Population Trends in Buffalo-Niagara

Like a number of places in the nation’s manufacturing belt, the Buffalo-Niagara metropolitan area has been losing population over the past several decades. This decline reflects the ongoing population shift from the Northeast and Midwest to warmer places in the South and West, as well as the considerable loss of manufacturing jobs in the region. In recent decades, some large metros experiencing domestic out-migration have seen their populations bolstered by migrants from abroad. But while the Buffalo metro’s rate of out-migration has been roughly average, the rates of both domestic and international in-migration have been very low. Like many cities across the U.S., the City of Buffalo has seen a considerable decline in its population since WWII as growth shifted to the suburbs. As a result, the City of Buffalo has represented a shrinking share of its metro’s total population

The Great Recession in Buffalo-Niagara

At the end of the last decade, the U.S. experienced its most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. The so-called “Great Recession” shocked the economies of virtually every metropolitan area in the nation. Officially, the recession began in December of 2007 and ended in June 2009. But for much of the country, recovery has been very slow; over three years since the expansion began the nation had gained back less than half of the jobs it had lost during the downturn. This brief examines the Great Recession’s effect on the Buffalo-Niagara metro’s economy and compares the region’s performance to that of the nation as a whole. The relative performance of the region has been mixed. For the first time in decades, the recession has been milder in the Buffalo-Niagara metropolitan area than in the U.S. overall, starting later and resulting in lower levels of joblessness. This change is tied to the decline of the region’s manufacturing base, which has left the economy more diverse and less volatile than in the past. However, stability has come at a price. More often than not, the service jobs that have been growing in the region pay lower wages than the manufacturing jobs they have replaced, and thus have tended to suppress workers’ wages

Small Business: Big Challenge

In recent years, the contributions of small business to the American economy have become increasingly apparent. Small firms are a significant source of new jobs, and play crucial roles in the development of new technologies and provision of economic opportunities. Small businesses may be especially critical to the regional economies of upstate New York, where a number of large employers have either moved their operations or scaled back their workforces. As a result, it is important to understand the factors that affect small business growth in the region. Recognizing the growing importance of small firms to the upstate New York economy, the Buffalo Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in partnership with the Center for Governmental Research (CGR) surveyed small businesses in western and central New York State. Small business owners know firsthand the challenges of operating a business in the region, and their insight is vital to comprehending what is necessary for future job growth

The demand for local services and infrastructure created by an aging population

Upstate New York, with a growing senior population, is seeing an increase in the number of frail and disabled elderly who rely on local services and infrastructure and are concentrated in the inner cities and older suburbs. While local governments and institutions will face greater pressure to provide services and infrastructure to this expanding segment, the challenge may prove especially difficult for many upstate communities, given their environment of slow economic growth and fiscal stress.