What Determined the Uneven Growth of Europe´s Southern Regions? An Empirical Study with Panel Data

Since 1975, the extent of catching-up has been very different across Southern regions. Starting from the common arguments of growth theory, the paper wishes to show whether differences in regional income and growth can be attributed to different endowment in human capital, differences in private or public investment level, to structural imbalances, and labour force participation. The investigated panel consists of regional time series for the period 1975 to 1994 and includes NUTS II level regions of Greece, Spain, and the Italian South. Estimation of the impact of the variables on regional income is effected in a dynamic panel data model applying a GMM estimation procedure. The results indicate that the income level of Southern EU regions is largely determined by employment/educational levels and past public investment, while the impact of private investment is not significant. One may follow that EU regional policies should predominately focus on the human factor. Assistance to member countries to upgrade public infrastructures may be continued, but private investment incentives should be curbed.growth; growth factors; panel data estimation; European Union

What determined the uneven post 1975 development of Europe''s southern regions?

Since 1975, the extent of catching-up has been very different between Southern regions. Starting from the proposals of growth theory, the paper wishes to show whether growth differences can be attributed to different endowment in human capital, differences in private or public investment level, in the speed of structural changes, and labour force participation. The econometric analysis is based on regional time series, compiled for the Spanish, the Greek and the Mezzogiorno's regions. To estimate the impact of the growth variables considered, a set of estimation methods, among them a GMM technique, is used. The results indicate that regional growth was very sensible to both human capital and investment. Therefore, dynamic development of Southern regions required improvement in education, an increase in public capital and a strong investment climate. In stagnating regions, indeed, policy efforts in these areas were rather unstable.

What makes regions in Eastern Europe catching up? The role of foreign investment, human resources and geography

This paper analyses regional growth in Eastern Europe in the second half of the 1990s, when regional disparities sharply increased. We aim to identify the factors behind growth and investigate in particular the role of (foreign) investment, education and innovation as well as geographical factors in a model of economic growth. The key relationships are estimated with spatial econometric tools on empirical data for the period 1995-2000. We find that foreign direct investment was paramount for growth in that period. EU border regions and capital areas clearly outperformed others. Further, regional growth clusters have appeared. Surprisingly, the high level of secondary education played no role to growth. Higher education, in contrast, was important, also for technology transfer. --Regional growth,Eastern Europe,foreign direct investment,education,spatial econometrics

Has Integration Promoted Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU?

This paper examines whether European integration, manifesting itself in increased trade and FDI linkages, new specializations and economic policy coordination, contributed to the synchronization of business cycles in the enlarged EU. We estimate the effects on bilateral growth rate correlations in 1995-2008 in a simultaneous equations model which permits to model endogenous relationships and unveil direct and indirect effects. Trade and FDI prove to have a strong impact on synchronization, specifically between incumbent and new EU members. More coordinated fiscal policies and, particularly in EU 15, the alignment of monetary policies promoted synchronization. Nevertheless, flexible exchange rates remained important adjustment instruments for the new member states. Increasing manufacturing specialization is not counteracting synchronization. The achieved EU income convergence, a declared objective of EU policy, supported business cycle synchronization.Business cycles, transmission channel, FDI, trade, monetary union, EU

Do determinants of FDI to developing countries differ among OECD investors? Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging

The main objective of this paper is to examine the determining factors of outward FDI from four major OECD investors US, Germany, France and the Netherlands to developing countries located in different world regions. Our goal is to elucidate whether the motivation for FDI differs among these investors. Rather than relying on specific theories of FDI determinants we examine them all simultaneously employing Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in a panel data set with 129 FDI destinations in 5 geographical regions over the period 1995-2008. This approach permits us to select the most appropriate model that governs FDI allocation and to distinguish robust FDI determinants. We find that all our investors search for destinations with whom they have established intensive trade relations and that offer a qualified labor force. However, low wages and attractive tax rates are robust investment criteria too, and a considerable share of FDI is still resource-driven. Our investors show fairly similar strategies in the main FDI destinations.FDI determinants, Bayesian Model Averaging, OECD, Developing countries, US, Germany, France, Netherlands

The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has surged in Latin America (LA) since the mid 1990s. European and North American FDI is of capital importance. We investigate the FDI-growth nexus in LA allowing for different source countries, regional hetero- geneity, interaction terms with FDI, and more than 20 growth determinants. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty and to select the best mod- els and most robust parameters. The principal finding is that a positive FDI-growth nexus in LA requires a functioning legal framework and macroeconomic stability. We also find that European FDI is only indirectly correlated with productivity growth, whereas North American FDI is more robust and thus directly correlated with pro- ductivity growth.FDI-growth nexus;model uncertainty;Bayesian Model Averaging;Latin America

Does it Make a Difference? Comparing Growth Effects of European and North American FDI in Latin America

FDI from the European Union (EU) ranks before FDI from North America (NA) in some of the Latin American countries. We investigate the impact of EU- versus NA-FDI on the growth rate including about 50 controls. Country specific effects and parameter heterogeneity are incorporated in our estimation. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty and to select the best models and most robust parameters. Our results indicate that positive effects of FDI are dependent on the functioning of legal frameworks and the quality of infrastructure. EU-FDI is an important, robust growth determinant whereas NA-FDI is not. --Growth determinants,FDI,model uncertainty,Bayesian Model Averaging,Latin America

Migration and Regional Convergence in the European Union

Migration and Regional Convergence in the European Union European migration trends in the last decade have been marked by a number of spectacular changes. In the course of the recent enlargement immigration to some EU15 countries from the CEECs has become remarkable. Nevertheless, the vast majority of the EU27 countries are net immigration countries. In face of the important immigration and the cohesion problem, the question arises whether migration had any effect on unemployment and GDP per capita levels in the 2000s. In this paper we use data from the Eurostat Regio Database and estimate whether EU regions reveal a process of convergence in unemployment and income and whether migration plays a role in this process. We further examine whether migration has a different impact on emigration and immigration regions or in converging and diverging regions. While we cannot find a significant impact of migration on unemployment, migration clearly affects per capita income growth.

Sectoral productivity and spillover effects of FDI in Latin America

Empirical studies analysing productivity effects of inward FDI in Latin America (LA) are inconclusive. We argue that investigating aggregate FDI masks interesting effects of FDI that take place within and across sectors. Moreover, the potential of FDI to generate productivity effects differs across sectors. For these reasons and because sectoral FDI intensities vary significantly among LA countries and change over time, we investigate the productivity effects of FDI in eight different sectors including the primary sector, manufacturing and services. Besides FDI, sector-specific institutional factors, education and a sector‘s export share are considered as control variables. Given the likely endogeneity of variables, a GMM system estimation approach is used. The results indicate that positive productivity effects can be found in all sectors, although they may depend on specific conditions or are limited to a certain time period. Direct productivity effects are highest in the primary sector (agriculture, mining and petroleum production) and in financial services. In contrast, FDI in manufacturing and in transport and telecommunications generates productivity spillovers to nearly all other sectors.FDI, productivity, sector level, Latin America

Regional convergence in the European Union (1985-1999). A spatial dynamic panel analysis

We estimate the speed of income convergence for a sample of 196 European NUTS 2 regions over the period 1985-1999. So far there is no direct estimator available for dynamic panels with strong spatial dependencies. We propose a two-step procedure, which involves first spatial filtering of the variables to remove the spatial correlation, and application of standard GMM estimators for dynamic panels in a second step. Our results show that ignorance of the spatial correlation leads to potentially misleading results. Applying a system GMM estimator on the filtered variables, we obtain a speed of convergence of seven per cent.