Contribution of oil and natural gas production to renewed increase of atmospheric methane (2007-2014): top-down estimate from ethane and methane column observations

Abstract. Harmonized time series of column-averaged mole fractions of atmospheric methane and ethane over the period 1999–2014 are derived from solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at the Zugspitze summit (47° N, 11° E; 2964 m a.s.l.) and at Lauder (45° S, 170° E; 370 m a.s.l.). Long-term trend analysis reveals a consistent renewed methane increase since 2007 of 6.2 [5.6, 6.9] ppb yr−1 (parts-per-billion per year) at the Zugspitze and 6.0 [5.3, 6.7] ppb yr−1 at Lauder (95 % confidence intervals). Several recent studies provide pieces of evidence that the renewed methane increase is most likely driven by two main factors: (i) increased methane emissions from tropical wetlands, followed by (ii) increased thermogenic methane emissions due to growing oil and natural gas production. Here, we quantify the magnitude of the second class of sources, using long-term measurements of atmospheric ethane as a tracer for thermogenic methane emissions. In 2007, after years of weak decline, the Zugspitze ethane time series shows the sudden onset of a significant positive trend (2.3 [1.8, 2.8]  ×  10−2 ppb yr−1 for 2007–2014), while a negative trend persists at Lauder after 2007 (−0.4 [−0.6, −0.1]  ×  10−2 ppb yr−1). Zugspitze methane and ethane time series are significantly correlated for the period 2007–2014 and can be assigned to thermogenic methane emissions with an ethane-to-methane ratio (EMR) of 12–19 %. We present optimized emission scenarios for 2007–2014 derived from an atmospheric two-box model. From our trend observations we infer a total ethane emission increase over the period 2007–2014 from oil and natural gas sources of 1–11 Tg yr−1 along with an overall methane emission increase of 24–45 Tg yr−1. Based on these results, the oil and natural gas emission contribution (C) to the renewed methane increase is deduced using three different emission scenarios with dedicated EMR ranges. Reference scenario 1 assumes an oil and gas emission combination with EMR  =  7.0–16.2 %, which results in a minimum contribution C  >  39 % (given as lower bound of 95 % confidence interval). Beside this most plausible scenario 1, we consider two less realistic limiting cases of pure oil-related emissions (scenario 2 with EMR  =  16.2–31.4 %) and pure natural gas sources (scenario 3 with EMR  =  4.4–7.0  %), which result in C  >  18 % and C  >  73 %, respectively. Our results suggest that long-term observations of column-averaged ethane provide a valuable constraint on the source attribution of methane emission changes and provide basic knowledge for developing effective climate change mitigation strategies

RXTE observations of the dipping low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1624-49

We analyse ~ 360 ks of archival data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) of the 21 hr orbital period dipping low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1624-49. We find that outside the dips the tracks in the colour-colour and hardness-intensity diagrams (CDs and HIDs) are reminiscent of those of atoll sources in the middle and upper parts of the banana branch. The tracks show secular shifts up to ~ 10%. We study the power spectrum of 4U 1624-49 as a function of the position in the CD. This is the first time power spectra of this source are presented. No quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are found. The power spectra are dominated by very low frequency noise (VLFN), characteristic for atoll sources in the banana state, and band limited noise (BLN) which is not reliably detected but may, uncharacteristically, strengthen and increase in frequency with spectral hardness. The VLFN fits to a power law, which becomes steeper when the source moves to the harder part of the CD. We conclude that 4U 1624-49 is an atoll source which in our observations is in the upper banana branch. Combining this with the high (0.5-0.7 L_Edd) luminosity, the long-term flux stability of the source as seen with the RXTE All-Sky Monitor (ASM), and with the fact that it is an X-ray dip source, we conclude that 4U 1624-49 is most likely a GX atoll source such as GX 3+1 and GX 9+9, but seen edge on.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in A&A. This version: a few typos correcte

Bowen Measure From Heteroclinic Points

We present a new construction of the entropy-maximizing, invariant probability measure on a Smale space (the Bowen measure). Our construction is based on points that are unstably equivalent to one given point, and stably equivalent to another: heteroclinic points. The spirit of the construction is similar to Bowen's construction from periodic points, though the techniques are very different. We also prove results about the growth rate of certain sets of heteroclinic points, and about the stable and unstable components of the Bowen measure. The approach we take is to prove results through direct computation for the case of a Shift of Finite type, and then use resolving factor maps to extend the results to more general Smale spaces

Eliashberg's proof of Cerf's theorem

Following a line of reasoning suggested by Eliashberg, we prove Cerf's theorem that any diffeomorphism of the 3-sphere extends over the 4-ball. To this end we develop a moduli-theoretic version of Eliashberg's filling-with-holomorphic-discs method.Comment: 32 page

Chandra Observation of the Dipping Source XB 1254-690

We present the results of a 53 ks long Chandra observation of the dipping source XB 1254--690. During the observation neither bursts or dips were observed. From the zero-order image we estimated the precise X-ray coordinates of the source with a 90% uncertainty of 0.6\arcsec. Since the lightcurve did not show any significant variability, we extracted the spectrum corresponding to the whole observation. We confirmed the presence of the \ion{Fe}{xxvi} K$_\alpha$ absorption lines with a larger accuracy with respect to the previous XMM EPIC pn observation. Assuming that the line width were due to a bulk motion or a turbulence associated to the coronal activity, we estimate that the lines were produced in a photoionized absorber between the coronal radius and the outer edge of the accretion disk.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figs, accepted by A&A on 6 December 200

Using Mean-Reverting Prices and Real Options to Analyze District Heating and Combined Heat and Power in a Northern Minnesota City

University of Minnesota M.S. July 2014. Major: Applied Economics. Advisor: William Lazarus. 1 computer file (PDF); viii, 132 pages, appendices p. 108-132.This paper examines alternative investment strategies for a biomass-powered District Heating (DH) system for a small city in Northern Minnesota, including Combined Heat & Power (CHP) as a method of producing both heat and electricity. Stochastic, mean-reverting commodity prices and Real Options analysis techniques are also incorporated into a financial examination of the project. The analysis finds that, given certain tax incentives, a DH+CHP project could be attractive for a profit-seeking investor. The analysis also reveals that upfront investment risk could be lowered by using an incremental Real Options approach