Thinking Ahead: The Decision Problem

We propose a model of bounded rationality based on time-costs of deliberating current and future decisions. We model an individual decision maker%u2019s thinking process as a thought-experiment that takes time and let the decision maker %u201Cthink ahead%u201D about future decision problems in yet unrealized states of nature. By formulating an intertemporal, state-contingent, planning problem, which may involve costly deliberation in every state of nature, and by letting the decision-maker deliberate ahead of the realization of a state, we attempt to capture the basic idea that individuals generally do not think through a complete action-plan. Instead, individuals prioritize their thinking and leave deliberations on less important decisions to the time or event when they arise.

Dynamic adverse selection and debt

This paper argues that the strategic use of debt favours the revelation of information in dynamic adverse selection problems. Our argument is based on the idea that debt is a credible commitment to end long term relationships. Consequently, debt encourages a privately informed party to disclose its information at early stages of a relationship. We illustrate our point with the financing decision of a monopolist selling a good to a buyer whose valuation is private information. A high level of (renegotiable) debt, by increasing the scope for liquidation, may induce the high valuation buyer to buy early at a high price and thus increase the monopolist's expected payoff. By affecting the buyer's strategy, it may reduce the probability of excessive liquidation. We investigate the consequences of good durability and we examine the way debt may alleviate the ratchet effect.Dynamic adverse selection, durable good, ratchet effect, renegotiation, financial constraint, debt

Dynamic Yardstick Regulation

This paper shows that the inability of regulators to commit to long-term contracts is irrelevant when there is some competition between regulated firms and when firms' private information is correlated. This sharply contrasts with the dynamic of regulation without such competition. The paper also explores what limitations on yardstick mechanisms can justify the use of long-term contracts. We found that the inability of a regulator to commit not to renegotiate long-term contracts is without consequences even if there is a bound on transfers that a firm can be asked to pay. In contrast, short-term contracting fails to implement the commitment solution with constraints on transfers. Second, absent current competition, the possibility of future entry allows the regulator to implement the first-best with a renegotiation-proof long-term contract whereas this cannot be achieved with short-term contracting.Yardstick regulation, ratchet effect, short and long-term contracts, commitment.

Soft budget constraint and stock price information

This article investigates the ability of regulatory agencies to keep firms to fixed budgets. The budget implemented at an interim date is always superior to the one efficient ex ante, since, at the interim stage, regulators do not internalize the disincentive effect of their intervention on firm's effort. Budget constraints are more or less soft according to the information available to regulators. The ability of financial markets to generate information is endogenized. It is shown that stock price information may increase the softness of the budget constraint, decrease firms' incentives to exert effort and may reduce social welfare. It also appears that the "softness" of these constraints depends on the type of claims used to finance initial investments. A straightforward application of the model sheds light on the privatisation decision

The Defeasance of Control Rights

We analyze one frequently used clause in public bonds called covenant defeasance. Covenant defeasance allows the bond issuer to remove all of the bond's covenants by placing the remaining outstanding payments with a trustee in an escrow account to be paid out on schedule. Bond covenants are predominantly noncontingent, action-limiting covenants. By giving the issuer an option to remove covenants, noncontingent control rights can be made state-contingent even when no interim signals are available. We provide a theoretical justi cation for covenant defeasance and show empirically that such a clause allows for the inclusion of more covenants in public bond issues. In line with the model's prediction, our empirical analysis documents a 13-25 basis points premium for defeasible bonds. This premium amounts to an annual saving of about $1m per year, or$11m over the lifetime of an average bond.Bonds; Covenants; Defeasance; Renegotiation

A theory of supervision with endogenous transaction costs

We propose a theory of supervision with endogenous transaction costs. A principal delegates part of his authority to a supervisor who can acquire soft information about an agent's productivity. If the supervisor were risk-neutral, the principal would simply make the better informed supervisor residual claimant for the hierarchy's profit. Under risk-aversion, the optimal contract trades-off the supervisor's incentives to reveal his information with an insurance motive. This contract can be identified with the one obtained in a simple hard information model of hierarchical collusion with exogenous transaction costs. Now, transaction costs are endogenous and depend on the collusion stake, the accuracy of the supervisory technology and the supervisor's degree of risk-aversion. We then discuss various implications of the model for the design and management of organisations

A Theory of Supervision with Endogenous Transaction Costs

We propose a theory of supervision with endogenous transaction costs. A principal delegates part of his authority to a supervisor who can acquire soft information about an agent's productivity. If the supervisor were risk-neutral, the principal would simply make the better informed supervisor residual claimant for the hierarchy's profit. Under risk-aversion, the optimal contract trades-off the supervisor's incentives to reveal his information with an insurance motive. This contract can be identified with the one obtained in a simple hard information model of hierarchical collusion with exogenous transaction costs. Now, transaction costs are endogenous and depend on the collusion stake, the accuracy of the supervisory technology and the supervisor's degree of risk-aversion. We then discuss various implications of the model for the design and management of organisations.Supervision, soft information, collusion, endogenous transaction costs

Excessive Continuation and Dynamic Agency Costs of Debt

This paper analyses the incentives of the equityholders of a leveraged company to shut it down in a continuous time, stochastic environment. Keeping the firm as an ongoing concern has an option value but equity and debt holders value it differently. Equityholders' decisions exhibit excessive continuation and reduce firm's value. Using a compound exchange option approach, we characterise the resulting agency costs of debt, derive the "price" of these costs and analyse their dynamics. We also show how agency costs can be reduced by the design of debt and the possibility of renegotiation