Nowcast model for low‐energy electrons in the inner magnetosphere

We present the nowcast model for low‐energy (<200 keV) electrons in the inner magnetosphere, which is the version of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) for electrons. Low‐energy electron fluxes are very important to specify when hazardous satellite surface‐charging phenomena are considered. The presented model provides the low‐energy electron flux at all L shells and at all satellite orbits, when necessary. The model is driven by the real‐time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters with 1 h time shift for propagation to the Earth's magnetopause and by the real time Dst index. Real‐time geostationary GOES 13 or GOES 15 (whenever each is available) data on electron fluxes in three energies, such as 40 keV, 75 keV, and 150 keV, are used for comparison and validation of IMPTAM running online. On average, the model provides quite reasonable agreement with the data; the basic level of the observed fluxes is reproduced. The best agreement between the modeled and the observed fluxes are found for <100 keV electrons. At the same time, not all the peaks and dropouts in the observed electron fluxes are reproduced. For 150 keV electrons, the modeled fluxes are often smaller than the observed ones by an order of magnitude. The normalized root‐mean‐square deviation is found to range from 0.015 to 0.0324. Though these metrics are buoyed by large standard deviations, owing to the dynamic nature of the fluxes, they demonstrate that IMPTAM, on average, predicts the observed fluxes satisfactorily. The computed binary event tables for predicting high flux values within each 1 h window reveal reasonable hit rates being 0.660–0.318 for flux thresholds of 5 ·104–2 ·105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 40 keV electrons, 0.739–0.367 for flux thresholds of 3 ·104–1 ·105 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 75 keV electrons, and 0.485–0.438 for flux thresholds of 3 ·103–3.5 ·103 cm−2 s−1 sr−1 keV−1 for 150 keV electrons but rather small Heidke Skill Scores (0.17 and below). This is the first attempt to model low‐energy electrons in real time at 10 min resolution. The output of this model can serve as an input of electron seed population for real‐time higher‐energy radiation belt modeling.Key PointsNowcast model for low‐energy electronsOnline near‐real‐time comparison to GOES MAGED dataFirst successful model for low‐energy electrons in real timePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110719/1/swe20196.pd

Low‐energy electrons (5–50 keV) in the inner magnetosphere

Transport and acceleration of the 5–50 keV electrons from the plasma sheet to geostationary orbit were investigated. These electrons constitute the low‐energy part of the seed population for the high‐energy MeV particles in the radiation belts and are responsible for surface charging. We modeled one nonstorm event on 24–30 November 2011, when the presence of isolated substorms was seen in the AE index. We used the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) with the boundary at 10 R E with moment values for the electrons in the plasma sheet. The output of the IMPTAM modeling was compared to the observed electron fluxes in 10 energy channels (from 5 to 50 keV) measured on board the AMC 12 geostationary spacecraft by the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II with electrostatic analyzer instrument. The behavior of the fluxes depends on the electron energy. The IMPTAM model, driven by the observed parameters such as Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) B y and B z , solar wind velocity, number density, dynamic pressure, and the Dst index, was not able to reproduce the observed peaks in the electron fluxes when no significant variations are present in those parameters. We launched several substorm‐associated electromagnetic pulses at the substorm onsets during the modeled period. The observed increases in the fluxes can be captured by IMPTAM when substorm‐associated electromagnetic fields are taken into account. Modifications of the pulse front velocity and arrival time are needed to exactly match the observed enhancements. Key Points Electron flux peaks due to substorm activity Solar wind driven inner magnetosphere model does not work for quiet times Substorm‐associated fields to explain electron flux peaksPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106068/1/jgra50735.pd

On the prediction of the auroral westward electrojet index

An ARMAX based model, to forecast the evolution of the of AL index, is developed. The model has been trained and validated using neural networks with the half wave rectifier (VBs) as input. It is shown that the model posses a good, reliable forecasting ability, including periods of intense geomagnetic activity. Prediction efficiency of the model is discussed in the context of 1 min resolution output smoothed over 7 min

Protocol for the \u27Supporting Young Cancer Survivors who Smoke\u27 study (PRISM): Informing the development of a smoking cessation intervention for childhood, adolescent and young adult cancer survivors in England

\ua9 2024 Brown et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Background: Childhood, adolescent and young adult (CAYA) cancer survivors are vulnerable to adverse late-effects. For CAYA cancer survivors, tobacco smoking is the most important preventable cause of ill-health and early death. Yet, effective strategies to support smoking cessation in this group are lacking. The PRISM study aims to undertake multi-method formative research to explore the need for, and if appropriate, inform the future development of an evidence-based and theory-informed tobacco smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors. Materials and methods PRISM involves three phases of: 1) an environmental scan using multiple strategies to identify and examine a) smoking cessation interventions for CAYA cancer survivors that are published in the international literature and b) current smoking cessation services in England that may be available to, or tailorable to, CAYA cancer survivors; 2) a qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with CAYA cancer survivors (aged 16–29 years and who are current or recent ex-smokers and/or current vapers) to explore their views and experiences of smoking, smoking cessation and vaping; and 3) stakeholder workshops with survivors, healthcare professionals and other stakeholders to consider the potential for a smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors and what such an intervention would need to target and change. Findings will be disseminated to patient groups, healthcare professionals and researchers, through conference presentations, journal papers, plain English summaries and social media. Discussion PRISM will explore current delivery of, perceived need for, and barriers and facilitators to, smoking cessation advice and support to CAYA cancer survivors from the perspective of both survivors and healthcare professionals. A key strength of PRISM is the user involvement throughout the study and the additional exploration of survivors’ views on vaping, a behaviour which often co-occurs with smoking. PRISM is the first step in the development of a person-centred, evidence- and theory-based smoking cessation intervention for CAYA cancer survivors who smoke, which if effective, will reduce morbidity and mortality in the CAYA cancer survivor population

Functional development and regeneration of hair cells in the zebrafish lateral line

Hair cells are mechanosensory receptors responsible for transducing auditory and vestibular information into electrical signals, which are then transmitted with remarkable precision to afferent neurons. Different from mammals, the hair cells of lower vertebrates, including those present in the neuromasts of the zebrafish lateral line, regenerate following environmental or chemical insults. Here we investigate the time course of regeneration of hair cells in vivo using electrophysiology, two-photon imaging and immunostaining applied to wild-type and genetically encoded fluorescent indicator zebrafish lines. Functional hair cells drive spontaneous action potentials in the posterior lateral line afferent fibres, the frequency of which progressively increases over the first 10 days post-fertilisation (dpf). Higher firing-rate fibres are only observed from ∼6 dpf. Following copper treatment, newly formed hair cells become functional and are able to drive APs in the afferent fibres within 48 h in both early-larval (≤8 dpf) and late-larval (12–17 dpf) zebrafish. However, the complete functional regeneration of the entire neuromast is delayed in late-larval compared to early-larval zebrafish. We propose that while individual regenerating hair cells can rapidly become active, the acquisition of fully functional neuromasts progresses faster at early-larval stages, a time when hair cells are still under development. At both ages, the afferent terminals in the regenerating neuromast appear to make initial contact with supporting cells. The ablation of the lateral line afferent neurons prevents the timely regeneration of supporting cells and hair cells. These findings indicate that the afferent system is likely to facilitate or promote the neuromast regeneration process

Application of a Hough Search for Continuous Gravitational Waves on Data from the Fifth LIGO Science Run

We report on an all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency range 50-1000 Hertz with the first derivative of frequency in the range 8.9 10(exp 10) Hertz per second to zero in two years of data collected during LIGO's fifth science run. Our results employ a Hough transform technique, introducing a chi(sup 2) test and analysis of coincidences between the signal levels in years 1 and 2 of observations that offers a significant improvement in the product of strain sensitivity with compute cycles per data sample compared to previously published searches. Since our search yields no surviving candidates, we present results taking the form of frequency dependent, 95% confidence upper limits on the strain amplitude h(sub 0). The most stringent upper limit from year 1 is 1.0 10(exp 24) in the 158.00-158.25 Hertz band. In year 2, the most stringent upper limit is 8.9 10(exp 25) in the 146.50-146.75 Hertz band. This improved detection pipeline, which is computationally efficient by at least two orders of magnitude better than our flagship Einstein@Home search, will be important for 'quicklook' searches in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detector era

Search for Gravitational Wave Bursts from Six Magnetars

Soft gamma repeaters (SGRs) and anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) are thought to be magnetars: neutron stars powered by extreme magnetic fields. These rare objects are characterized by repeated and sometimes spectacular gamma-ray bursts. The burst mechanism might involve crustal fractures and excitation of non-radial modes which would emit gravitational waves (GWs). We present the results of a search for GW bursts from six galactic magnetars that is sensitive to neutron star f-modes, thought to be the most efficient GW emitting oscillatory modes in compact stars. One of them, SGR 0501+4516, is likely similar to 1 kpc from Earth, an order of magnitude closer than magnetars targeted in previous GW searches. A second, AXP 1E 1547.0-5408, gave a burst with an estimated isotropic energy >10(44) erg which is comparable to the giant flares. We find no evidence of GWs associated with a sample of 1279 electromagnetic triggers from six magnetars occurring between 2006 November and 2009 June, in GW data from the LIGO, Virgo, and GEO600 detectors. Our lowest model-dependent GW emission energy upper limits for band-and time-limited white noise bursts in the detector sensitive band, and for f-mode ringdowns (at 1090 Hz), are 3.0 x 10(44)d(1)(2) erg and 1.4 x 10(47)d(1)(2) erg, respectively, where d(1) = d(0501)/1 kpc and d(0501) is the distance to SGR 0501+4516. These limits on GW emission from f-modes are an order of magnitude lower than any previous, and approach the range of electromagnetic energies seen in SGR giant flares for the first time.United States National Science FoundationScience and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomMax-Planck-SocietyState of Niedersachsen/GermanyItalian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica NucleareFrench Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueAustralian Research CouncilCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research of IndiaIstituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare of ItalySpanish Ministerio de Educacion y CienciaConselleria d'Economia Hisenda i Innovacio of the Govern de les Illes BalearsFoundation for Fundamental Research on Matter supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific ResearchPolish Ministry of Science and Higher EducationFoundation for Polish ScienceRoyal SocietyScottish Funding CouncilScottish Universities Physics AllianceNational Aeronautics and Space Administration NNH07ZDA001-GLASTCarnegie TrustLeverhulme TrustDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationResearch CorporationAlfred P. Sloan FoundationRussian Space AgencyRFBR 09-02-00166aIPN JPL Y503559 (Odyssey), NASA NNG06GH00G, NASA NNX07AM42G, NASA NNX08AC89G (INTEGRAL), NASA NNG06GI896, NASA NNX07AJ65G, NASA NNX08AN23G (Swift), NASA NNX07AR71G (MESSENGER), NASA NNX06AI36G, NASA NNX08AB84G, NASA NNX08AZ85G (Suzaku), NASA NNX09AU03G (Fermi)Astronom

Implications For The Origin Of GRB 051103 From LIGO Observations

We present the results of a LIGO search for gravitational waves (GWs) associated with GRB 051103, a short-duration hard-spectrum gamma-ray burst (GRB) whose electromagnetically determined sky position is coincident with the spiral galaxy M81, which is 3.6 Mpc from Earth. Possible progenitors for short-hard GRBs include compact object mergers and soft gamma repeater (SGR) giant flares. A merger progenitor would produce a characteristic GW signal that should be detectable at the distance of M81, while GW emission from an SGR is not expected to be detectable at that distance. We found no evidence of a GW signal associated with GRB 051103. Assuming weakly beamed gamma-ray emission with a jet semi-angle of 30 deg we exclude a binary neutron star merger in M81 as the progenitor with a confidence of 98%. Neutron star-black hole mergers are excluded with > 99% confidence. If the event occurred in M81 our findings support the the hypothesis that GRB 051103 was due to an SGR giant flare, making it the most distant extragalactic magnetar observed to date.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures. For a repository of data used in the publication, go to: https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=15166 . Also see the announcement for this paper on ligo.org at: http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-GRB051103/index.ph

Swift follow-up observations of candidate gravitational-wave transient events

We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory. Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a "blind injection challenge". With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected within this decade. In that regime multi-wavelength observations will play a significant role in completing the astrophysical identification of GW sources. We present the methods and results from this first combined analysis and discuss its implications in terms of sensitivity for the present and future instruments.Comment: Submitted for publication 2012 May 25, accepted 2012 October 25, published 2012 November 21, in ApJS, 203, 28 ( http://stacks.iop.org/0067-0049/203/28 ); 14 pages, 3 figures, 6 tables; LIGO-P1100038; Science summary at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S6LVSwift/index.php ; Public access area to figures, tables at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=p110003