A Competing-Risk Approach for Modeling Length of Stay in Severe Malaria Patients in South-East Asia and the Implications for Planning of Hospital Services.

Background: Management of severe malaria with limited resources requires comprehensive planning. Expected length of stay (LOS) and the factors influencing it are useful in the planning and optimisation of service delivery. Methods: A secondary, competing-risk approach to survival analysis was performed for 1217 adult severe malaria patients from the South-East Asia Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial. Results: Twenty percent of patients died; 95.4% within 7 days compared to 70.3% of those who were discharged. Median time to discharge was 6 days. Compared to quinine, artesunate increased discharge incidence (subdistribution-Hazard ratio, 1.24; [95% confidence interval 1.09-1.40]; P = .001) and decreased incidence of death (0.60; [0.46-0.80]; P < .001). Low Glasgow coma scale (discharge, 1.08 [1.06-1.11], P < .001; death, 0.85 [0.82-0.89], P < .001), high blood urea-nitrogen (discharge, 0.99 [0.99-0.995], P < .001; death, 1.00 [1.00-1.01], P = .012), acidotic base-excess (discharge, 1.05 [1.03-1.06], P < .001; death, 0.90 [0.88-0.93], P < .001), and development of shock (discharge, 0.25 [0.13-0.47], P < .001; death, 2.14 [1.46-3.12], P < .001), or coma (discharge, 0.46 [0.32-0.65], P < .001; death, 2.30 [1.58-3.36], P < .001) decreased cumulative incidence of discharge and increased incidence of death. Conventional Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimated cumulative incidence compared to competing-risk model. Conclusions: Clinical factors on admission and during hospitalisation influence LOS in severe malaria, presenting targets to improve health and service efficiency. Artesunate has the potential to increase LOS, which should be accounted for when planning services. In-hospital death is a competing risk for discharge; an important consideration in LOS models to reduce overestimation of risk and misrepresentation of associations

Spread of anti-malarial drug resistance: Mathematical model with implications for ACT drug policies

BACKGROUND: Most malaria-endemic countries are implementing a change in anti-malarial drug policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). The impact of different drug choices and implementation strategies is uncertain. Data from many epidemiological studies in different levels of malaria endemicity and in areas with the highest prevalence of drug resistance like borders of Thailand are certainly valuable. Formulating an appropriate dynamic data-driven model is a powerful predictive tool for exploring the impact of these strategies quantitatively. METHODS: A comprehensive model was constructed incorporating important epidemiological and biological factors of human, mosquito, parasite and treatment. The iterative process of developing the model, identifying data needed, and parameterization has been taken to strongly link the model to the empirical evidence. The model provides quantitative measures of outcomes, such as malaria prevalence/incidence and treatment failure, and illustrates the spread of resistance in low and high transmission settings. The model was used to evaluate different anti-malarial policy options focusing on ACT deployment. RESULTS: The model predicts robustly that in low transmission settings drug resistance spreads faster than in high transmission settings, and treatment failure is the main force driving the spread of drug resistance. In low transmission settings, ACT slows the spread of drug resistance to a partner drug, especially at high coverage rates. This effect decreases exponentially with increasing delay in deploying the ACT and decreasing rates of coverage. In the high transmission settings, however, drug resistance is driven by the proportion of the human population with a residual drug level, which gives resistant parasites some survival advantage. The spread of drug resistance could be slowed down by controlling presumptive drug use and avoiding the use of combination therapies containing drugs with mismatched half-lives, together with reducing malaria transmission through vector control measures. CONCLUSION: This paper has demonstrated the use of a comprehensive mathematical model to describe malaria transmission and the spread of drug resistance. The model is strongly linked to the empirical evidence obtained from extensive data available from various sources. This model can be a useful tool to inform the design of treatment policies, particularly at a time when ACT has been endorsed by WHO as first-line treatment for falciparum malaria worldwide

Infectivity of Chronic Malaria Infections and Its Consequences for Control and Elimination

Assessing the importance of targeting the chronic Plasmodium falciparum malaria reservoir is pivotal as the world moves toward malaria eradication. Through the lens of a mathematical model, we show how, for a given malaria prevalence, the relative infectivity of chronic individuals determines what intervention tools are predicted be the most effective. Crucially, in a large part of the parameter space where elimination is theoretically possible, it can be achieved solely through improved case management. However, there are a significant number of settings where malaria elimination requires not only good vector control but also a mass drug administration campaign. Quantifying the relative infectiousness of chronic malaria across a range of epidemiological settings would provide essential information for the design of effective malaria elimination strategies. Given the difficulties obtaining this information, we also provide a set of epidemiological metrics that can be used to guide policy in the absence of such data

Modulating effects of plasma containing anti-malarial antibodies on in vitro anti-malarial drug susceptibility in Plasmodium falciparum

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The efficacy of anti-malarial drugs is determined by the level of parasite susceptibility, anti-malarial drug bioavailability and pharmacokinetics, and host factors including immunity. Host immunity improves the <it>in vivo </it>therapeutic efficacy of anti-malarial drugs, but the mechanism and magnitude of this effect has not been characterized. This study characterized the effects of 'immune' plasma to <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>on the <it>in vitro </it>susceptibility of <it>P. falciparum </it>to anti-malarial drugs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Titres of antibodies against blood stage antigens (mainly the ring-infected erythrocyte surface antigen [RESA]) were measured in plasma samples obtained from Thai patients with acute falciparum malaria. 'Immune' plasma was selected and its effects on <it>in vitro </it>parasite growth and multiplication of the Thai <it>P. falciparum </it>laboratory strain TM267 were assessed by light microscopy. The <it>in vitro </it>susceptibility to quinine and artesunate was then determined in the presence and absence of 'immune' plasma using the ³H-hypoxanthine uptake inhibition method. Drug susceptibility was expressed as the concentrations causing 50% and 90% inhibition (IC₅₀and IC₉₀), of ³H-hypoxanthine uptake.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Incubation with 'immune' plasma reduced parasite maturation and decreased parasite multiplication in a dose dependent manner. ³H-hypoxanthine incorporation after incubation with 'immune' plasma was decreased significantly compared to controls (median [range]; 181.5 [0 to 3,269] cpm versus 1,222.5 [388 to 5,932] cpm) (<it>p</it>= 0.001). As a result 'immune' plasma reduced apparent susceptibility to quinine substantially; median (range) IC₅₀6.4 (0.5 to 23.8) ng/ml versus 221.5 (174.4 to 250.4) ng/ml (<it>p </it>= 0.02), and also had a borderline effect on artesunate susceptibility; IC₅₀0.2 (0.02 to 0.3) ng/ml versus 0.8 (0.2 to 2.3) ng/ml (<it>p </it>= 0.08). Effects were greatest at low concentrations, changing the shape of the concentration-effect relationship. IC₉₀values were not significantly affected; median (range) IC₉₀448.0 (65 to > 500) ng/ml versus 368.8 (261 to 501) ng/ml for quinine (<it>p </it>> 0.05) and 17.0 (0.1 to 29.5) ng/ml versus 7.6 (2.3 to 19.5) ng/ml for artesunate (<it>p </it>= 0.4).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>'Immune' plasma containing anti-malarial antibodies inhibits parasite development and multiplication and increases apparent <it>in vitro </it>anti-malarial drug susceptibility of <it>P. falciparum</it>. The IC₉₀was much less affected than the IC₅₀measurement.</p

Modelling the optimal dosing schedule for artemether-lumefantrine chemoprophylaxis against malaria

Objective: Antimalarial chemoprophylaxis for high risk groups in endemic areas of Southeast Asia has the potential to reduce malaria transmission and accelerate elimination. However, the optimal choice of medication and dosing for many potential candidates is not clear. For a planned randomised controlled trial of prophylaxis for forest goers in Cambodia, artemether-lumefantrine (AL) was selected because of its ongoing efficacy and excellent tolerability and safety. As AL had not been used before for this purpose, a previously published pooled pharmacometric meta-model was used to determine the optimal dosing schedule. Results: A full 3 day AL treatment course given twice a month, and twice daily treatment given once a week, resulted in trough concentrations consistently above the therapeutic threshold of 200 ng/mL. However, the most favourable exposure profile, and arguably most practical dosing scenario, was an initial 3 day full AL treatment course followed by twice daily dosing given once a week for the duration of chemoprevention. The latter was adopted as the dosing schedule for the trial

Coma in fatal adult human malaria is not caused by cerebral oedema

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of brain oedema in the pathophysiology of cerebral malaria is controversial. Coma associated with severe <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria is multifactorial, but associated with histological evidence of parasitized erythrocyte sequestration and resultant microvascular congestion in cerebral vessels. To determine whether these changes cause breakdown of the blood-brain barrier and resultant perivascular or parenchymal cerebral oedema, histology, immunohistochemistry and image analysis were used to define the prevalence of histological patterns of oedema and the expression of specific molecular pathways involved in water balance in the brain in adults with fatal falciparum malaria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The brains of 20 adult Vietnamese patients who died of severe malaria were examined for evidence of disrupted vascular integrity. Immunohistochemistry and image analysis was performed on brainstem sections for activation of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor 2 and expression of the aquaporin 4 (AQP4) water channel protein. Fibrinogen immunostaining was assessed as evidence of blood-brain barrier leakage and perivascular oedema formation. Correlations were performed with clinical, biochemical and neuropathological parameters of severe malaria infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The presence of oedema, plasma protein leakage and evidence of VEGF signalling were heterogeneous in fatal falciparum malaria and did not correlate with pre-mortem coma. Differences in vascular integrity were observed between brain regions with the greatest prevalence of disruption in the brainstem, compared to the cortex or midbrain. There was a statistically non-significant trend towards higher AQP4 staining in the brainstem of cases that presented with coma (<it>P </it>= .02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Histological evidence of cerebral oedema or immunohistochemical evidence of localised loss of vascular integrity did not correlate with the occurrence of pre-mortem coma in adults with fatal falciparum malaria. Enhanced expression of AQP4 water channels in the brainstem may, therefore, reflect a mix of both neuropathological or attempted neuroprotective responses to oedema formation.</p