Early Response to COVID-19 in the Philippines

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with weak health systems are especially vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we describe the challenges and early response of the Philippine Government, focusing on travel restrictions, community interventions, risk communication and testing, from 30 January 2020 when the first case was reported, to 21 March 2020. Our narrative provides a better understanding of the specific limitations of the Philippines and other LMICs, which could serve as basis for future action to improve national strategies for current and future public health outbreaks and emergencies

Effectiveness of Peer Counseling and Membership in Breastfeeding Support Groups in Promoting Optimal Breastfeeding Behaviors in the Philippines

Background The prevalence of early initiation of breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) at 6 months remain low in the Philippines. To help meet the 90% early initiation of breastfeeding target and to improve infant and young child feeding practices in the Philippines, the Millennium Development Goals - Fund 2030 Joint Programme (JP) on Ensuring Food Security and Nutrition for Children 0–24 months old was implemented. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of visits by peer counselors during pregnancy and after delivery, and membership in breastfeeding support groups in promoting these optimal breastfeeding practices. Methods We used data from the Endline Survey of the JP to study the effects of prenatal and postnatal peer counselor visits, and membership in breastfeeding support groups, and their possible interactions with initiation of breastfeeding within 1 hour of birth among children aged 0 to 24 months and EBF at 6 months among children aged 6 to 24 months, while adjusting for confounding. We used logistic regression methods for survey data to assess these associations. Results Of the 2343 mother-infant pairs, only 1500 (63.1%) practiced early initiation of breastfeeding. Of the 1865 children aged 6 months or older, only 621 (34.7%) were exclusively breastfed at 6 months. After adjusting for confounding variables, there was no strong evidence that peer counselor visits were associated with early initiation or EBF at 6 months. However, members of breastfeeding support groups had 1.49 times higher odds of early initiation of breastfeeding (95% CI [Confidence Interval] 1.12, 1.98) and 1.65 times higher odds of EBF (95% CI 1.20, 2.24) compared to those who were not members of breastfeeding support groups. There was no interaction between the different exposure variables and early initiation and EBF at 6 months. Conclusions Our findings suggest breastfeeding support groups may be institutionalized to promote both early initiation of breastfeeding and EBF in the Philippines, while the role of peer counselors in promoting optimal breastfeeding behaviors should be further reviewed. Our suggestion to integrate non-healthcare professionals to promote early initiation of breastfeeding and EBF could be tested in future intervention studies

Data Sharing in Southeast Asia During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: When a new pathogen emerges, consistent case reporting is critical for public health surveillance. Tracking cases geographically and over time is key for understanding the spread of an infectious disease and effectively designing interventions to contain and mitigate an epidemic. In this paper we describe the reporting systems on COVID-19 in Southeast Asia during the first wave in 2020, and highlight the impact of specific reporting methods. Methods: We reviewed key epidemiological variables from various sources including a regionally comprehensive dataset, national trackers, dashboards, and case bulletins for 11 countries during the first wave of the epidemic in Southeast Asia. We recorded timelines of shifts in epidemiological reporting systems and described the differences in how epidemiological data are reported across countries and timepoints. Results: Our findings suggest that countries in Southeast Asia generally reported precise and detailed epidemiological data during the first wave of the pandemic. Changes in reporting rarely occurred for demographic data, while reporting shifts for geographic and temporal data were frequent. Most countries provided COVID-19 individual-level data daily using HTML and PDF, necessitating scraping and extraction before data could be used in analyses. Conclusion: Our study highlights the importance of more nuanced analyses of COVID-19 epidemiological data within and across countries because of the frequent shifts in reporting. As governments continue to respond to impacts on health and the economy, data sharing also needs to be prioritised given its foundational role in policymaking, and in the implementation and evaluation of interventions

COVID-19 Vaccine Brand Hesitancy and Other Challenges to Vaccination in the Philippines

Effective and safe COVID-19 vaccines have been developed at a rapid and unprecedented pace to control the spread of the virus, and prevent hospitalisations and deaths. However, COVID-19 vaccine uptake is challenged by vaccine hesitancy and anti-vaccination sentiments, a global shortage of vaccine supply, and inequitable vaccine distribution especially among low- and middle-income countries including the Philippines. In this paper, we explored vaccination narratives and challenges experienced and observed by Filipinos during the early vaccination period. We interviewed 35 individuals from a subsample of 1,599 survey respondents 18 years and older in the Philippines. The interviews were conducted in Filipino, Cebuano, and/or English via online platforms such as Zoom or via phone call. All interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim, translated, and analysed using inductive content analysis. To highlight the complex reasons for delaying and/or refusing COVID-19 vaccines, we embedded our findings within the social ecological model. Our analysis showed that individual perceptions play a major role in the decision to vaccinate. Such perceptions are shaped by exposure to (mis)information amplified by the media, the community, and the health system. Social networks may either positively or negatively impact vaccination uptake, depending on their views on vaccines. Political issues contribute to vaccine brand hesitancy, resulting in vaccination delays and refusals. Perceptions about the inefficiency and inflexibility of the system also create additional barriers to the vaccine rollout in the country, especially among vulnerable and marginalised groups. Recognising and addressing concerns at all levels are needed to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake and reach. Strengthening health literacy is a critical tool to combat misinformation that undermines vaccine confidence. Vaccination systems must also consider the needs of marginalised and vulnerable groups to ensure their access to vaccines. In all these efforts to improve vaccine uptake, governments will need to engage with communities to ‘co-create’ solutions

COVID-19 vaccine brand hesitancy and other challenges to vaccination in the Philippines

Effective and safe COVID-19 vaccines have been developed at a rapid and unprecedented pace to control the spread of the virus, and prevent hospitalisations and deaths. However, COVID-19 vaccine uptake is challenged by vaccine hesitancy and anti-vaccination sentiments, a global shortage of vaccine supply, and inequitable vaccine distribution especially among low- and middle-income countries including the Philippines. In this paper, we explored vaccination narratives and challenges experienced and observed by Filipinos during the early vaccination period. We interviewed 35 individuals from a subsample of 1,599 survey respondents 18 years and older in the Philippines. The interviews were conducted in Filipino, Cebuano, and/or English via online platforms such as Zoom or via phone call. All interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim, translated, and analysed using inductive content analysis. To highlight the complex reasons for delaying and/or refusing COVID-19 vaccines, we embedded our findings within the social ecological model. Our analysis showed that individual perceptions play a major role in the decision to vaccinate. Such perceptions are shaped by exposure to (mis)information amplified by the media, the community, and the health system. Social networks may either positively or negatively impact vaccination uptake, depending on their views on vaccines. Political issues contribute to vaccine brand hesitancy, resulting in vaccination delays and refusals. Perceptions about the inefficiency and inflexibility of the system also create additional barriers to the vaccine rollout in the country, especially among vulnerable and marginalised groups. Recognising and addressing concerns at all levels are needed to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake and reach. Strengthening health literacy is a critical tool to combat misinformation that undermines vaccine confidence. Vaccination systems must also consider the needs of marginalised and vulnerable groups to ensure their access to vaccines. In all these efforts to improve vaccine uptake, governments will need to engage with communities to ‘co-create’ solutions

Global, Regional, and National Sex Differences in the Global Burden of Tuberculosis by HIV Status, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, Regional, and National Mortality Among Young People Aged 10–24 Years, 1950–2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group

Global, Regional, and National Sex Differences in the Global Burden of Tuberculosis by HIV Status, 1990-2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global Burden of 369 Diseases and Injuries in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990–2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve

Patterns and Determinants of Treatment Completion and Default Among Newly Diagnosed Multibacillary Leprosy Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Poor treatment adherence among leprosy patients contribute to relapse, development of antimicrobial resistance, and the eventual plateauing of the prevalence and incidence of leprosy not just in the Philippines, but also worldwide. For this reason, we aimed to identify the patterns and determinants affecting treatment completion and default among multibacillary leprosy patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving three large hospitals in Metro Manila, Philippines. Patients who started the World Health Organization - Multiple Drug Therapy for multibacillary leprosy between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2013 were included in the study. Selected socio-demographic and clinical data were abstracted from the patient treatment records. Survival analysis and proportional hazards regression were used to analyze the data. Results Records of 1,034 patients with a total follow-up time of 12,287 person-months were included in the analysis. Most patients were male, younger than 45 years old, had an initial bacterial index between 1 and 4, and were residents of Metro Manila. Less than 20% had their treatment duration extended to more than 12 months. Treatment adherence of the patients was poor with less than 60% completing treatment. Most patients complete their treatment within 12 months, but treatment duration may be extended for up to three years. Patients who default from treatment usually do so a few months after initiating it. After adjusting for other variables, hospital, initial bacterial index, and non-extended treatment duration were associated with treatment completion. These factors, in addition to age, were also found to be associated with treatment default. Conclusion This study provides quantitative evidence that there might be marked variations in how doctors in particular hospitals manage their patients, and these findings underscore the need to revisit and re-evaluate clinical practice guidelines to improve treatment outcomes and adherence