A Bernstein-von Mises theorem in the nonparametric right-censoring model

In the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature, many examples have been reported in which Bayesian estimators and posterior distributions do not achieve the optimal convergence rate, indicating that the Bernstein-von Mises theorem does not hold. In this article, we give a positive result in this direction by showing that the Bernstein-von Mises theorem holds in survival models for a large class of prior processes neutral to the right. We also show that, for an arbitrarily given convergence rate n^{-\alpha} with 0<\alpha \leq 1/2, a prior process neutral to the right can be chosen so that its posterior distribution achieves the convergence rate n^{-\alpha}.Comment: Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00905360400000052

Learning to Represent Haptic Feedback for Partially-Observable Tasks

The sense of touch, being the earliest sensory system to develop in a human body [1], plays a critical part of our daily interaction with the environment. In order to successfully complete a task, many manipulation interactions require incorporating haptic feedback. However, manually designing a feedback mechanism can be extremely challenging. In this work, we consider manipulation tasks that need to incorporate tactile sensor feedback in order to modify a provided nominal plan. To incorporate partial observation, we present a new framework that models the task as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and learns an appropriate representation of haptic feedback which can serve as the state for a POMDP model. The model, that is parametrized by deep recurrent neural networks, utilizes variational Bayes methods to optimize the approximate posterior. Finally, we build on deep Q-learning to be able to select the optimal action in each state without access to a simulator. We test our model on a PR2 robot for multiple tasks of turning a knob until it clicks.Comment: IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 201

Inference for Differential Equation Models using Relaxation via Dynamical Systems

Statistical regression models whose mean functions are represented by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can be used to describe phenomenons dynamical in nature, which are abundant in areas such as biology, climatology and genetics. The estimation of parameters of ODE based models is essential for understanding its dynamics, but the lack of an analytical solution of the ODE makes the parameter estimation challenging. The aim of this paper is to propose a general and fast framework of statistical inference for ODE based models by relaxation of the underlying ODE system. Relaxation is achieved by a properly chosen numerical procedure, such as the Runge-Kutta, and by introducing additive Gaussian noises with small variances. Consequently, filtering methods can be applied to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters in the Bayesian framework. The main advantage of the proposed method is computation speed. In a simulation study, the proposed method was at least 14 times faster than the other methods. Theoretical results which guarantee the convergence of the posterior of the approximated dynamical system to the posterior of true model are presented. Explicit expressions are given that relate the order and the mesh size of the Runge-Kutta procedure to the rate of convergence of the approximated posterior as a function of sample size