Immediate and Long-Lasting Impacts of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption on Ocean Oxygen and Carbon Inventories

Large volcanic eruptions drive significant climate perturbations through major anomalies in radiative fluxes and the resulting widespread cooling of the surface and upper ocean. Recent studies suggest that these eruptions also drive important variability in air-sea carbon and oxygen fluxes. By simulating the Earth system using two initial-condition large ensembles, with and without the aerosol forcing associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, we isolate the impact of this volcanic event on physical and biogeochemical properties of the ocean. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption forced significant anomalies in surface fluxes and the ocean interior inventories of heat, oxygen, and carbon. Pinatubo-driven changes persist for multiple years in the upper ocean and permanently modify the ocean's heat, oxygen, and carbon inventories. Positive anomalies in oxygen concentrations emerge immediately post-eruption and penetrate into the deep ocean. In contrast, carbon anomalies intensify in the upper ocean over several years post-eruption, and are largely confined to the upper 150 m. In the tropics and northern high latitudes, the change in oxygen is dominated by surface cooling and subsequent ventilation to mid-depths, while the carbon anomaly is associated with solubility changes and eruption-generated El Niño—Southern Oscillation variability. We do not find significant impact of Pinatubo on oxygen or carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean; but this may be due to Southern Hemisphere aerosol forcing being underestimated in Community Earth System Model 1 simulations

Insights from earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed