Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Fossil Resource Prices: Evidence from Persistence Break Testing

This paper considers the question of whether changes in persistence have occurred during the long-run evolution of U.S. prices of the non-renewable energy resources crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. Our main contribution is to allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence, thus disentangling the effect of a deterministic break from that of a stochastic break and advancing the existing literature on the persistence properties of non-renewable resource prices. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of specifying a structural break when testing for breaks in persistence, whereas our findings are robust to the exact date of the structural break. Our analysis yields that coal and natural gas prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution, while oil prices exhibit a break in persistence during the 1970s. The findings suggest that especially the coal market has remained fundamentals-driven, whereas for the oil market exogenous shocks have become dominant. Thus, our results are consequential for the treatment of energy resource prices in both causal analysis and forecasting.non-renewable resource prices, primary energy, persistence, structural breaks

The Dynamics of Global Crude Oil Production

We analyze the dynamic effect of prices and price volatility on current oil production, both on the level of country groups and the major individual producer countries. A comprehensive dataset at monthly frequency allows us to include a rich lag structure while controlling for key global and local determinants as well as seasonality. Our set of explanatory variables also includes real economic activity, investment, the strength of the U.S. dollar and institutional quality. We provide a naïve regression analysis using a broad model to show that lagged explanatory variables are important determinants of current oil production. We find that the reaction of oil production is heterogeneous across both country groups and the major individual producer countries.Crude oil, prices and production, dynamic time series

Why Do Emitters Trade Carbon Permits? Firm-Level Evidence from the European Emission Trading Scheme

À la fin des années cinquante, puis tout au long des années soixante, le théâtre égyptien brillait de tous ses feux et attirait écrivains et artistes. Après les débuts remarquables de Nu'mân 'Achûr avec Al-Maghnatîs (« L'Aimant ») et ceux de l'auteur de ces lignes avec Suqût far'awûn (« La chute de Pharaon »), c'est Mikhaïl Rummân, Sa'd al-Din Wahba et Youssef Idris, sans oublier Salah 'Abd al-Sabûr et 'Abd al-Rahman al-Charqâwî, qui allaient rejoindre le cercle des dramaturges. Une nouvelle ..

The Globalization of Steam Coal Markets and the Role of Logistics: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive multivariate cointegration analysis of three parts of the steam coal value chain - export, transport and import prices. The analysis is based on a rich dataset of international coal prices; in particular, we combine data on steam coal prices with freight rates, covering the period December 2001 until August 2009 at weekly frequency. We then test whether the demand and supply side components of steam coal trade are consistently integrated with one another. In addition, export and import prices as well as freight rates for individual trading routes, across regions and globally are combined. We find evidence of significant yet incomplete integration. We also find heterogeneous short-term dynamics of individual markets. Furthermore, we examine whether logistics enter coal price dynamics through transportation costs, which are mainly determined by oil prices. Our results suggest that this is generally not the case.Steam coal, market integration, multivariate cointegration

Welt-Metallmärkte: steigende Preise bei hoher Marktkonzentration

Die Preise für metallische Rohstoffe streben, trotz jüngster leichter Rückgänge, in der Tendenz neuen Höchstständen entgegen. Eisenerz, der nach Rohöl zweitwichtigste Rohstoff, ist von einer besonders starken Konzentration auf der Anbieter- und der Nachfrageseite geprägt. Relativ neu ist die stark wachsende Nachfrage Chinas. Auf dem Markt für Kupfer gibt es zwar auf den ersten Blick mehr Wettbewerb als bei Eisenerz, jedoch sind auch hier Tendenzen zu oligopolistischen Marktstrukturen zu beobachten.Non-renewable resources, international metal markets, oligopoly

The impact of carbon disclosure mandates on emissions and financial operating performance

We examine whether a disclosure mandate for greenhouse gas emissions creates stakeholder pressure for firms to subsequently reduce their emissions. For UKincorporated listed firms such a mandate was adopted in 2013. Using a difference- indifferences design, we find that firms affected by the mandate reduced their emissions – depending on the specification – by an incremental 14-18% relative to a control group. This reduction was accompanied by an average 9% increase in production costs. At the same time, the treated firms were able to increase their sales by an almost compensating amount. Taken together, our findings provide no indication that the disclosure requirement led to a significant deterioration in the financial operating performance of the treated firms, despite the significant carbon footprint reduction following the disclosure mandate

Entwicklung der Erdölmärkte: Reservekapazität im Nahen Osten wirkt derzeit stabilisierend

Eine wichtige Ursache für den Anstieg des Ölpreises seit Mitte der 90er Jahre ist die stetig steigende Ölnachfrage. Dazu hat in letzter Zeit das starke Wirtschaftswachstum in den Schwellenländern wesentlich beigetragen. Aktuell dürften die Unruhen in Nordafrika den Ölpreis weiter nach oben getrieben haben. Libyen produzierte im Jahr 2010 1,3 Millionen Barrel pro Tag. Die Ausfälle wurden in erster Linie durch Produktionserhöhungen in Saudi-Arabien kompensiert. Mittelfristig könnten Angebotsausfälle aufgrund von weiteren politischen Umwälzungen im Nahen Osten erhebliche Auswirkungen auf den Weltölhandel und die Rohölpreise haben. Aufgrund seiner freien Förderkapazitäten und seines hohen Produktionsanteils prägt Saudi-Arabien nach wie vor das Angebotsverhalten der OPEC. Auch bei der Bewältigung möglicher zusätzlicher Produktsionausfälle kommt dem Land eine entscheidende Rolle zu.Oil price, oil markets, Middle East North Africa (MENA), oligopoly

The impact of carbon disclosure mandates on emissions and financial operating performance

We examine the impact of a disclosure mandate for greenhouse gas emissions on firms' subsequent emission levels and financial operating performance. For UK-incorporated listed firms a carbon disclosure mandate was adopted in 2013. Our difference-indifferences design shows that firms affected by the mandate reduced their emissions by about 8% relative to a control group of European firms. At the same time, our tests indicate that the treated firms experienced no significant changes in their gross margins. Taken together, our findings indicate that the reporting mandate had a real effect on the variable to be disclosed without adversely affecting the financial operating performance of the treated firms

The impact of carbon disclosure mandates on emissions and financial operating performance

We examine whether a disclosure mandate for greenhouse gas emissions creates stakeholder pressure for firms to subsequently reduce their emissions. For UK-incorporated listed firms such a mandate was adopted in 2013. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that firms affected by the mandate reduced their emissions – depending on the specification – by an incremental 14-18% relative to a control group. This reduction was accompanied by an average 9% increase in production costs. At the same time, the treated firms were able to increase their sales by an almost compensating amount. Taken together, our findings provide no indication that the disclosure requirement led to a significant deterioration in the financial operating performance of the treated firms, despite the significant carbon footprint reduction following the disclosure mandate