How Trade Credits Foster International Trade

Internationally active firms rely intensively on trade credits even though they are considered particularly expensive. This phenomenon has been little explored so far. Our theoretical analysis shows that trade credits can alleviate financial constraints arising from asymmetric information because they serve as a quality signal and reduce the uncertainty related to international transactions. We use unique survey data on German enterprises to test the effect of the use of trade credits on firms' exporting and importing behavior, both at the extensive and intensive margins. Our results support the assertion that trade credits have a positive impact on firms' exporting and importing activities

Your current job probably won't be your last

Employment

Business cycle measures

Business cycle measures can provide timely statistical evidence of turning points.Business cycles

When do recessions begin and end?

With the funds rate driven to levels far below its target, the FOMC had no recourse but to adjust the target accordingly.Recessions

Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities

Not only are more American families in debt, but the median value of the debt more than doubled between 1989 and 2004. Credit cards and payday loans are two of the favorite tools for digging the hole deeper.Credit

Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries

During the typical recovery from U.S. post-War period economic downturns, employment recovers to its pre-recession level within months of the output trough. However, during the last two recoveries, employment has taken up to two years to achieve its pre-recession benchmark. We propose a formal empirical model of business cycles with recovery periods to demonstrate that the last two recoveries have been statistically different from previous experiences. We find that this difference can be attributed to a shift in the speed of transition between business cycle regimes. Moreover, we find this shift results from both durable and non-durable manufacturing sectors losing their cyclical characteristics. We argue that this finding of acyclicality in post-1980 manufacturing sectors is consistent with previous hypotheses (e.g., improved inventory management) regarding the reduction in macroeconomic volatility over the same period. These results suggest a link between the two phenomena, which have heretofore been studied separately.Business cycles ; Labor market

Hard 'core' inflation

Inflation (Finance)

Can a summer hike cause a surprise fall for mortgage rates?

Federal funds rate ; Mortgages ; Interest rates

Look who's still working now

Labor supply ; Retirement ; Labor market

The effects of recessions across demographic groups

The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this paper examines the different effects of this and previous recessions across a range of demographic categories: sex, marital status, race, age, and education level.Recessions ; Demography