The Demographic Transition

Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behaviour that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates. Contrary to early descriptions of the transition, fertility in pre-modem societies was well below the maximum that might be attained. However, it was kept at moderate levels by customs (such as late marriage or prolonged breast-feeding) not related to the number of children already born. Fertility has been reduced during the demographic transition by the adoption of contraception as a deliberate means of avoiding additional births. An extensive study of the transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development. It also suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions. Sufficient modernization nevertheless seems always to bring the transition to low fertility and mortality

The Effect of Age Misreporting in China on the Calculation of Mortality Rates at Very High Ages

When mortality rates by age are calculated from recorded deaths and enumerated populations, rates at higher ages are typically in error because of misstated ages. Mortality rates for China in 1981 have been calculated from the number of deaths in 1981 in each household recorded in the 1982 census, and from the census population back-projected one year. Because age was determined from date of birth, and because persons of the Chinese culture have very precise knowledge of date of birth, the mortality rates even at high ages should be unusually accurate. This expectation is fulfilled for most of China, but severe misreporting of age is found in a province that contains a large minority of a non-Han nationality, which lacks precise knowledge of date of birth. Although the province contains only 1.3% of China’s population, male death rates above age 90 for all of China are distorted seriously by the erroneous data from this location

The Decline of Remarriage: Evidence From German Village Populations in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

Family reconstitution data for fourteen German village populations permit the examination of remarriage during the eighteenth and nineteenth cen turies. The results provide compelling evidence for a secular decline in the tenden cy to remarry. Pronounced age and sex differentials in the likelihood of remar riage were evident: widows were far less likely to remarry than widowers, and the probability of remarriage declined rapidly with age, particularly for women. The probability of remarriage was also inversely associated with the number and age of children. There were, however, no clear differences in either the probability of remarriage or its tendency to decline over time among major occupational groups. The decline in remarriage probabilities was caused in part by declines in adult mortality, which gradually raised the ages of surviving spouses to levels at which remarriage has historically been rather unlikely. However, age-specific marriage probabilities also declined, affecting both men and women and all oc cupational groups, suggesting the presence of a social change of wide scope. Some comments on possible factors contributing to the decline of remarriage are presented. The need for a comprehensive explanation of remarriage trends and differentials remains an important challenge for family historians.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68212/2/10.1177_036319908501000103.pd

Short-Term Trends in Bastardy in Taiwan

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68002/2/10.1177_036319908000500303.pd

Preferences for the Sex of Offspring and Demographic Behavior in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century Germany: an Examination of Evidence From Village Genealogies

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68167/2/10.1177_036319908000500202.pd

Relacion entre poblacion y desarrollo economico

Incluye Bibliografí

G. M. Farooq and G. B. Simmons (eels.). Fertility in Developing Countries. London: The MacMillan Press (for the International Labour Office). 1985. xXiii + 533 pp.

In 1972 the United Nations Fund for Population Activities initiated support for a programme of research within the International Labour Organization on population and employment. Determinants of fertility have been a major theme in this research programme, as is evident in an earlier Progress Report on the programme [3]. The book here reviewed is an attempt to distil some general conclusions from this research, and to present ideas and evidence not included in the 1982 publication. The first section of the book contains a summary of theories of fertility determination; a brief description of the findings of empirical research on fertility, and of the problems of empirical research on the economics of fertility; some comments on the relevance for policy of research on the economics of fertility; and some suggestions for more fruitful research strategies. The second part deals with selected methodological problems: the definition and measurement of fertility; econometric problems of analysing cross-sectional and time-series data; estimation and interpretation of aggregate data; specification and estimation of models fertility; and the uses of simulation techniques in studying the effects of economic policy on fertility. As this list of topics indicates, the emphasis in this section (and in most of the book) is on research on fertility by economists. The last chapter in the second section, however, describes anthropological approaches to the study of fertility. The final section contains six case studies on Kenya, Nigeria, rural India, rural Turkey, Yugoslavia, and a comparative study of Costa Rica and Mexico