Risk Assessment Of Exotic Plant Diseases To The Australian Rice Industry, With Emphasis on Rice Blast

A pest risk assessment was carried out using all available information found in the literature and also two softwares developed by the CSIRO, CLIMEX and DYMEX. CLIMEX was used to assess the suitability of the climate in Australian rice growing area for each pest/disease and then when necessary and possible, a pest/disease model was created with DYMEX and run with Australian climatic data. The Australian climatic conditions and/or the rice growing practices were found to be unfavourable for the majority of the exotic diseases. However, two diseases of rice (rice blast and kernel smut) and one plant parasitic nematode genus (root nematodes) were identified as having the potential to threaten the Australian rice industry if ever introduced in south eastern Australia

Adjusting Medicare capitation payments using prior hospitalization data

The diagnostic cost group approach to a reimbursement model for health maintenance organizations is presented. Diagnostic information about previous hospitalizations is used to create empirically determined risk groups, using only diagnoses involving little or no discretion in the decision to hospitalize. Diagnostic cost group and other models (including Medicare\u27s current formula and other prior-use models) are tested for their ability to predict future costs, using R2 values and new measures of predictive performance. The diagnostic cost group models perform relatively well with respect to a range of criteria, including administrative feasibility, resistance to provider manipulation, and statistical accuracy

Laser Detection and Imaging Techniques for Surface Examination

A coherent laser probe provides the basis for the recording of complex SAW distributions. Using three or more scans, the surface wave velocity can be deducep with an accuracy of a few parts in 105. Such measurements are sufficiently sensitive to detect small changes in surface characteristics; as an example, results will be presented on the effect of doping a Si surface. It is also possible to improve the accuracy of the basic elastic constants of the material by reference to the velocity characteristic. Of particular importance is the fact that this technique provides evidence on the effective value of these constants close to a surface; it is, therefore potentially useful for surface layer characterisation. Surface defects can be detected by means of scattered waves in both the forward as the reverse directions. In principle, either can be used to image the defect. Using both these components, the defect size and location can be determined with improved accuracy

How important are resistance, dispersal ability, population density and mortality in temporally dynamic simulations of population connectivity? A case study of tigers in Southeast Asia

Development of landscape connectivity and spatial population models is challenging, given the uncertainty of parameters and the sensitivity of models to factors and their interactions over time. Using spatially and temporally explicit simulations, we evaluate the sensitivity of population distribution, abundance and connectivity of tigers in Southeast Asia to variations of resistance surface, dispersal ability, population density and mortality. Utilizing a temporally dynamic cumulative resistant kernel approach, we tested (1) effects and interactions of parameters on predicted population size, distribution and connectivity, and (2) displacement and divergence in scenarios across timesteps. We evaluated the effect of varying levels of factors on simulated population, cumulative resistance kernel extent, and kernel sum across nine timesteps, producing 24,300 simulations. We demonstrate that predicted population, range shifts, and landscape connectivity are highly sensitive to parameter values with significant interactions and relative strength of effects varying by timestep. Dispersal ability, mortality risk and their interaction dominated predictions. Further, population density had intermediate effects, landscape resistance had relatively low impacts, and mitigation of linear barriers (highways) via lowered resistance had little relative effect. Results are relevant to regional, long-term tiger population management, providing insight into potential population growth and range expansion across a landscape of global conservation priority

Female-biased introductions produce higher predicted population size and genetic diversity in simulations of a small, isolated tiger (Panthera tigris) population

Isolation of wildlife populations represents a key conservation challenge in the twenty-first century. This may necessitate consideration of translocations to ensure population viability. We investigated the potential population and genetic trajectory of a small, isolated tiger (Panthera tigris) population in Thailand’s Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai forest complex across a range of scenarios. Using an individual-based, spatially-explicit population modelling approach, we simulate population and genetic trajectories and evaluate the relative impact of translocations from a related population. Population and genetic trajectories in our study were most sensitive to sex and number of individuals translocated and translocation frequency. Translocation of females produced consistently higher population, allelic richness, and heterozygosity compared to equal numbers of males. Despite population increases, declines in allelic richness and heterozygosity across simulations were stark, with simulations predicting a mean decline of allelic richness and heterozygosity of 46.5% and 53.5% without intervention, respectively. Translocations of four females every generation or every other generation were required to prevent substantial heterozygosity declines. While translocations could increase population size, they may fail to prevent long-term loss of genetic diversity in small populations unless applied frequently. This reinforces the importance of incorporating realistic processes of genetic inheritance and gene flow in modelling small populations

Emergency Department Super-utilizer Program Involvement: Pilot Data and Methods Challenges

Super-utilizers are patients who use extreme amounts of medical services, often due to comorbid medical, social, and mental health issues. The MyLink Evaluation Project (MEP) studies MyLink, a program that connects super-utilizers with community support workers (CSWs) to improve the patient experience and reduce costs. The MEP-eligible population is ≥18 years old with at least 5 Emergency Department (ED) visits within 12 months and no other exclusions (e.g., language barriers, living out-of-region). During MEP’s pilot, among 58 eligible patients, 28 consented to being referred to MyLink and followed up. Of these, 7 could not be located for follow-up, 8 refused enrollment, and the remaining 13 enrolled and “engaged” (had at least 3 face-to-face contacts and developed an initial plan). All 13 enrollees were followed at 6 months vs. 4 of the 8 not enrolled. Consequently, we expect about 50% of eligible patients to consent to the main randomized study, with the vast majority of the MyLink-assigned group becoming engaged and completing follow-up. Achieving this requires identifying patients in real-time at the ED, frequent communications between researchers and CSWs, cultivating rapport during patient referral, enrollment, and follow-up, coordinating with other care management programs serving our patients, and adhering to MEP protocols that are rapidly evolving to address and overcome barriers. Challenges include: increasingly heavy CSW case-loads that decrease “warm” handoffs during the ED visit; problematic patient contact information; and incomplete program and follow-up assessments due to patient withdrawal, relocation, or death. These challenges lead to missing quality-of-life and healthcare utilization data needed for program evaluation. To reduce incomplete assessments, we lengthened time windows and expanded outreach methods (e.g., in-person upon ED revisit, web and medical record searches for updated contact information). We hypothesize that MyLink will improve patient quality-of-life and reduce ED utilization and total costs of care for super-utilizers

International Standards for Fetal Brain Structures Based on Serial Ultrasound Measurements From the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21 st Project

Objective: To create prescriptive growth standards for five fetal brain structures, measured by ultrasound, from healthy, well-nourished women, at low risk of impaired fetal growth and poor perinatal outcomes, taking part in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study (FGLS) of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. Methods: This was a complementary analysis of a large, population-based, multicentre, longitudinal study. We measured, in planes reconstructed from 3-dimensional (3D) ultrasound volumes of the fetal head at different time points in pregnancy, the size of the parieto-occipital fissure (POF), Sylvian fissure (SF), anterior horn of the lateral ventricle (AV), atrium of the posterior ventricle (PV) and cisterna magna (CM). The sample analysed was randomly selected from the overall FGLS population, ensuring an equal distribution amongst the eight diverse participating sites and of 3D ultrasound volumes across pregnancy (range: 15 - 36 weeks\u27 gestation). Fractional polynomials were used to the construct standards. Growth and development of the infants were assessed at 1 and 2 years of age to confirm their adequacy for constructing international standards. Results: From the entire FGLS cohort of 4321 women, 451 (10.4%) were randomly selected. After exclusions, 3D ultrasound volumes from 442 fetuses born without congenital malformations were used to create the charts. The fetal brain structures of interest were identified in 90% of cases. All structures showed increasing size with gestation and increasing variability for the POF, SF, PV and CM. The 3rd , 5th , 50th , 95th and 97th smoothed centile are presented. The 5th centile of POF and SF were 2.8 and 4.3 at 22 weeks and 4.2 and 9.4mm at 32 weeks respectively. The 95th centile of PV and CM were 8.5 and 7.4 at 22 weeks and 8.5 and 9.4mm at 32 weeks respectively. Conclusions: We have produced prescriptive size standards for fetal brain structures based on prospectively enrolled pregnancies at low risk of abnormal outcomes. We recommend these as international standards for the assessment of measurements obtained by ultrasound from fetal brain structures

Revolution and the end of history: Caryl Churchill's Mad Forest

Caryl Churchill’s Mad Forest, written and performed very soon after the Romanian revolution in 1990 and performed both in London and Bucharest, is a dynamic, inter-cultural play that represents a variety of perspectives on the revolutionary events, as well as oscillating between English and Romanian cultural and language coordinates. It has a peculiar topicality in its detailed and specific usages of different aspects of the revolutionary narrative, its sketches of family life before and after the revolution, and the inclusion of the revolution as reported in quasi-documentary-style testimony. The perspective in this article is one that places the play within a framework that thinks through Mad Forest’s relationship to the triumphant, neoliberalist heralding of “the end of history,” most famously argued by Francis Fukuyama in his 1989 article of that name. This discourse gained further confidence from the collapse of Eastern Europe, a collapse that was viewed by proponents of the end-of-history argument as signalling the permanent disintegration of communism and a victory for capitalism. However, Mad Forest is considered here as a play that reflects multiple perspectives on the revolutionary period and, while declining to provide political solutions as such, simultaneously refuses to accede to the implications of the end-of-history argument

A qualitative study of the activities performed by people involved in clinical decision support: recommended practices for success

Objective: To describe the activities performed by people involved in clinical decision support (CDS) at leading sites. Materials and methods We conducted ethnographic observations at seven diverse sites with a history of excellence in CDS using the Rapid Assessment Process and analyzed the data using a series of card sorts, informed by Linstone's Multiple Perspectives Model. Results: We identified 18 activities and grouped them into four areas. Area 1: Fostering relationships across the organization, with activities (a) training and support, (b) visibility/presence on the floor, (c) liaising between people, (d) administration and leadership, (e) project management, (f) cheerleading/buy-in/sponsorship, (g) preparing for CDS implementation. Area 2: Assembling the system with activities (a) providing technical support, (b) CDS content development, (c) purchasing products from vendors (d) knowledge management, (e) system integration. Area 3: Using CDS to achieve the organization's goals with activities (a) reporting, (b) requirements-gathering/specifications, (c) monitoring CDS, (d) linking CDS to goals, (e) managing data. Area 4: Participation in external policy and standards activities (this area consists of only a single activity). We also identified a set of recommendations associated with these 18 activities. Discussion All 18 activities we identified were performed at all sites, although the way they were organized into roles differed substantially. We consider these activities critical to the success of a CDS program. Conclusions: A series of activities are performed by sites strong in CDS, and sites adopting CDS should ensure they incorporate these activities into their efforts

Toward a wiki guide for obstetrics and gynecology trainees in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: The present paper describes the implementation of a novel, web-based, comprehensive national information hub for trainees in obstetrics and gynecology in Ireland. This was a unique development in the context of an entire medical specialty and was aligned with the communication strategy of the governing professional body. To date, trainee doctors working in Ireland undergo an incoherent and inconsistent new-staff induction and handover. In the healthcare setting, staff integration can have a major impact on the quality of patient care. METHODS: A free wiki software platform (PBworks) was used for the website, and freely available software (Google Analytics) was used to determine user interaction and level of engagement. RESULTS: In the first year, 442 user visits were recorded. The average duration of site visits was 4minutes 39seconds, which compared favorably with the 4-minute duration for visits to Wikipedia. CONCLUSION: The project was successful as a proof concept and in practice. Other medical faculties have expressed an interest in adopting the concept and developing it for their trainees. The concept is widely applicable to other countries, with the negligible cost relevant to resource-poor areas