3,955 research outputs found

    MCMCpack: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in R

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    We introduce MCMCpack, an R package that contains functions to perform Bayesian inference using posterior simulation for a number of statistical models. In addition to code that can be used to fit commonly used models, MCMCpack also contains some useful utility functions, including some additional density functions and pseudo-random number generators for statistical distributions, a general purpose Metropolis sampling algorithm, and tools for visualization.

    Why your neighbor matters: Positions in preferential trade agreement networks and export growth in global value chains

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    In rapidly expanding global and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) networks, policy‐makers are keen to situate their countries in a better position, believing that a better position in PTA networks will help their economies trade more and grow faster. In this paper, we provide a theory that explains how changes in countries’ PTA network positions affect their trade performance. We argue that a dense and deep “neighbor network” provides a country with a wide access to global value chains, better protection to investment, and strong credibility to their policy commitments. To measure trade performance, we compute value‐added exports at the country, year, and industry level across 43 countries, 56 industries, and 15 years (2000–14). The estimation of network position effects is done by panel fixed‐effects methods and the sample‐splitting and cross‐fitting double machine‐learning method. The findings show that as a country’s neighbors have deeper and wider PTA networks, the country’s value‐added exports grow faster. Also, the industry‐level analysis shows that sectors heavily engaging in the fragmentation of production stages exhibit faster growth with the improvement of neighbor networks.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163429/2/ecpo12152.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163429/1/ecpo12152_am.pd

    From Text to Sign Language: Exploiting the Spatial and Motioning Dimension

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    PACLIC 19 / Taipei, taiwan / December 1-3, 200

    Location Tracking of Moving Crew Members for Effective Damage Control in an Emergency

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    In an emergency, the commanding officer may have limited information, and crew members may behave differently compared to how they behaved during training. In an emergency situation, if the commanding officer is aware of each crew member's location and role in that situation, he can disseminate orders expeditiously and precisely. To realise a faster and more precise dissemination of orders through better awareness of each crew member's location and role, real-time crew member tracking is needed. The technical feasibility of a real time crew-tracking system based on a wireless sensor network has been studied, with the intent to improve effective commanding in an emergency. Herein, location tracking was achieved using instrumentation consisting of ZigBee tags, routers, and gateways, which were used to record the location and role data of moving crew members on a full-scale ship.Defence Science Journal, 2011, 61(1), pp.57-61, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.61.50