PREDVIĐANJE BANKROTA POMOĆU POLU-PARAMETARSKOG MODELA JEDINSTVENOG INDEKSA

Semi-parametric methods are virtually neglected in the bankruptcy prediction literature. This paper compares the logit model, as the standard parametric model for bankruptcy prediction, to the semi-parametric model developed by Klein and Spady (1993). Special care is devoted to the effect of choice-based sampling prediction accuracy. The choice of the sampling and estimation method lead to a similar trade offs. Using choice-based sampling and logit model leads to minimization of risk exposure. Samples unbalanced across groups and the semi-parametric method allow for better overall prediction accuracy and thus profit maximization.Polu-parametarski modeli su doslovno zanemareni u literaturi o predviđanju bankrota. Ovaj rad uspoređuje logit model, kao standardni parametarski model za predviđanje bankrota, sa poluparametarskim modelom kojeg su razvili Klein i Spady (1993). Posebna je pažnja posvećena efektu choice-based uzorkovanja na točnost predviđanja. Odabir metode uzorkovanja i procjene dovele su do sličnih balansiranja (trade offs). Korištenje choice-based uzorkovanja i logit modela dovodi do minimaliziranja rizika. Nebalansirani uzorci i polu-parametarska metoda omogućuju generalno bolju kvalitetu predviđanja te tako i maksimizaciju profita

Financial integration and financial development in transition economies : what happens during financial crises ?

This papers provides an empirical analysis of the role of financial development and financial integration in the growth dynamics of transition countries. We focus on the role of financial integration in determining the impact of financial development on growth, distinguishing "normal times" from periods of financial crises. In addition to confirming the significant positive effect on growth exerted by financial development and financial integration, our estimates show that a higher degree of financial openness tends to reduce the contractionary effect of financial crises, by cushioning the effect on the domestic supply of credit. Consequently, the high reliance on international capital flows by transition countries does not necessarily increase their financial fragility. This implies that financial protectionism is a self-defeating policy, at least for transition countries.Transition economies, financial integration, financial crises, economic growth, threshold effects.

Control of inflation on the road to the European Monetary Union : the case of Slovenia

Published online: 8 December 2014This paper analyzes the monetary policy of Slovenia on the path to euro adoption. Analysis of the exchange rate pass-through effect supports the link between the practice of real exchange rate targeting within the managed float regime and inflationary developments. With a counterfactual policy experiment in a cointegrating vector autoregressive (VAR) model, it is shown that stabilizing the nominal exchange rate and entering into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) sustainably reduced inflation to a level compatible with the Maastricht criteria, without creating any significant imbalances in the economy. For this reason, it can be expected that the stabilizing effects of exchange rate stability will continue under the European Monetary Union (EMU)

Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?

Using both macro- and industry-level data this paper analyses the non-linear effects of financial development and international financial integration on economic growth in Europe. Special attention is devoted to modeling threshold effects with respect to the depth of financial markets as a measure of economies' absorption capacity. Results reveal evidence of significant non-linear effects, with less developed European countries gaining more from financial development. In contrast, benefits of international financial integration become significant at higher levels of financial development. The data show that monetary integration in Europe significantly contributed to a higher degree of financial integration. Entry of new EU members to the European Monetary Union may thus be the mechanism ensuring a virtuous development circle, as the adoption of the Euro may allow the development of domestic financial markets and financial integration to go hand-in-hand

Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?

Using both macro- and industry-level data this paper analyses the non-linear effects of financial development and international financial integration on economic growth in Europe. Special attention is devoted to modeling threshold effects with respect to the depth of financial markets as a measure of economies' absorption capacity. Results reveal evidence of significant non-linear effects, with less developed European countries gaining more from financial development. In contrast, benefits of international financial integration become significant at higher levels of financial development. The data show that monetary integration in Europe significantly contributed to a higher degree of financial integration. Entry of new EU members to the European Monetary Union may thus be the mechanism ensuring a virtuous development circle, as the adoption of the Euro may allow the development of domestic financial markets and financial integration to go hand-in-hand.

Financial integration and financial development in transition economies: What happens during financial crises?

<p><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">This paper provides an empirical analysis of the role of financial development and financial integration in the growth dynamics of transition countries. We focus on the role of financial integration in determining the impact of financial development on growth, distinguishing “normal times” from periods of financial crises. In addition to confirming the significant positive effect on growth exerted by financial development and financial integration, our estimates show that a higher degree of financial openness tends to reduce the contractionary effect of financial crises, by cushioning the effect on the domestic supply of credit. Consequently, the high reliance on international capital flows by transition countries does not necessarily increase their financial fragility. This implies that financial protectionism is a self-defeating policy, at least for transition countries.</span></p&gt

Financial integration and financial development in transition economies: What happens during financial crises?

Italy’s first Fascist government applied a large-scale privatization policy between 1922 and 1925. The government privatized the state monopoly of match sale, eliminated the State monopoly on life insurances, sold most of the State-owned telephone networks and services to private firms, reprivatized the largest metal machinery producer, and awarded concessions to private firms to build and operate motorways. While ideological considerations may have had a certain influence, privatization was used mainly as a political tool to build confidence among industrialists and to increase support for the government and the Partito Nazionale Fascista. Privatization also contributed to balancing the budget, which was the core objective of Fascist economic policy in its first phase.transition economies,financial integration,financial crises,economic growth,threshold effects

Financial integration and financial development in transition economies : what happens during financial crises ?.

This papers provides an empirical analysis of the role of financial development and financial integration in the growth dynamics of transition countries. We focus on the role of financial integration in determining the impact of financial development on growth, distinguishing "normal times" from periods of financial crises. In addition to confirming the significant positive effect on growth exerted by financial development and financial integration, our estimates show that a higher degree of financial openness tends to reduce the contractionary effect of financial crises, by cushioning the effect on the domestic supply of credit. Consequently, the high reliance on international capital flows by transition countries does not necessarily increase their financial fragility. This implies that financial protectionism is a self-defeating policy, at least for transition countries.Transition economies, financial integration, financial crises, economic growth, threshold effects.