18 research outputs found

    Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation under Climate Change in Parsian Basin

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    Climate change caused by global warming has altered temporal-spatial distribution as well as rate and form of precipitation, the magnitude of floods, annual precipitation ​​in rivers, seasonal variation of probable maximum precipitation and flood, water quality, evaporation rate, concentrations of nutrients in aquifers, etc. the Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) is currently the most reliable tool to study the effects of climate change on different systems. This model simulates climate parameters. Estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is an important and practical research method that not only identifies behavior of extreme rainfall in climatology, but also helps hydrologists to design various large water control structures, especially dams. Climate change affects PMP in the coming periods. Consequently, PMP estimates will be modified by hydrologists

    Pattern Recognition of New Urban Technologies from the Perspective of Experts and Officials (Study case: Volunteer Geographic Information Systems (VGIS) Technologies)

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    AbstractThe concept of citizen participation is not new. Today, there is a greater desire to employ modern participatory technologies, with population or community-based strategies, such as participatory volunteered location-based crowdsourcing (VGIS) software to make the cities smarter. Because, in addition to being location-based, the system is voluntary and can simultaneously collect humans’ data. However, there is no precise understanding of how experts are going to execute this method in practice; thus, this study helps to fill this important research gap. The objective of this research is to determine the key factors that have a significant impact on the adoption and utilization of new volunteer crowdsourcing technologies, specifically location-based systems like volunteered geographic information (VGI), as a means of crowdsourcing in urban management, as viewed by both researchers and officials. The research, in terms of its practical goal and nature, is descriptive-analytical. In this study, two qualitative methods, Delphi and the quantitative survey questionnaire, were used sequentially and their results were combined. The results were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis by SPSS software to extract the main components. The research results show that, according to researchers, the most important and effective factors for the successful design and implementation of the voluntary geographic information system technology and its acceptance by citizens are citizens. However, according to municipal officials and experts, the most important factor is organizational and institutional factors, which refer to policy-making and legal support. In fact, municipal officials and experts believe that in order for citizens to accept voluntary location-based technology, the path should be determined by top-level officials first.Keywords: New Technologies, Crowdsourced Technologies, Voluntary Geographic Information System (VGIS), Citizens’ Participation. IntroductionNew urban planning requires greater public participation for achieving scientific and democratic decision-making. Crowdsourcing is a new approach to information gathering, encouraging innovation, and facilitating collective decision-making in urban planning. Nowadays, there is a growing tendency to use participatory new technologies with population or community-based strategies, such as volunteer geographic information systems (VGIS) in city management.The objective of this research is to determine the key factors that have a significant impact on the adoption and utilization of new volunteer crowdsourcing technologies, specifically location-based systems like volunteered geographic information (VGI), as a means of crowdsourcing in urban management, as viewed by both researchers and officials. Materials and MethodsThe research, in terms of its practical goal and nature, is descriptive-analytical. In this study, two qualitative methods, Delphi and the quantitative survey questionnaire, were used sequentially and their results were combined. The results were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis by SPSS software to extract the main components. Next, the factor structure and the factors that influence the adoption of location-based volunteer crowdsourcing technologies by citizens were verified using the Mplus software. The statistical population in this research includes two groups: researchers with research backgrounds in new technologies, especially crowdsourcing and voluntary geographic information systems, and officials involved in the smart city affairs of Isfahan. Using non-probability and purposive sampling, a panel of 40 international experts and 25 officials in Isfahan's smart city affairs were formed for the Delphi panel. Research Findings The research results show that, according to researchers, the most important and effective factors for the successful design and implementation of the voluntary geographic information system technology and its acceptance by citizens are citizens, environmental conditions and background, as well as the design of the technology, respectively. However, officials prioritize institutional and organizational factors, interactive and exchange design, and technical and infrastructural design in order of importance. In fact, from the perspective of researchers, projects that prioritize citizens as the most important variable and the necessary driving force for participation are more likely to succeed. However, according to municipal officials and experts, the most important factor is organizational and institutional factors, which refer to policy-making and legal support. In fact, municipal officials and experts believe that in order for citizens to accept voluntary location-based technology, the path should be determined by top-level officials first. Discussion of Results and ConclusionsThis research contributes a lot to crowdsourced technology adoption literature, and the conceptual framework of this study increases the understanding of VGIS as a new urban technology to improve urban management. The results of the study show that from the point of view of 40 active experts and researchers around the world regarding the acceptance and use of crowdsourced, voluntary, and location-based technologies (VGIS) by citizens, 6 main factors were of high priority (i.e. citizens, design, environmental and contextual conditions, cost, internal, and external quality).Technical and infrastructural factors should also be considered in the design and use of this technology, among which the factor of citizens is the most important factor. According to municipal officials and experts, the most important factor is the organizational and institutional factors that refer to policymaking and legal protections. In fact, municipal officials and experts believe that for voluntary acceptance of location-based technology by citizens, the path must first be determined by high-ranking officials. The second factor is interactive technical and infrastructural design and exchange that refers to the characteristics of the technology. This factor is also present in the group of researchers. Of course, in the group of researchers, this factor ranks sixth. The fourth factor is called mental and normative factors. The fifth factor in the group of officials is called the citizen. This factor is also present in the group of researchers, but it is the first priority and it is the most important factor according to the researchers. The sixth factor is education and culture and the last factor is economic and financial

    Analysis of the drivers explain the resilience of the city in the metropolis of Mashhad

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    Objective: A resilience to the new approach is to assess and improve the capacity and permanence of the foundations of development in cities. Explaining and identifying its effective and promising components can be the basis for many crisis management and non-operating city defense programs that are very necessary in light of the complexities of today's threats. Methods: the present paper is aimed at applying and descriptive-analytical methodology in order to identify and analyze the explanatory predictors of urban resilience in Mashhad's metropolis. The purpose of documentary and Delphi method was used to identify the conceptual features explaining the main proponents of the resilience. The sample population of experts and experts involved in the topic of research in two parts is 15 people to implement a targeted Delphi technique and 50 people to evaluate the contributing drivers. The data analysis is based on the AMOS Structural Equation Modeling. Results: The results show that, firstly, the analysis of conceptual indicators using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the six main explanatory drivers was as economic resilience with coefficient of reliability of 0.78, social resilience with coefficient of reliability of 0.76, Physical aberration with a coefficient of reliability of 0.72; institutional-managerial resilience with 0.73 coefficient of reliability and infrastructure resilience with a coefficient of 0.82 identified; and secondly, analysis of the structure of the communicators of the propulsors identified using a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) showed that the identified propellants have a significant structural relationship to explain the fluctuation in the metropolis of Mashhad. Conclusion: In occurring of accidents, set of factors have main role and between them, human factors role are deterministic, so we must be prioritized training principles in reduction and preventive plans

    Analysis of executive priorities in the realization of the model of neo-urbanism in the prominent neighborhoods of Isfahan city

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    Introduction: Today, urban development following the classical model of urban development has led to unstable conditions in cities and urban neighborhoods. Therefore, in recent years, the neo-urbanism movement has been formed as a new approach to urban design and planning in criticism of contemporary urban development, which has a scattered, non-human and machine-like pattern.Data and Method: The main purpose of this research was to identify implementation priorities in order to realize the model of neo-urbanism in the prominent neighborhoods of Isfahan city (Sanbalistan, Jolfa, Khane Isfahan and Sepahan Shahr). Therefore, the method of this descriptive-analytical research was chosen. At first, a list of primary factors that play a role in urbanism were identified as research variables. In the next step, using the mutual effects analysis method and Micmac software, the degree of influence of primary factors on each other was evaluated in the form of experts' questionnaire. Finally, by using the two-dimensional analysis method and combining the impact scores and average scores, implementation priorities were determined.Results: The findings of the research showed that in Sanbalistan neighborhood, eleven agents, Jolfa neighborhood, eleven agents, Khaneh Isfahan neighborhood, eight agents, and finally, in Sepahan Shahr neighborhood, twelve agents have executive priority to realize the new urbanism model. Among the important factors and indicators of new urbanism in the neighborhoods, we can mention suitable urban furniture at the neighborhood level, a sense of vitality and vitality in the neighborhood, regular welfare programs for the well-being and vitality of the residents, security and safety at night in some remote places, quality Special pedestrian routes are indicated.Conclusion: Today, it is inevitable to rely on new patterns of urban planning in the planning and development of urban neighborhoods. The issue that is necessary for managers and urban planners is that each neighborhood has different characteristics and indicators and factors should be localized in each neighborhood and studied specifically. However, based on the results of the research, five factors include suitable urban furniture at the neighborhood level, a sense of vitality and vitality in the neighborhood, regular welfare programs for the well-being and vitality of the residents, security and safety at night in some remote places, the quality of special routes for pedestrians. Walking is a common priority among all the studied neighborhoods

    Temperature Conditions for Determination of Beekeeping Regions in the Light of Climate Change. Case study: Fars Province

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    The importance of the honey bee lays in its huge role in pollination and, as a result, maintaining the flora of the environment and also increasing agricultural production. Temperature is the most important element of the atmosphere affecting beekeeping. Results of stationary conclusions are generalized to the area of Fars province by using geographical information system (GIS) according to direct relationship between elevation changes and temperature variations. A beekeeping capability map was then drawn for the Fars province by months of the year. The results showed that heat conditions in four months of the year, from December to March, are not suitable in most of the northern and eastern parts of the province. The southern regions with an altitude of less than 1100 meters above sea level are considered as a suitable place for deployment, wintering and beginning of bee colony activities. The most optimal months of the year for honey bee activities are May and October. For fixed beekeeping, the central strip of the province with an average height of 1500 meters above sea level is the most suitable places

    High-Power Multilevel Step-Up DC/DC Converter for Offshore Wind Energy Systems

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    This paper presents a multilevel step-up dc/dc converter for dc-grid-based offshore wind energy conversion applications. The main features of the proposed multilevel converter are as follows: 1) the voltage stress of the power devices can be reduced, making it suitable for high-voltage applications; 2) the boost inductor can be reduced significantly, leading to the outstanding dynamic performance; and 3) high-voltage gain can be obtained and thus is well-suited for high-gain applications. Theoretical analysis was carried out for a four-level step-up converter, based on which, the converter can be extended to any arbitrary number of levels. The proposed four-level converter was verified by a simulation and evaluated by comparing with a conventional multilevel dc/dc converter in terms of the component stress and power device count. The developed topology was implemented on a 2-kW prototype converter to evaluate its feasibility

    Seasonal Analysis of Days of Heavy Rainfall in Talesh-Anzali Basin

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    Heavy Rainfall are one of natural dangers. Heavy rainfalls, directly or indirectly, affect human lives and their activities. In this study Talesh-Anzali wet land basin in the west of Guilan province has been investigated. To determine the probability of heavy rainfall events (seasonal) and the trend existence, non-parametric Men-Kendall test, to determine the probability of rainfall event 30mm Poison’s method and to identify local patterns of precipitation event IDW method have been applied. The data in this study include daily precipitation of 30mm in 20 synoptic stations in a period of 30 year (1987-2016). The results showed the trend is mainly increasing, so that the stations located in the center towards the north of the study district in every four seasons and the stations in Anzali in spring and Masoleh in three seasons of summer, autumn and winter have increasing trend, but in some cases, some stations mainly toward the south half of the area such as kasma in summer, Bashmahalleh and Rasht in winter and Ghalehroudkhan in autumn and winter have extreme decrease trend. Also, in all seasons of the year, in some stations, irregular and accidental changes are observed in the event frequency. This irregularity results from lack of continuity increase or decrease of the event frequency and rainfall or lack of rainfall of 30mm in some stations. Poison’s distribution showed that the probability of lack of event in stations with non-humid climate is so high and addition of lack of event with an event is more than 90% frequency of rainfall event 30mm. Furthermore, in the north and central stations of the region, the most possibility for different events in all seasons of the year has been recorded. In the end, the results showed Poison’s distribution has a proper evaluation of precipitation events in this region
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