Automatic Prediction Of Small Group Performance In Information Sharing Tasks

In this paper, we describe a novel approach, based on Markov jump processes, to model small group conversational dynamics and to predict small group performance. More precisely, we estimate conversational events such as turn taking, backchannels, turn-transitions at the micro-level (1 minute windows) and then we bridge the micro-level behavior and the macro-level performance. We tested our approach with a cooperative task, the Information Sharing task, and we verified the relevance of micro- level interaction dynamics in determining a good group performance (e.g. higher speaking turns rate and more balanced participation among group members).Comment: Presented at Collective Intelligence conference, 2012 (arXiv:1204.2991

Prediction and Prevention of Disproportionally Dominant Agents in Complex Networks

We develop an early warning system and subsequent optimal intervention policy to avoid the formation of disproportional dominance (`winner-takes-all') in growing complex networks. This is modeled as a system of interacting agents, whereby the rate at which an agent establishes connections to others is proportional to its already existing number of connections and its intrinsic fitness. We derive an exact 4-dimensional phase diagram that separates the growing system into two regimes: one where the `fit-get-richer' (FGR) and one where, eventually, the `winner-takes-all' (WTA). By calibrating the system's parameters with maximum likelihood, its distance from the WTA regime can be monitored in real time. This is demonstrated by applying the theory to the eToro social trading platform where users mimic each others trades. If the system state is within or close to the WTA regime, we show how to efficiently control the system back into a more stable state along a geodesic path in the space of fitness distributions. It turns out that the common measure of penalizing the most dominant agents does not solve sustainably the problem of drastic inequity. Instead, interventions that first create a critical mass of high-fitness individuals followed by pushing the relatively low-fitness individuals upward is the best way to avoid swelling inequity and escalating fragility

Society's Nervous System: Building Effective Government, Energy, and Public Health Systems

Drawing on a unique, multi-year collaboration with the heads of major IT, wireless, hardware, health, and financial firms, as well as the heads of American, EU, and other regulatory organizations, and a variety of NGOs [1,2],I describe the potential for pervasive and mobile sensing and computing over the next decade, and the challenges that will have to be faced in order to realize this potential.United States. Army Research Laboratory (Cooperative Agreement Number W911NF-09-2-0053)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Award Number FA9550-10-1-0122