Can local particle filters beat the curse of dimensionality?

The discovery of particle filtering methods has enabled the use of nonlinear filtering in a wide array of applications. Unfortunately, the approximation error of particle filters typically grows exponentially in the dimension of the underlying model. This phenomenon has rendered particle filters of limited use in complex data assimilation problems. In this paper, we argue that it is often possible, at least in principle, to develop local particle filtering algorithms whose approximation error is dimension-free. The key to such developments is the decay of correlations property, which is a spatial counterpart of the much better understood stability property of nonlinear filters. For the simplest possible algorithm of this type, our results provide under suitable assumptions an approximation error bound that is uniform both in time and in the model dimension. More broadly, our results provide a framework for the investigation of filtering problems and algorithms in high dimension.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1061 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Locality in Network Optimization

In probability theory and statistics notions of correlation among random variables, decay of correlation, and bias-variance trade-off are fundamental. In this work we introduce analogous notions in optimization, and we show their usefulness in a concrete setting. We propose a general notion of correlation among variables in optimization procedures that is based on the sensitivity of optimal points upon (possibly finite) perturbations. We present a canonical instance in network optimization (the min-cost network flow problem) that exhibits locality, i.e., a setting where the correlation decays as a function of the graph-theoretical distance in the network. In the case of warm-start reoptimization, we develop a general approach to localize a given optimization routine in order to exploit locality. We show that the localization mechanism is responsible for introducing a bias in the original algorithm, and that the bias-variance trade-off that emerges can be exploited to minimize the computational complexity required to reach a prescribed level of error accuracy. We provide numerical evidence to support our claims

Phase Transitions in Nonlinear Filtering

It has been established under very general conditions that the ergodic properties of Markov processes are inherited by their conditional distributions given partial information. While the existing theory provides a rather complete picture of classical filtering models, many infinite-dimensional problems are outside its scope. Far from being a technical issue, the infinite-dimensional setting gives rise to surprising phenomena and new questions in filtering theory. The aim of this paper is to discuss some elementary examples, conjectures, and general theory that arise in this setting, and to highlight connections with problems in statistical mechanics and ergodic theory. In particular, we exhibit a simple example of a uniformly ergodic model in which ergodicity of the filter undergoes a phase transition, and we develop some qualitative understanding as to when such phenomena can and cannot occur. We also discuss closely related problems in the setting of conditional Markov random fields.Comment: 51 page

Comparison Theorems for Gibbs Measures

The Dobrushin comparison theorem is a powerful tool to bound the difference between the marginals of high-dimensional probability distributions in terms of their local specifications. Originally introduced to prove uniqueness and decay of correlations of Gibbs measures, it has been widely used in statistical mechanics as well as in the analysis of algorithms on random fields and interacting Markov chains. However, the classical comparison theorem requires validity of the Dobrushin uniqueness criterion, essentially restricting its applicability in most models to a small subset of the natural parameter space. In this paper we develop generalized Dobrushin comparison theorems in terms of influences between blocks of sites, in the spirit of Dobrushin-Shlosman and Weitz, that substantially extend the range of applicability of the classical comparison theorem. Our proofs are based on the analysis of an associated family of Markov chains. We develop in detail an application of our main results to the analysis of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering in high dimension.Comment: 55 page

Accelerated Consensus via Min-Sum Splitting

We apply the Min-Sum message-passing protocol to solve the consensus problem in distributed optimization. We show that while the ordinary Min-Sum algorithm does not converge, a modified version of it known as Splitting yields convergence to the problem solution. We prove that a proper choice of the tuning parameters allows Min-Sum Splitting to yield subdiffusive accelerated convergence rates, matching the rates obtained by shift-register methods. The acceleration scheme embodied by Min-Sum Splitting for the consensus problem bears similarities with lifted Markov chains techniques and with multi-step first order methods in convex optimization

Optimal Statistical Rates for Decentralised Non-Parametric Regression with Linear Speed-Up

We analyse the learning performance of Distributed Gradient Descent in the context of multi-agent decentralised non-parametric regression with the square loss function when i.i.d. samples are assigned to agents. We show that if agents hold sufficiently many samples with respect to the network size, then Distributed Gradient Descent achieves optimal statistical rates with a number of iterations that scales, up to a threshold, with the inverse of the spectral gap of the gossip matrix divided by the number of samples owned by each agent raised to a problem-dependent power. The presence of the threshold comes from statistics. It encodes the existence of a "big data" regime where the number of required iterations does not depend on the network topology. In this regime, Distributed Gradient Descent achieves optimal statistical rates with the same order of iterations as gradient descent run with all the samples in the network. Provided the communication delay is sufficiently small, the distributed protocol yields a linear speed-up in runtime compared to the single-machine protocol. This is in contrast to decentralised optimisation algorithms that do not exploit statistics and only yield a linear speed-up in graphs where the spectral gap is bounded away from zero. Our results exploit the statistical concentration of quantities held by agents and shed new light on the interplay between statistics and communication in decentralised methods. Bounds are given in the standard non-parametric setting with source/capacity assumptions

Decentralized Cooperative Stochastic Bandits

We study a decentralized cooperative stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with $K$ arms on a network of $N$ agents. In our model, the reward distribution of each arm is the same for each agent and rewards are drawn independently across agents and time steps. In each round, each agent chooses an arm to play and subsequently sends a message to her neighbors. The goal is to minimize the overall regret of the entire network. We design a fully decentralized algorithm that uses an accelerated consensus procedure to compute (delayed) estimates of the average of rewards obtained by all the agents for each arm, and then uses an upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm that accounts for the delay and error of the estimates. We analyze the regret of our algorithm and also provide a lower bound. The regret is bounded by the optimal centralized regret plus a natural and simple term depending on the spectral gap of the communication matrix. Our algorithm is simpler to analyze than those proposed in prior work and it achieves better regret bounds, while requiring less information about the underlying network. It also performs better empirically