Approaches for multi-step density forecasts with application to aggregated wind power

The generation of multi-step density forecasts for non-Gaussian data mostly relies on Monte Carlo simulations which are computationally intensive. Using aggregated wind power in Ireland, we study two approaches of multi-step density forecasts which can be obtained from simple iterations so that intensive computations are avoided. In the first approach, we apply a logistic transformation to normalize the data approximately and describe the transformed data using ARIMA--GARCH models so that multi-step forecasts can be iterated easily. In the second approach, we describe the forecast densities by truncated normal distributions which are governed by two parameters, namely, the conditional mean and conditional variance. We apply exponential smoothing methods to forecast the two parameters simultaneously. Since the underlying model of exponential smoothing is Gaussian, we are able to obtain multi-step forecasts of the parameters by simple iterations and thus generate forecast densities as truncated normal distributions. We generate forecasts for wind power from 15 minutes to 24 hours ahead. Results show that the first approach generates superior forecasts and slightly outperforms the second approach under various proper scores. Nevertheless, the second approach is computationally more efficient and gives more robust results under different lengths of training data. It also provides an attractive alternative approach since one is allowed to choose a particular parametric density for the forecasts, and is valuable when there are no obvious transformations to normalize the data.Comment: Corrected version includes updated equation (18). Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS320 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Periostin as a biomarker of airway inflammation

No abstract available

Open-source software for generating electrocardiogram signals

ECGSYN, a dynamical model that faithfully reproduces the main features of the human electrocardiogram (ECG), including heart rate variability, RR intervals and QT intervals is presented. Details of the underlying algorithm and an open-source software implementation in Matlab, C and Java are described. An example of how this model will facilitate comparisons of signal processing techniques is provided.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Schooled Bodies? - Adolescents Encountering Complexities in the Pursuit of Embodied Validation

This research is concerned with adolescence as an embodied experience. It represents an attempt to bridge the gap between the sociology o f childhood and the sociology o f the body, a connection that is infrequently made within sociological literature. This investigation is specifically concerned with questioning how adolescents are schooled on the body and if the types o f schooling they receive give rise to complexities in their pursuit o f embodied validation. Throughout this study I explore how adolescents are schooled on the body in many social spheres. From the ever-abounding, ever-astounding body images portrayed in consumer culture; to the hushed comments directed at the bodies o f school peers. From the popularity o f those with the physical prowess to make it onto prestigious school teams; to the physical regulation adopted by mothers and fathers. Each o f the aforementioned contexts, among others school adolescents on the body to some degree. However, this schooling may often be conflicting and contradictory, leaving adolescents to overcome the complexities they encounter. It is a primary contention o f this research that adolescents are not passively schooled on the body to such a degree that they become slaves to contemporary trends. This study shows how youths actively negotiate the forms o f embodiment they encounter and the complexities they experience with certain forms of embodiment. This research provides a vital window into the worlds of participating youths and importantly how they experience these worlds as embodied individuals

Review of "System Modeling in Cellular Biology: From Concepts to Nuts and Bolts" by Szallasi, Stelling and Periwal

"System Modeling in Cellular Biology: From Concepts to Nuts and Bolts" by Szallasi, Stelling and Periwal introduces the relevant concepts, terminology, and techniques of this field of science. It emphasises the modelling and computational challenges of taking a multidisciplinary approach to biology. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to systems biology and will form a valuable resource for students, teachers and researchers from both experimental and theoretical disciplines

Randomised controlled trial of homoeopathy versus placebo in perennial allergic rhinitis with overview of four trial series

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that homoeopathy is a placebo by examining its effect in patients with allergic rhinitis and so contest the evidence from three previous trials in this series. Design: Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled, parallel group, multicentre study. SETTING: Four general practices and a hospital ear, nose, and throat outpatient department. PARTICIPANTS: 51 patients with perennial allergic rhinitis. Intervention: Random assignment to an oral 30c homoeopathic preparation of principal inhalant allergen or to placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes from baseline in nasal inspiratory peak flow and symptom visual analogue scale score over third and fourth weeks after randomisation. RESULTS: Fifty patients completed the study. The homoeopathy group had a significant objective improvement in nasal airflow compared with the placebo group (mean difference 19.8 l/min, 95% confidence interval 10.4 to 29.1, P=0.0001). Both groups reported improvement in symptoms, with patients taking homoeopathy reporting more improvement in all but one of the centres, which had more patients with aggravations. On average no significant difference between the groups was seen on visual analogue scale scores. Initial aggravations of rhinitis symptoms were more common with homoeopathy than placebo (7 (30%) v 2 (7%), P=0.04). Addition of these results to those of three previous trials (n=253) showed a mean symptom reduction on visual analogue scores of 28% (10.9 mm) for homoeopathy compared with 3% (1.1 mm) for placebo (95% confidence interval 4.2 to 15.4, P=0.0007). CONCLUSION: The objective results reinforce earlier evidence that homoeopathic dilutions differ from placebo

An exploration of clinical teaching and learning within a preceptorship model in an acute care hospital in the Republic of Ireland

Preceptorship within clinical nurse teaching was introduced in Ireland in 2002. Little is known how this model has impacted upon the pedagogical practices of the preceptor or student learning in clinical practice. An international literature review highlighted the question of what constitutes effective teaching and learning in clinical practice which is the subject of this thesis. An exploratory qualitative design was used to examine the clinical teaching and learning within the Irish preceptorship model. The sample comprised 13 students and 13 preceptors working together on four clinical areas in one hospital. Data were collected using semi- structured interviews and documentary analysis relating to the teaching and assessment of BNSc (general) students. Main findings showed preceptors used strategies that fostered performance and understanding such as demonstration, coaching and scaffolding. Participants believed the key to effective learning was interactive dialogue and building the students' confidence within the confines of a consistent mutually respectful relationship where the preceptor had time to teach. Many variations in preceptors teaching practices were illuminated. Some preceptors' utilised teaching methods that had the potential to enhance problem solving and students' self-directed learning ability. However, many did not use or value these cognitive approaches. Yet all preceptors expected students to make appropriate judgements within the unpredictable environment of practice. The student role as learner in many preceptor- students' relationships was not well understood or valued. Some cases of good practice were elucidated where professional education was the focus of students learning. Conversely in many cases the findings suggest that the students' education was driven by service needs and values such as performance, team work and a work ethic. Other professional values such as patient empowerment and critical thinking were not a primary concern. A best practice clinical teaching and learning model is offered based on the evidence of this study; recommendations as to its further modification and development are discussed. The research demonstrated how concepts such as cognitive apprenticeship (Coli ins 2006), situated teaching and learning in communities of practice (Lave 2009, Wenger 2009), and scaffolding (Vygotsky 1978) can be helpful in understanding the processes entailed in preceptorship. Therefore the research should provide both pragmatic guidance for nurse education in Ireland and more widely, and the development of our understanding about nurse education. The latter will add to the relatively weak theoretical underpinnings of much of the existing literature in nurse education research