Publisher Correction: Non-tuberculous Mycobacteria isolated from Pulmonary samples in sub-Saharan Africa - A Systematic Review and Meta Analyses.

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Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels.

As countries decide on vaccination strategies and how to ease movement restrictions, estimating the proportion of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is important for predicting the future burden of COVID-19. This proportion is usually estimated from serosurvey data in two steps: first the proportion above a threshold antibody level is calculated, then the crude estimate is adjusted using external estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A drawback of this approach is that the PCR-confirmed cases used to estimate the sensitivity of the threshold may not be representative of cases in the wider population-e.g., they may be more recently infected and more severely symptomatic. Mixture modelling offers an alternative approach that does not require external data from PCR-confirmed cases. Here we illustrate the bias in the standard threshold-based approach by comparing both approaches using data from several Kenyan serosurveys. We show that the mixture model analysis produces estimates of previous infection that are often substantially higher than the standard threshold analysis

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1–14 years (−7.7%, 95% PI −20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group

Correlation of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Specific and Non-Specific Quantitative Th1 T-Cell Responses with Bacillary Load in a High Burden Setting

Measures of bacillary load in patients with tuberculosis (TB) may be useful for predicting and monitoring response to treatment. The relationship between quantitative T-cell responses and mycobacterial load remains unclear. We hypothesised that, in a HIV-prevalent high burden setting, the magnitude of mycobacterial antigen-specific and non-specific T-cell IFN-γ responses would correlate with (a) bacterial load and (b) culture conversion in patients undergoing treatment.We compared baseline (n = 147), 2 (n = 35) and 6 month (n = 13) purified-protein-derivative (PPD) and RD1-specific (TSPOT.TB and QFT-GIT) blood RD1-specific (TSPOT.TB; QFT-GIT) responses with associates of sputum bacillary load in patients with culture-confirmed TB in Cape Town, South Africa.IFN-γ responses were not associated with liquid culture time-to-positivity, smear-grade, Xpert MTB/RIF-generated cycle threshold values or the presence of cavities on the chest radiograph in patients with culture-confirmed TB and irrespective of HIV-status. 2-month IGRA conversion rates (positive-to-negative) were negligible [<11% for TSPOT.TB (3/28) and QFT-GIT (1/29)] and lower compared to culture [60% (21/35); p<0.01].In a high burden HIV-prevalent setting T-cell IFN-γ responses to M. tuberculosis-specific and non-specific antigens do not correlate with bacillary load, including Xpert MTB/RIF-generated C(T) values, and are therefore poorly suited for monitoring treatment and prognostication

Novel Biomarkers Distinguishing Active Tuberculosis from Latent Infection Identified by Gene Expression Profile of Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells

BACKGROUND: Humans infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) can delete the pathogen or otherwise become latent infection or active disease. However, the factors influencing the pathogen clearance and disease progression from latent infection are poorly understood. This study attempted to use a genome-wide transcriptome approach to identify immune factors associated with MTB infection and novel biomarkers that can distinguish active disease from latent infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using microarray analysis, we comprehensively determined the transcriptional difference in purified protein derivative (PPD) stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in 12 individuals divided into three groups: TB patients (TB), latent TB infection individuals (LTBI) and healthy controls (HC) (n = 4 per group). A transcriptional profiling of 506 differentially expressed genes could correctly group study individuals into three clusters. Moreover, 55- and 229-transcript signatures for tuberculosis infection (TB&LTBI) and active disease (TB) were identified, respectively. The validation study by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) performed in 83 individuals confirmed the expression patterns of 81% of the microarray identified genes. Decision tree analysis indicated that three genes of CXCL10, ATP10A and TLR6 could differentiate TB from LTBI subjects. Additional validation was performed to assess the diagnostic ability of the three biomarkers within 36 subjects, which yielded a sensitivity of 71% and specificity of 89%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The transcription profiles of PBMCs induced by PPD identified distinctive gene expression patterns associated with different infectious status and provided new insights into human immune responses to MTB. Furthermore, this study indicated that a combination of CXCL10, ATP10A and TLR6 could be used as novel biomarkers for the discrimination of TB from LTBI

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Evidence for perinatal and child health care guidelines in crisis settings: can Cochrane help?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is important that healthcare provided in crisis settings is based on the best available research evidence. We reviewed guidelines for child and perinatal health care in crisis situations to determine whether they were based on research evidence, whether Cochrane systematic reviews were available in the clinical areas addressed by these guidelines and whether summaries of these reviews were provided in Evidence Aid.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Broad internet searches were undertaken to identify relevant guidelines. Guidelines were appraised using AGREE and the clinical areas that were relevant to perinatal or child health were extracted. We searched The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to identify potentially relevant reviews. For each review we determined how many trials were included, and how many were conducted in resource-limited settings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six guidelines met selection criteria. None of the included guidelines were clearly based on research evidence. 198 Cochrane reviews were potentially relevant to the guidelines. These reviews predominantly addressed nutrient supplementation, breastfeeding, malaria, maternal hypertension, premature labour and prevention of HIV transmission. Most reviews included studies from developing settings. However for large portions of the guidelines, particularly health services delivery, there were no relevant reviews. Only 18 (9.1%) reviews have summaries in Evidence Aid.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We did not identify any evidence-based guidelines for perinatal and child health care in disaster settings. We found many Cochrane reviews that could contribute to the evidence-base supporting future guidelines. However there are important issues to be addressed in terms of the relevance of the available reviews and increasing the number of reviews addressing health care delivery.</p

Guidelines for the management of HIV/AIDS in infants and older children in Lagos University Teaching Hospital

No abstract Nigerian Quarterly Journal of Hospital Medicine Vol. 13(1-2): 8-1

Nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria: A two-site, population-based survey

Changes in nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage of vaccine-type (VT) Streptococcus pneumoniae can be used to assess the effectiveness of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We conducted a baseline carriage survey in rural (Kumbotso, Kano) and urban (Pakoto, Ogun) Nigeria. In this cross-sectional study, we obtained data on demography, clinical history, risk factors, and took NP swabs for pneumococcal culture. We calculated crude and age-standardised carriage prevalence and used log-binomial regression to assess risk factors for carriage. Among children aged &lt;5 years, 92% (95% CI: 88-95%) and 78% (73-82%), respectively, carried any pneumococcus and 48% and 50%, respectively, carried PCV10 serotypes. In Kumbotso, carriage prevalence was &gt;40% across all ages. The age-standardized prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 66% in Kumbotso and 40% in Pakoto. The most commonly identified serotypes were 19 F, 6 A and 23 F. Risk factors for carriage were young age, recent rhinorrhoea, cohabitation with ≥2 children aged &lt;5 years, and sharing a bed with ≥2 persons. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence is high in this Nigerian population. Persisting prevalence of VT-carriage in older children and adults suggests that PCV10 introduction in children will not eliminate transmission of vaccine serotypes rapidly. High vaccine coverage will therefore be required to ensure full protection of children