Teorías probabilistas sobre coeficientes de seguridad

Teorías probabilistas sobre coeficientes de segurida

Election of Water Resources Management Entity Using a Multi-Criteria Decision (MCD) Method in Salta Province (Argentine)

At present, the water resources are a strategic element each time more necessary and limited becoming a source of conflicts. For that, it is fundamental to create an independent and competent entity with good reputation and social acceptation. This entity must be able to obtain, store and process all data dispersed in different entities creating a network for these purposes. Finally, it must be able to organize different branches between the government and the final users. Using one of the wellknown Multicriteria Decision Methods(MCDM) with several realistic alternatives and several criteria identified in expert seminars in Salta and Madrid, we have obtained hopeful results and more recently new modifications introduced have generated better results

Comparison of Brans Promethee multicriteria decision method and Promethee modified by authors for the optimization of an erosion control integral plan in Chaco area in Salta province (Argentine)

Chaco area is situated in the Province of Salta at North West of Argentine. The desertification is a big problem. In order to mitigate the problem it is necessary to take into account not only pedologic criteria but the economical, environmental, cultural and sociological criteria. Six sub zones have been established following previous studies. Eight criteria and six alternatives have been introduced in the model. Following the results of the study carried out by a collaborative project between UPM and UCS financed by AECID (1) were established several initial matrix. Brans Promethee multicriteria decision method (MCDM) was applied and the authors modified that method introducing weights like in Electre metho

Influence of thresholding in mass and entropy dimension of 3-D soil images

With the advent of modern non-destructive tomography techniques, there have been many attempts to analyze 3-D pore space features mainly concentrating on soil structure. This analysis opens a challenging opportunity to develop techniques for quantifying and describe pore space properties, one of them being fractal analysis. Undisturbed soil samples were collected from four horizons of Brazilian soil and 3-D images at 45μm resolution. Four different threshold criteria were used to transform computed tomography (CT) grey-scale imagery into binary imagery (pore/solid) to estimate their mass fractal dimension (Dm) and entropy dimension (D1). Each threshold criteria had a direct influence on the porosity obtained, varying from 8 to 24% in one of the samples, and on the fractal dimensions. Linear scaling was observed over all the cube sizes, however depending on the range of cube sizes used in the analysis, Dm could vary from 3.00 to 2.20, realizing that the threshold influenced mainly the scaling in the smallest cubes (length of size from 1 to 16 voxels). Dm and D1 showed a logarithmic relation with the apparent porosity in the image, however, the increase of both values respect to porosity defined a characteristic feature for each horizon that can be related to soil texture and depth

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, to select alternatives and the development of plans for the adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades

Election of Water Resources Management Entity in Salta Province (Argentine) Taking Into Account the Probability of Future Situation

In the decision-making, in many cases, we need to know the situation in a next step, if another alternative was adopted or which would be the best alternative, in that moment, with the situation that is envisaged. Decision making for election of regional water resources management entities shows a high complexity, due to much interrelation between aspects, decision makers and planning procedures. We make the decision following the Multi-criteria Discrete Decision Methods and we combine this procedure with the Bayesian methods and dynamic programming. The new decisional matrix, weights and the utility functions are obtained under uncertainty. We combine uncertainty and decision-making. An objective function, relating effects of decisions to actions, often cannot be specified in advance. This is an approach of MCDM to decide in conflict situations

The Learning of the Mathematical Models to Aid Decision Making in the High Level Engineering Schools?

At present, in the University curricula in most countries, the decision theory and the mathematical models to aid decision making is not included, as in the graduate program like in Doctored and Master´s programs. In the Technical School of High Level Agronomic Engineers of the Technical University of Madrid (ETSIA-UPM), the need to offer to the future engineers training in a subject that could help them to take decisions in their profession was felt. Along the life, they will have to take a lot of decisions. Ones, will be important and others no. In the personal level, they will have to take several very important decisions, like the election of a career, professional work, or a couple, but in the professional field, the decision making is the main role of the Managers, Politicians and Leaders. They should be decision makers and will be paid for it. Therefore, nobody can understand that such a professional that is called to practice management responsibilities in the companies, does not take training in such an important matter. For it, in the year 2000, it was requested to the University Board to introduce in the curricula an optional qualified subject of the second cycle with 4,5 credits titled " Mathematical Methods for Making Decisions ". A program was elaborated, the didactic material prepared and programs as Maple, Lingo, Math Cad, etc. installed in several IT classrooms, where the course will be taught. In the course 2000-2001 this subject was offered with a great acceptance that exceeded the forecasts of capacity and had to be prepared more classrooms. This course in graduate program took place in the Department of Applied Mathematics to the Agronomic Engineering, as an extension of the credits dedicated to Mathematics in the career of Engineering

Decision theories used in planning of areas around La Colacha basin in Córdoba (Argentine) considering natural and human hazards

The authors of U.P.M. have had relations with Argentine Universities and Administrations, in part with J.M.Cisneros that is Professor at Universidad Nacional de Rio Cuarto in Prov. de Córdoba Arg., and have applied Decision Theories with Mathematic tools for the planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas and especially of La Colacha bassin enlarged with larger areas around it as “Cuenca de los Arroyos Menores” at West and South of Rio Cuarto. These large flat lands have loess soils brought by winds from Los Andes that are much far at West, there is a very old line of not high mountains at West near the study area from which rivers flow with little slopes to somehow lower flat areas at West with some marshes. Rivers through loess get regressive erosions with rains forming kilometres long ditches in the loess called “cárcavas” some meters deep and quite large across otherwise flat agricultural lands, and J.M. Cisneros, that has numerous publications about local soil uses, has directed diverse genie rural works to halt the regression of some of them. Part of the study is about protection against floods and “cárcavas”. There are famous experiences and records of higher inundations of large areas by rivers. Latitude of Rio Cuarto is 31º25’ South, that area is temperate refreshed by south winds, Zonda föhn winds from West being hotter and drier, and there are monsoons and so winter in July is dry and summer and December has rains, that average 829mm per year. Wind erosion and fires occur frequently on these loess soils in winter. This is an excellent area for agriculture but some actual uses may be not sustainable in long term such as excesses with genetically engineered soy, and the authors have studied aided with mathematical models (ELECTRE I, PROMETHEE and Expert Choice) the preferences of various alternative systems of land use (Autochthonous forest, High value forest, Traditional farms, Erosion control Crop with agriculture use, and Erosion control Crop with industrial use (biomass) ) in view of diverse Criteria (Water erosion index, Eolian erosion index, Implementation facility, Water resources, Economical Benefits, Hand power, Environmental Impacts, social Acceptance), as contribution for territorial planning, in part in relation with local official agencie

Use of decision theory tools for qualification of the lands of the Community of Madrid

Assuming the goal of getting aids for valuation or classification of a wide collection of types of soils or lands of a given region from soil science profiles or data sets obtained for each land to determine soil quality and suitability for uses such as farming, forestry or conservation, the authors started with a CM study containing a comprehensive official collection of soils of the Community of Madrid CM, sets of attributes and a SQ classification for general agrologic aptitude goal based on minimum requirements for soil attributes using traditional methods