Social Carrying Capacity of Mass Tourist Sites: Theoretical and Practical Issues about its Measurement

Congestion is an important management problem at mass tourist sites. This essay focuses on the social carrying capacity (SCC) of a tourist site as indicator of residents’ and visitors’ perception of crowding, intended as the maximum number of visitors (MNV) tolerated. In case of conflict between the residents’ MNV tolerated and the visitors’ MNV tolerated, the policy-maker has to mediate. We consider the case in which the residents’ SCC is lower than the visitors’ SCC, and the site SCC is the result of a compromise between these two aspects of the SCC. This can be measured by making reference to two criteria of choice: the utility maximisation criterion and the voting rule. The use of one method rather than the other depends on the data available about the individual preferences on crowding. Assuming that individual preferences are known, a maximisation model for the computation of the site SCC is conceived. It represents the case in which the residents’ SCC is the limiting factor. The site SCC is intended as the number of visitors which maximises the social welfare function. Because a local policy-maker maximises the welfare of residents, in this model visitors are represented by those residents whose welfare wholly depends on the tourism sector, while the social costs due to crowding are borne by those residents who are partially or totally independent from tourism. Nevertheless, in practice, the individual preferences about crowding are not always known. In this case, the MNV tolerated can be computed by applying the majority voting rule. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the optimum number of visitors, obtained through a maximisation model, is equal to the MNV tolerated by the majority of voters.Sustainable tourism development, Tourism carrying capacity, Social carrying capacity, Maximisation criterion, Majority voting rule, Overcrowding, Mass tourist site

The Economics of Local Tourist Systems

In this paper we analyse the Local Tourist System (LTS) as a particular case of Marshallian Industrial District. The LTS allows the identification of more effective policy tools for managing tourism. First, through the concept of LTS, the policy maker can take into account the complexity of tourism, characterised by a strong heterogeneity of goods, services and subjects involved; second, LTS helps promote a stronger co-ordination between the public and the private sector, by identifying a homogeneous territory and recognising its importance in tourists' decisions; third, through the LTS the policymaker can analyze the externalities and promotes the idea of collaborating networks in a context of local development. In the LTS framework, the anticommon problem can be analysed and contrasted. As the tourist has to buy different but intertwined goods which compose the holiday package, the failure in one of the markets can lead to the overall failure of the package. A LTS policy has to: i) co-ordinate the price policy of the different firms supplying “single components” of the tourist product; ii) fix the price of the whole product; iii) impute a price to each component. We demonstrate that, through price policy co-ordination and under general conditions, the LTS can increase the size of tourism and the firms’ profits, thereby reaching a more effective and efficient target in tourism policy. The recent introduction of LTS in the Italian legislation can be seen as a positive attempt of improving co-ordination in a complex sector such as tourism.Local tourist systems, Tourism policy

Induced Technological Change in a Limited Foresight Optimization Model

The threat of global warming calls for a major transformation of the energy system the coming century. Modeling technological change is an important factor in energy systems modeling. Technological change may be treated as induced by climate policy or as exogenous. We investigate the importance of induced technological change (ITC) in GET-LFL, an iterative optimization model with limited foresight that includes learning-by-doing. Scenarios for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm are studied. We find that the introduction of ITC reduces the total net present value of the abatement cost over this century by 3-9% compared to a case where technological learning is exogenous. Technology specific polices which force the introduction of fuel cell cars and solar PV in combination with ITC reduce the costs further by 4-7% and lead to significantly different technological solutions in different sectors, primarily in the transport sector.Energy system model, Limited foresight, Climate policy, Endougenous learning, Technological lock-in

Risk Management of Daily Tourist Tax Revenues for the Maldives

International tourism is the principal economic activity for Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). There is a strongly predictable component of international tourism, specifically the government revenue received from taxes on international tourists, but it is difficult to predict the number of international tourist arrivals which, in turn, determines the magnitude of tax revenue receipts. A framework is presented for risk management of daily tourist tax revenues for the Maldives, which is a unique SITE because it relies entirely on tourism for its economic and social development. As these receipts from international tourism are significant financial assets to the economies of SITEs, the time-varying volatility of international tourist arrivals and their growth rate is analogous to the volatility (or dynamic risk) in financial returns. In this paper, the volatility in the levels and growth rates of daily international tourist arrivals is investigated.Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs), International tourist arrivals, Tourism tax, Volatility, Risk, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Sustainable Tourism-@-Risk (ST@R)

The Impact of Speed Limits on Recreational Boating in the Lagoon of Venice

Speed limits were introduced in the Lagoon of Venice in 2002 to reduce wave motion, which damages environmentally sensitive areas in the broader Lagoon as well as buildings in the city of Venice. In this paper, we estimate the welfare losses experienced by recreational boaters as a result of the speed limits. We fit a single-site travel cost model to a sample of boaters intercepted as they depart from or arrive to marinas and launching ramps on the Lagoon. Our Poisson model is corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification. We construct three measures of the price per trip, which allow us to check the sensitivity of models and welfare estimates to possible measurement errors in the opportunity cost of time. Our results are robust to the measure of price used and conservatively peg the welfare losses of boaters to €7.7-9.6 million per year. Even under conservative assumptions, the welfare losses of boaters are sufficiently large that, given current monitoring and enforcement of the speed limits, we believe there is a strong incentive for boaters to disregard the limits.Travel cost method, Single-site model, Speed limits, Natural resources management

Transport Energy Security. The Unseen Risk?

The decline in significance given to energy security in recent years can be associated with increasing trust in the self-balancing security of a global-trading economy. After the events of the first years of the 21st century, that framework now looks more problematic, at least for oil supplies. The underlying level of risk that characterised the oil market of the late 20th century has changed, exacerbated by the increasing inelasticity of demand for oil-based products in the transport sector of the world’s economies, which in its turn reflects the strategic dominance of transport within economies. The prudent course for the international community is to reduce the underlying causes of possible geopolitical constraints by making them more manageable through normal channels. One such constraint that is within every nation’s capability (and self-interest) to reduce is the upward drift in the price inelasticity of domestic oil consumption. This could involve increasing the ability to divert oil used within the domestic economy to transport. Yet for many industrial economies, this option has largely been exhausted and a more radical approach of opening up new energy vectors to supply the transport sector may be needed. Taking preventative action after a security event is generally more straightforward than taking precautionary action to ensure that it never happens. The latter course may only be successful through a coincidence with other interests. The current environment agenda is such a coincident interest with transport fuel security.Transport energy security, Risk

An Analysis of the Evolution of Tourism Destinations from the Point of View of the Economic Growth Theory

In this paper we try to build a bridge between the traditional analysis of the evolution of tourism destinations and economic growth theory. With such an aim we develop an environmental growth model for an economy specialized in tourism and we derive the pattern of tourism development with numerical calculations. The results of our simulations do not contradict the general pattern of evolution implied in the Tourism Area Life Cycle Hypothesis, being environmental deterioration and public goods congestion the main reasons for the stagnation of the tourism destination. We also show the importance of the quality of private tourism services in the evolution of the tourism destination.Tourism, Economic growth, Tourism lifcycle

Accounting for Uncertainty Affecting Technical Change in an Economic-Climate Model

The key role of technological change in the decline of energy and carbon intensities of aggregate economic activities is widely recognized. This has focused attention on the issue of developing endogenous models for the evolution of technological change. With a few exceptions this is done using a deterministic framework, even though technological change is a dynamic process which is uncertain by nature. Indeed, the two main vectors through which technological change may be conceptualized, learning through R&D investments and learning-by-doing, both evolve and cumulate in a stochastic manner. How misleading are climate strategies designed without accounting for such uncertainty? The main idea underlying the present piece of research is to assess and discuss the effect of endogenizing this uncertainty on optimal R&D investment trajectories and carbon emission abatement strategies. In order to do so, we use an implicit stochastic programming version of the FEEM-RICE model, first described in Bosetti, Carraro and Galeotti, (2005). The comparative advantage of taking a stochastic programming approach is estimated using as benchmarks the expected-value approach and the worst-case scenario approach. It appears that, accounting for uncertainty and irreversibility would affect both the optimal level of investment in R&D –which should be higher– and emission reductions –which should be contained in the early periods. Indeed, waiting and investing in R&D appears to be the most cost-effective hedging strategy.Stochastic Programming, Uncertainty and Learning, Endogenous Technical Change