostracized. We review this literature paying particular attention to the role that one key cultural variable, social interdependence, plays in moderating responses to ostracism. Although the data present a complex picture, a growing number of studies have suggested that collectivistic cultures and high levels of social interdependence are associated with less negative responses to ostracism. We review explanations for observed cultural and individual-level differences in responses to ostracism and make a series of suggestions for future research that, we hope, will disambiguate current findings and offer a more nuanced picture of ostracism and the significance of cultural variation inherent within it

Renal Dysfunction Criteria in Critically Ill Children: The PODIUM Consensus Conference

CONTEXT Renal dysfunction is associated with poor outcomes in critically ill children. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the current evidence for criteria defining renal dysfunction in critically ill children and association with adverse outcomes. To develop contemporary consensus criteria for renal dysfunction in critically ill children. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Embase were searched from January 1992 to January 2020. STUDY SELECTION Included studies evaluated critically ill children with renal dysfunction, performance characteristics of assessment tools for renal dysfunction, and outcomes related to mortality, functional status, or organ-specific or other patient-centered outcomes. Studies with adults or premature infants (≤36 weeks' gestational age), animal studies, reviews, case series, and studies not published in English with inability to determine eligibility criteria were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION Data were extracted from included studies into a standard data extraction form by task force members. RESULTS The systematic review supported the following criteria for renal dysfunction: (1) urine output <0.5 mL/kg per hour for ≥6 hours and serum creatinine increase of 1.5 to 1.9 times baseline or ≥0.3 mg/dL, or (2) urine output <0.5 mL/kg per hour for ≥12 hours, or (3) serum creatinine increase ≥2 times baseline, or (4) estimated glomerular filtration rate <35 mL/minute/1.73 m2, or (5) initiation of renal replacement therapy, or (6) fluid overload ≥20%. Data also support criteria for persistent renal dysfunction and for high risk of renal dysfunction. LIMITATIONS All included studies were observational and many were retrospective. CONCLUSIONS We present consensus criteria for renal dysfunction in critically ill children

MIR376A is a regulator of starvation-induced autophagy

Background: Autophagy is a vesicular trafficking process responsible for the degradation of long-lived, misfolded or abnormal proteins, as well as damaged or surplus organelles. Abnormalities of the autophagic activity may result in the accumulation of protein aggregates, organelle dysfunction, and autophagy disorders were associated with various diseases. Hence, mechanisms of autophagy regulation are under exploration. Methods: Over-expression of hsa-miR-376a1 (shortly MIR376A) was performed to evaluate its effects on autophagy. Autophagy-related targets of the miRNA were predicted using Microcosm Targets and MIRanda bioinformatics tools and experimentally validated. Endogenous miRNA was blocked using antagomirs and the effects on target expression and autophagy were analyzed. Luciferase tests were performed to confirm that 3’ UTR sequences in target genes were functional. Differential expression of MIR376A and the related MIR376B was compared using TaqMan quantitative PCR. Results: Here, we demonstrated that, a microRNA (miRNA) from the DlkI/Gtl2 gene cluster, MIR376A, played an important role in autophagy regulation. We showed that, amino acid and serum starvation-induced autophagy was blocked by MIR376A overexpression in MCF-7 and Huh-7 cells. MIR376A shared the same seed sequence and had overlapping targets with MIR376B, and similarly blocked the expression of key autophagy proteins ATG4C and BECN1 (Beclin 1). Indeed, 3’ UTR sequences in the mRNA of these autophagy proteins were responsive to MIR376A in luciferase assays. Antagomir tests showed that, endogenous MIR376A was participating to the control of ATG4C and BECN1 transcript and protein levels. Moreover, blockage of endogenous MIR376A accelerated starvation-induced autophagic activity. Interestingly, MIR376A and MIR376B levels were increased with different kinetics in response to starvation stress and tissue-specific level differences were also observed, pointing out to an overlapping but miRNA-specific biological role. Conclusions: Our findings underline the importance of miRNAs encoded by the DlkI/Gtl2 gene cluster in stress-response control mechanisms, and introduce MIR376A as a new regulator of autophagy

Treatment of acne with intermittent and conventional isotretinoin: a randomized, controlled multicenter study

Oral isotretinoin is the most effective choice in the treatment of severe acne. Application of isotretionin to acne has been expanded to treat those patients with less severe but scarring acne who are responding unsatisfactorily to conventional therapies. However, its use is associated with many side effects, some of which can result in very disastrous consequences. Data related with intermittent isotretinoin therapy is still limited. Our aim was to asses the efficacy and tolerability of two different intermittent isotretinoin courses and compare them with conventional isotretinoin treatment. In this multicenter and controlled study, 66 patients with moderate to severe cases were randomized to receive either isotretionin for the first 10 days of each month for 6 months (group 1), or each day in the first month, afterwards the first 10 days of each month for 5 months (group 2) or daily for 6 months (group 3). The drug dosage was 0.5 mg/kg/day in all groups. Patients were followed-up for 12 months. Efficacy values were evaluable for 22 patients in group 1, 19 patients in group 2, and 19 patients in group 3. Acne scores in each group were significantly lower at the end of treatment and follow-up periods (P < 0.001). When patients were evaluated separately as moderate (n = 31) and severe (n = 29), no statistically significant differences were obtained among the treatment protocols in patients with moderate acne. However, there was a significant difference between groups 1 and 3 to the response of the treatments in severe acne patients at the end of follow-up period (P = 0.013). The frequency and severity of isotretionin-related side effects were found to be lower in groups 1 and 2 compared with group 3. Intermittent isotretinoin may represent an effective alternative treatment, especially in moderate acne with a low incidence and severity of side effects. The intermittent isotretinoin can be recommended in those patients not tolerating the classical dosage

Steinert's syndrome presenting as anal incontinence: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Myotonic dystrophy (MD) or Steinert's syndrome is a rare cause of chronic diarrhea and anal incontinence. In the presence of chronic diarrhea and fecal incontinence with muscle weakness, neuromuscular disorders such as myotonic dystrophy should be considered in the differential diagnosis.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>We present the case of a 45-year-old Turkish man with Steinert's syndrome, who was not diagnosed until the age of 45.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In clinical practice, the persistence of diarrhea and fecal incontinence with muscle weakness should suggest that the physician perform an anal manometric study and electromyography. Neuromuscular disorders such as myotonic dystrophy should be considered in the differential diagnosis.</p