World Biofuels Study

This report forms part of a project entitled 'World Biofuels Study'. The objective is to study world biofuel markets and to examine the possible contribution that biofuel imports could make to help meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). The study was sponsored by the Biomass Program of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), U.S. Department of Energy. It is a collaborative effort among the Office of Policy and International Affairs (PI), Department of Energy and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The project consisted of three main components: (1) Assessment of the resource potential for biofuel feedstocks such as sugarcane, grains, soybean, palm oil and lignocellulosic crops and development of supply curves (ORNL). (2) Assessment of the cost and performance of biofuel production technologies (NREL). (3) Scenario-based analysis of world biofuel markets using the ETP global energy model with data developed in the first parts of the study (BNL). This report covers the modeling and analysis part of the project conducted by BNL in cooperation with PI. The Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) energy system model was used as the analytical tool for this study. ETP is a 15 region global model designed using the MARKAL framework. MARKAL-based models are partial equilibrium models that incorporate a description of the physical energy system and provide a bottom-up approach to study the entire energy system. ETP was updated for this study with biomass resource data and biofuel production technology cost and performance data developed by ORNL and NREL under Tasks 1 and 2 of this project. Many countries around the world are embarking on ambitious biofuel policies through renewable fuel standards and economic incentives. As a result, the global biofuel demand is expected to grow very rapidly over the next two decades, provided policymakers stay the course with their policy goals. This project relied on a scenario-based analysis to study global biofuel markets. Scenarios were designed to evaluate the impact of different policy proposals and market conditions. World biofuel supply for selected scenarios is shown in Figure 1. The reference case total biofuel production increases from 12 billion gallons of ethanol equivalent in 2005 to 54 billion gallons in 2020 and 83 billion gallons in 2030. The scenarios analyzed show volumes ranging from 46 to 64 billion gallons in 2020, and from about 72 to about 100 billion gallons in 2030. The highest production worldwide occurs in the scenario with high feedstock availability combined with high oil prices and more rapid improvements in cellulosic biofuel conversion technologies. The lowest global production is found in the scenario with low feedstock availability, low oil prices and slower technology progress

Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems interactions – From key concepts to model implementation with OSeMOSYS

The Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems (CLEWs) approach guides the development of integrated assessments. The approach includes an analytical component that can be performed using simple accounting methods, soft-linking tools, incorporating cross-systems considerations in sectoral models, or using one modelling tool to represent CLEW systems. This paper describes how a CLEWs quantitative analysis can be performed using one single modelling tool, the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Although OSeMOSYS was primarily developed for energy systems analysis, the tool’s functionality and flexibility allow for its application to CLEWs. A step-by-step explanation of how climate, land, energy, and water systems can be represented with OSeMOSYS, complemented with the interpretation of sets, parameters, and variables in the OSeMOSYS code, is provided. A hypothetical case serves as the basis for developing a modelling exercise that exemplifies the building of a CLEWs model in OSeMOSYS. System-centred scenario analysis is performed with the integrated model example to illustrate its application. The analysis of results shows how integrated insights can be derived from the quantitative exercise in the form of conflicts, trade-offs, opportunities, and synergies. In addition to the modelling exercise, using the OSeMOSYS-CLEWs example in teaching, training and open science is explored to support knowledge transfer and advancement in the field

Capacity development and knowledge transfer on the climate, land, water and energy nexus

Applying the concept of the nexus of climate, land, energy and water systems (CLEWs) to sustainable development requires the integration of knowledge from different disciplines to solve complicated multi-systems challenges. Such knowledge and expertise are not solely situated in scientific research’s theoretical realm (i.e. branch of knowledge). For the approach to be successful, integration is also required in a variety of decision spaces. The development of nexus knowledge, which we define as information related to systems’ physical, natural and socioeconomic interactions, broadly emerged from project-oriented research and case study applications, extending the system’s coverage to several resource systems, climate and governance

From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS

In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded

The Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems (CLEWs) framework: a retrospective of activities and advances to 2019

Population growth, urbanization and economic development drive the use of resources. Securing access to essential services such as energy, water, and food, while achieving sustainable development, require that policy and planning processes follow an integrated approach. The 'Climate-, Land-, Energy- and Water-systems' (CLEWs) framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. The approach was first introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an integrated systems analysis of a biofuel chain. The framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. Its multi-institutional application to the case of Mauritius in 2012 initiated the deployment of the framework. A vast number of completed and ongoing applications of CLEWs span different spatial and temporal scales, discussing two or more resource interactions under different political contexts. Also, the studies vary in purpose. This shapes the methods that support CLEWs-type analyses. In this paper, we detail the main steps of the CLEWs framework in perspective to its application over the years. We summarise and compare key applications, both published in the scientific literature, as working papers and reports by international organizations. We discuss differences in terms of geographic scope, purpose, interactions represented, analytical approach and stakeholder involvement. In addition, we review other assessments, which contributed to the advancement of the CLEWs framework. The paper delivers recommendations for the future development of the framework, as well as keys to success in this type of evaluations

Integrated analysis of land-use, energy and water systems for ethanol production from sugarcane in Bolivia

The use of biomass for renewable energy production is one alternative to reduce the environmental impacts of energy production worldwide. Sugarcane-based ethanol is one of the most widespread biofuels in the road transport sector and its development has been encouraged by strong incentives on production and use in several countries. The growing realization on the environmental impacts of ethanol production indicates the need to increase the efficient utilization of biomass resources by optimizing the production chain sustainably. This paper evaluates enhancements in the ethanol production chain quantitatively by identifying opportunities for agricultural intensification and investments in advanced biorefineries in a least-cost optimization model. Results of our model show that significant cost and environmental benefits can be achieved by modernizing sugarcane agriculture in Bolivia. Demands for ethanol and sugar can be met cost-effectively by increasing sugarcane yields from the current country-average of 55.34 ton/ha to 85.7 ton/ha in 2030 with a moderate cropland expansion of 11.4 thousand hectares in the period 2019-2030. Our results further suggest that it is cost-optimal to invest in efficient cogeneration in biorefineries to maximize the renewable energy output and the economic benefits of sugarcane ethanol. Finally, biofuel support in the range of 8-10 US$/GJ is required for investments in second-generation ethanol in biorefineries to be cost-competitive in the medium-term.

Climate Change and Extreme events: Vulnerability of Energy systems in Cuba

The island of Cuba is located in the Caribbean Sea to the south of Florida (United Stated of America). Its geographic characteristic, lengthened and narrow, makes it especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather. Extreme events affect the entire economical sector, include the energy sector. Depending on the event, an energy source can be more affected than another one. The projected energy supply scenarios for Cuba foresee, in spite that the energy sector will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, the introduction of renewable energy sources up to their maximum potential and nuclear energy at the end of the study period. The study took into account two scenarios, a Business as usual or reference and GHG mitigation. It is expected in the GHG mitigation scenario that the structure of the installed capacity for energy production in 2030 will be: 62.3% fossil fuels, 20.1% wind, 7.7% biomass, 6% hydro and 3.7% nuclear. The paper carries out an analysis of the vulnerability of these energy sources to the climate change and extreme events, and how climate change and climatic predictions should be taken into account in the country energy planning. A model is elaborated starting from the existing data, and that permits to figure out the most relevant parameters and their dependence on either the different energy source alternatives or their vulnerability. Pollutant emissions question is addressed too, pointing out the influence of the possible different alternatives

Implications to the electricity system of Paraguay of different demand scenarios and export prices to Brazil

Paraguay's power system is based entirely on hydropower. It serves as the largest net electricity exporter in Latin America. Nonetheless, the country´s electricity consumption per capita is one of the lowest in the world and the transmission and distribution network has one of the highest losses in Latin America. This paper presents an electricity expansion investment outlook (2018–2040) for Paraguay using OSeMOSYS, analyzing three electricity demand scenarios under different electricity export prices to Brazil. The study identifies the least-cost power generation mix, future investments and the financial requirements to meet the needs of different demand scenarios. We find that Paraguay will need to invest in hydropower plants, by mainly expanding the capacity of Yacyreta to cover its electricity needs and sustain national electricity exports levels. In the High demand scenario, where the electricity demand could approximately double by 2040, the country's overall electricity exports decrease by 50% compared to the Reference scenario. Based on the different scenarios examined, the government spends approximately 18.3–31.2 billion USD on power plant investments for the period 2018–2040 to cover future electricity demand. The findings could be useful in supporting decision-making concerning socio-economic development pathways in the country

Climate Change and Extreme events: Vulnerability of Energy systems in Cuba

The island of Cuba is located in the Caribbean Sea to the south of Florida (United Stated of America). Its geographic characteristic, lengthened and narrow, makes it especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather. Extreme events affect the entire economical sector, include the energy sector. Depending on the event, an energy source can be more affected than another one. The projected energy supply scenarios for Cuba foresee, in spite that the energy sector will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, the introduction of renewable energy sources up to their maximum potential and nuclear energy at the end of the study period. The study took into account two scenarios, a Business as usual or reference and GHG mitigation. It is expected in the GHG mitigation scenario that the structure of the installed capacity for energy production in 2030 will be: 62.3% fossil fuels, 20.1% wind, 7.7% biomass, 6% hydro and 3.7% nuclear. The paper carries out an analysis of the vulnerability of these energy sources to the climate change and extreme events, and how climate change and climatic predictions should be taken into account in the country energy planning. A model is elaborated starting from the existing data, and that permits to figure out the most relevant parameters and their dependence on either the different energy source alternatives or their vulnerability. Pollutant emissions question is addressed too, pointing out the influence of the possible different alternative