Energy transition and economic growth: Evidence from countries with barriers to deversification of their electricity mix

In the global context of energy transition, many countries are trying to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The diversification of the electricity mix has been achieved with the development of intermittent renewable generation sources. To improve the understanding of the transition from fossil sources to renewable sources, it is necessary to analyse the constraints and drivers of this transition. With this in mind, this thesis is aimed at empirically analysing the behaviour of the interacting of sources, considering the existence of dominant sources, and the market size, while taking into account the commitment to economic growth. This thesis consists of four essays. The first essay addresses the role of renewable energies in economic growth, considering the context of an innocent barrier to diversification. The dominance of a generation source in the electricity mix, such as the abundance of a natural resource or by strategic option, may obstruct the entry or development of new sources in the electricity mix. Using panel data estimators for an annual frequency, the results show empirical evidence for a negative relationship of renewable energies to economic growth. Countries with a dominant source have a comparative advantage, so they face a trade-off between continuing to produce using the dominant source, promoting economic growth, or introducing alternative sources that may compromise economic activity. An electricity market is an essential tool in the accommodation of renewables, it distributes the excesses, and imports the production deficit, depending on the market size. The market size is related, not only to the geographical extent, but also to the depth, integration of sources, electricity mix diversity of the members, and flows of electricity traded. Therefore, the market size may be a potential barrier to the development of renewables. The second essay analyses the interactions between electricity generation sources and economic activity in the context of a large electricity market. Using autoregressive distributed lag models in time series with monthly frequency for a sample of two countries in the Nord Pool Spot, the results show that endogenous natural resources are supporting economic activity. In the third essay, the interaction of electricity sources with the wholesale market price in a small market context is considered. Using a vector autoregressive model with daily frequency time series, the two members of the Iberian market were analysed. The results show that the two countries, Spain, and Portugal, do not interact with the market in the same way. The scale of electricity generation is very different in the two electrical systems. The establishment of admission criteria to an electricity market, such as the diversity of the mix in relation to existing members, is recommended. Diversification of an electricity mix can be used to reduce energy dependency and promote energy transition. The fourth essay addresses two concepts of energy transition, specifically clean energy transition and low carbon energy transition. Two indicators were computed and proposed to measure both transition approaches. In clean energy transition, renewables were considered as part of the transition, while in low carbon energy transition, both renewable and nuclear sources were considered as part of the energy transition. Some panel data estimators were applied in two sub-samples, non-nuclear and nuclear producers. Energy efficiency and trade openness as a supporter of energy transition are a common feature in both approaches. As such, energy efficiency promotion measures are necessary for the development of renewables.Num contexto global de transição energética, os países começaram a desenvolver esforços para reduzirem as emissões de gases poluentes. A diversificação do mix de eletricidade tem vindo a progredir com a introdução de fontes de geração renovável intermitente. Com o propósito de melhorar a compreensão da transição de fontes fósseis para fontes renováveis é necessário analisar os constrangimentos e os fatores da transição energética. Neste sentido, a presente tese tem como objetivo analisar empiricamente o comportamento da interação entre fontes, considerando a existência de fontes dominantes e a dimensão do mercado, tendo ainda em conta o compromisso com o crescimento económico. Esta tese é constituída por quatro ensaios. O primeiro ensaio aborda o papel das energias renováveis no crescimento económico, considerando o contexto da existência de uma barreira inocente à diversificação. A dominância de uma fonte de geração no mix de eletricidade, quer pela abundância de um recurso natural ou por opção estratégica, pode dificultar a entrada ou o desenvolvimento de novas fontes no mix de eletricidade. Utilizando estimadores de dados em painel para uma frequência anual, os resultados mostram uma evidência empírica para uma relação negativa das energias renováveis para o crescimento económico. Os países com uma fonte dominante possuem uma vantagem comparativa e, portanto, enfrentam um trade-off entre continuar a produzir através da fonte dominante, promovendo o crescimento económico, ou introduzir fontes alternativas, podendo comprometer a atividade económica. O mercado de eletricidade é uma ferramenta importante na acomodação de fontes renováveis, permitindo alocar os excessos e importar o défice de produção, dependendo da dimensão do mercado. Esta está relacionada não só com a extensão geográfica, mas também com a profundidade, integração de fontes, diversidade do mix de eletricidade dos membros e fluxos de eletricidade. Portanto, a dimensão do mercado pode ser uma potencial barreira ao desenvolvimento de renováveis ou um fator determinante. No segundo ensaio são analisadas as interações entre fontes de geração de eletricidade e a atividade económica no contexto de um grande mercado de eletricidade. Utilizando modelos autorregressivos de desfasamento distribuídos em séries temporais, com frequência mensal para uma amostra de dois países no Nord Pool Spot, os resultados mostram que os recursos naturais endógenos estão a promover a atividade económica. No terceiro ensaio é estudada a interação de fontes de eletricidade com o preço do mercado grossista num contexto de pequeno mercado. Os dois membros que constituem o mercado ibérico foram analisados recorrendo a um modelo vetor autorregressivo com séries temporais de frequência diária. Os resultados mostram que os dois países, Espanha e Portugal, não interagem com o mercado da mesma forma. A escala de geração de eletricidade é muito diferente nos dois sistemas elétricos. Recomenda-se o estabelecimento de critérios na admissão a um mercado de eletricidade, como a diversidade do mix em relação aos membros já existentes. A diversificação do mix de eletricidade pode ser utilizada para diminuir a dependência energética e promover a transição energética. No quarto ensaio são abordados dois conceitos de transição energética, concretamente a transição energética limpa e a transição energética de baixo carbono. Dois indicadores foram construídos e propostos para mediar os dois tipos de transição. Na transição energética limpa as renováveis foram consideradas como parte da transição. Enquanto que na transição energética de baixo carbono foram consideradas as fontes renováveis e nuclear como parte da transição. Vários estimadores de dados em painel foram aplicados nas duas subamostras, produtores não nucleares e nucleares. A eficiência energética e a abertura da economia são fatores determinantes na transição das duas abordagens utilizadas. Como tal, são recomendadas medidas de promoção de eficiência energética e a abertura da economia para o desenvolvimento das fontes renováveis

The BMW Group equity valuation

More likely than not, valuation is present in everyone’s daily life. Whether one wants to value a property, an insurance proposal or even a stock, the need for valuation appears. This dissertation focuses on the need for valuing investment opportunities in stocks, namely in the BMW Group. I start with a brief presentation of the available literature in what concerns valuation methods. One may notice that the literature is so extent because no formal decision on what the best valuation method should be has yet been reached. Therefore, the choice between the available methods depend on the characteristics of the company being valued but is also laid on the analysts’ preference. The chosen methods for valuing BMW were the DCF with a WACC approach and Multiples. After reviewing the relevant literature, a brief presentation of the BMW Group was made, and the valuation was carried forward. The DCF valuation provided a price target of €104,18 showing a clear undervaluation as of the 30th of June 2018. As for the Multiples valuation, it proved to be more challenging as the market has been suffering from many uncertainties. Lastly, a comparison between this valuation and two other produced by professional analysts was made. The conclusion of this comparison was that a valuation method is only as good as the assumptions where it lays its roots on. Nevertheless, all three valuations appointed in the same direction: BMW is actually undervalued and an upward movement in its share price is expected.Avaliação representa um importante conceito na vida diária de cada um. Quer se pretenda avaliar um imóvel, uma apólice de seguro ou uma ação, a necessidade de avaliação torna-se evidente. Esta tese foca-se na necessidade de avaliação no que respeita a ações, nomeadamente do Grupo BMW. Primeiro, começo por apresentar de forma breve a literatura disponível relativa a métodos de avaliação. A primeira conclusão é que a literatura é extensa porque não existe nenhuma opinião unânime acerca do melhor método de avaliação a usar. Assim, a escolha entre os diversos métodos prende-se não só com as características da empresa-alvo, mas também com as preferências pessoais de cada analista. Os métodos escolhidos foram o “Discounted Cash Flow” (DCF ou método da atualização dos fluxos de caixa) com recurso ao WACC e os múltiplos. De seguida, foi efetuada uma breve apresentação do Grupo BMW e efetuou-se a avaliação. Através do DCF, encontrou-se um preço alvo por ação de €104,18, o que representa uma clara subvalorização a 30 de junho de 2018. Relativamente aos múltiplos, este método tornou-se mais desafiante, uma vez que o mercado de ações automóvel tem sofrido os impactos de diversas fontes de incerteza. Por último, efetuou-se uma comparação entre o resultado obtido e aquele produzido por duas empresas de avaliação. Verificou-se que a qualidade de um método de avaliação está dependente dos pressupostos assumidos. No entanto, todas as avaliações apontaram na direção de uma subvalorização das ações do Grupo BMW e, portanto, é expectável que estas venham a valorizar-se

Severe aortic regurgitation due to endocarditis in a horse

A 4-year-old Belgian Warmblood mare was presented because of fever, exercise intolerance, a loud diastolic cardiac murmur and a remarkable bounding pulsation that was palpable all over the body. This bounding pulsation appeared simultaneous with the cardiac contractions. Cardiac ultrasound revealed a vegetation on the aortic valve with severe aortic regurgitation and a second vegetation at the sinus of Valsalva. A reverse flow in the common carotid artery was present during diastole. Left heart catheterization showed left ventricular and aortic pressure curves characteristic of a rather acute development of the lesion. The strong bounding pulsation was caused by severe aortic regurgitation that resulted in a very wide pulse pressure with the occurrence of "Watson's water hammer pulse". Due to the grave prognosis, treatment was not attempted. Necropsy confirmed aortic valve endocarditis

LoRaWAN Performance evaluation

The Internet of Things (IoT) is expected to grow in the upcoming years. LoRaWAN is one promising Low Power Wide Area Network (LPWAN) standard proposed for IoT widely adopted across the world. It runs on unlicensed spectrum and was designed to carry sporadic traffic. This dissertation analyses the performance of LoRaWAN in extreme conditions, where peak traffic loads occur in the network. It starts by evaluating the Network Simulator 3 (ns- 3) LoRaWAN module, identifying and correcting their implementation. In a second phase, it evaluates the limitations of the class A LoRaWAN access protocol during synchronized peaks of traffic, and proposes a new access algorithm to improve the reliability and reduce the latency

Euro area time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy

We assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the 19 Euro area countries, notably during recessions, for the period 1995-2020. We use a time-varying measure of fiscal cyclicality to describe fiscal policy developments. The results suggest that during recessions discretionary fiscal policy becomes more pro-cyclical, but the overall budget balance becomes more counter- cyclical. Hence, pursuing a Ricardian fiscal regime by more indebted countries leads to higher counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. Government size reduces counter-cyclicality, as well as trade openness, and financial development has a positive impact on counter-cyclicality.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Exploring the links between total factor productivity, final-to-useful exergy efficiency, and economic growth: Case study Portugal 1960-2014

Mainstream economic growth models downplay the role of energy, while attributing most of growth to an exogenous residual – total factor productivity (TFP). This makes them unsuitable to tackle the challenge of marrying sustainability and economic development targets. Meanwhile, research suggests that measuring energy at the stage where it’s actually productive (useful), and in exergy terms (in thermodynamics, the potential to do work), unlocks new insights concerning energy’s strong link with economic output. In this work we test for relationship linking TFP and final-to-useful (F-to-U) exergy efficiency, resorting to both observational and statistical methods (cointegration). Several models are considered, assessing the impact of: a) disaggregating capital inputs (i.e. buildings, stationary, non-stationary); b) quality-adjusting labour; c) disaggregating F-to-U exergy efficiency (stationary and non-stationary end-uses). Results for Portugal (1960-2014) show that TFP can be proxied by changes in F-to-U exergy efficiency, namely for stationary end-uses. This link is strengthened when disaggregate capital, and schooling-corrected labour measures are considered. When TFP is estimated as a function of F-to-U exergy efficiency, virtually all of long-term economic growth is explained by directly measurable capital, labour, and exergy efficiency in production. Resulting models provide satisfactory explanations of economic growth, founded on energy use and efficiency