Asymmetry of values, indigenous forces, and incumbent success in counterinsurgency: evidence from Chechnya

This article fills the gap in existing scholarship on asymmetric conflict, indigenous forces, and how socio-cultural codes shape the dynamics and outcomes of conflict transformation. Specifically, it identifies three key socio-cultural values commonplace in honorific societies: retaliation, hospitality, and silence. As sources of effective pro-insurgent violent mobilisation and support from among the local population, these values provide insurgents with an asymmetric advantage over much stronger incumbents. Using the case studies of the two Russian counterinsurgencies in Chechnya, the article shows the mechanisms on the ground through which Moscow’s deployment of indigenous forces against insurgents helped to stem the tide of conflict, reversing the insurgents’ initial advantage in terms of asymmetry of values

Ethnicity and conflict severity: accounting for the effect of co-ethnic and non-ethnic militias on battlefield lethality

How does the presence of armed pro-regime groups affect conflict lethality? This study examines the relationship between ethnicity, militia violence and conflict lethality in civil wars. We emphasise that differences in whether pro-regime militias were recruited in accordance with their ethnicity or not are critical in their influence upon conflict lethality, which we estimate in battlefield deaths. To that end, we categorise militias into groups recruited on their ethnic basis (co-ethnic militias) and those recruited regardless of their ethnicity (non-ethnic militias). We hypothesise that conflicts are more lethal when non-ethnic militias are involved. We link higher number of battle-deaths in conflicts with non-ethnic militias with the militia use of one-sided violence against civilians. Co-ethnic militias – that is militias recruited from the same ethnicity as rebels – are deployed amongst their co-ethnics and therefore tend to target civilians less than non-ethnic militias. This militia–civilian relationship has direct impact on conflict severity. To test our hypotheses we conduct global statistical analysis of 84 intrastate conflicts from 1989 to 2014

Fighting against Jihad? Blood revenge and anti-insurgent mobilization in Jihadist civil wars

Previous studies have shown that many recent Jihadist insurgencies differ from other types of civil wars due to their high levels of civilian victimization and their incidence among tribal and honorific societies. We argue that these characteristics of Jihadist wars may have an effect on anti-rebel mobilization among the local population. Notwithstanding the importance of political and sectarian motives, brutal violence against civilians frequently ignites cycles of blood feuds in societies still abiding by customary traditional laws. We argue that excessive violence against civilians that facilitates blood revenge should not be overlooked as one of the primary causes of anti-rebel mobilization in Jihadist civil wars. We draw our empirical insights by examining how and why local population mobilized against Jihadist insurgents during civil wars in Chechnya. Our findings based on unique interviews with both participants and non-participants of Chechen conflicts in the 1990s and the early 2000s illustrate that both excessive civilian victimization by Jihadist rebels and ensuing cycles of blood revenge functioned as robust anti-insurgent mobilization mechanisms

Ideology and disengagement: a case study of nationalists and Islamists in Chechnya

Disengagement from militant groups has often been related to individual level explanations like battle fatigue or desire to re-join family and friends. We seek to empirically examine which other factors, beyond individual level determinants, influenced disengagement processes among militants belonging to different types of Chechen militant organizations. Drawing empirical insights from unique in-depth interviews with former members of Chechen insurgency, their relatives, eyewitnesses of Chechen wars, and experts with first-hand knowledge of the researched phenomena, this study examines disengagement among jihadist and nationalist Chechen militants. Focusing on group-level factors, such as capacity to resist external pressures, use of violence, in-group social bonds and group cohesion, this article demonstrates that disengagement was a less viable course of action for Chechen jihadists than for nationalist militants

Brutalisation as a Survival Strategy: How the 'Islamic State' Is Prolonging Its Doomsday Battle

The recent bomb attacks at the Istanbul airport (28 June 2016), in a tourist cafe in Dhaka, Bangladesh (2 July), and in Bagdad (3 July) were part of a "Ramadan campaign" announced by the spokesman of the self-declared 'Islamic State' caliphate in late May 2016. This series of attacks was intended to make the Islamic holy month of Ramadan "a month of calamity everywhere for the non-believers." It has generated significant international attention for an organisation which has recently lost the cities of Ramadi and Falluja in Iraq and which is under serious pressure in the strategic city of Manbij in Syria. This article analyses the Islamic State's (IS) contextual use of different forms of violence and argues that the attacks and the defeats are two sides of one coin: the group is losing territory and credibility by failing to continue with its expansion of the universal Islamic caliphate that "Caliph" Abu Bakr promised in summer 2014; it is now compensating for these territorial losses by expanding its field of action through terrorist attacks, thereby suggesting a fictitious expansion. The article explains how the group has exhibited a three-stage "cycle of violence" in which violence has served specific functions. In the first stage, from roughly 2003 to 2010, violence was used as part of a mobilisation strategy. In the second stage, from 2010 to 2015, violence served mainly to facilitate the group's expansion and rule. In the third stage, which began in 2015, the increasingly brutal violence and the fictitious expansion have constituted the centrepiece of a survival strategy. Against this background, the article suggests that the Islamic State will most likely not have a future as a territorial entity but will, at best, survive as a terrorist apocalyptic sect

Chechen diaspora members as foreign fighters in Syria and Ukraine: a diachronic study

Drawing on unique diachronic interviews, this article explores the self-reported willingness of Western Europe-based Chechen diaspora members to travel to Syria and Ukraine as foreign fighters. It posits that diaspora-centred ethno-cultural motives mirroring the Chechen master narratives – struggle for independence, victimization, and quest for revenge – drove Chechen radicalization in both Syria and Ukraine. Self-identifying with Syrians’ and Ukrainians’ plight, the respondents’ sense of victimization triggered their desire for revenge against Russia and its allies, whereas helping foreign anti-Russian war efforts was seen as the first step towards restoring Chechnya’s independence