Subjective Versus Objective Economic Measures, A fuzzy logic exercise

It is rather evident that there is much more (statistical) information about objective aggregates, such as inflation, output or unemployment than that concerning subjective aggregates, such as well-being, satisfaction, confidence or even expectations. Due to its characteristics, fuzzy logic can and should indeed be used to understand how some of those subjective measures can be approximated by objective ones. This task is accomplished in the paper by the use of Portuguese data on consumer confidence - the subjective economic measure - and on the unemployment rate - the objective economic measure -. The results clearly indicate that to be a worthwhile exercise as the clear importance of unemployment on confidence is only revealed by the fuzzy logic approximation

Understanding the Election Results in Portugal, A spatial econometrics point of view

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about electoral cycles has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric echniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of electoral cycles whether in their political versions or in their partisan versions. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. This being said, the main objective of the paper is to analyse the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the partisan viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of a link between voters’ ideology and the election results obtained by the two main parties in Portugal

Universities and economically depressed regions: how ‘attractive’ is the University of Évora?

As it is well known, universities constitute sources of important multiplier effects on the economic activity of the regions where they are located. Plainly, in the case of economically depressed regions, the importance of universities becomes higher. This is certainly the case with the University of Évora as being located in the Alentejo, one of the poorest regions at the European Union level, it have been contributing to the attraction of economic activity. Besides the direct effect on the economic activity of the Alentejo, the University of Évora also have been exerting demographic effects, on the one hand, by allowing people to become residents on the region and, on the other hand, by attracting students which normally become residents during the period of time required to conclude their academic degrees. The paper explores this last effect by the analysis of how and why the University of Évora is chosen by students coming from all over the country (and from abroad). This analysis, which is done through the use of econometric techniques, also indicates which are the decisive factors for the attraction exerted by the University of Évora, in general, and by its degree courses, in particular, on the candidate students. KEYWORDS: Decision Analysis, Discrete Choice Models, Portugal, Universities JEL CLASSIFICATION: C21, R12, R23

Understanding the transition to work for first degree university graduates in Portugal

A traditional way of looking at the importance of universities assumes that these are sources of positive effects from the viewpoint of the inputs. In accordance to this perspective, the importance of a university can be measured by its regional/national multiplier effects. This perspective can be complemented with the analysis of the issues associated with the transition to work by their graduates. The paper thus analyses the factors that may be important to explain the time to obtain the first job by first degree students, using a sample of students from one university in Portugal. In doing so, we estimate several specifications of discrete-time duration models. The results show that there are significant differences among the students from the several courses and highlight the importance of the final mark in the course. Nevertheless, in particular, we conclude that there are no significant differences between the area of Economics and Management and the area of Engineering and that these study areas are the most successful ones. We also did not find any significant differences between male and female students. Finally, we also conclude that there are significant differences on the probability of leaving unemployment among the several years considered in the sample, which reflects the business cycle.

Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal

The paper deals with the detection and measurement of the level of persistence on aggregate private consumption in Portugal, USA, European Union and EuroZone as well as on some categories of aggregate consumption in Portugal. By the use of a non-parametric methodology applied to monthly data (1992-2007) it is concluded that aggregate consumption in Europe (both European Union and Euro Zone) is more persistent than in the USA and in Portugal. In particular, the relatively lower degree of persistence shown by the consumption in Portugal can be beneficial for the effectiveness of the countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies that are currently being implemented to overcome the current economic crisis. Our results also suggest that consumption of durables is less persistent, also being more volatile. This result is important in the explanation of the severity of the current economic crisis in Portugal.Consumption, Persistence, Portugal

Higher Education ‘Market’ in Portugal: a diagnosis

The higher education system in Portugal, in recent decades, experienced profound structural changes, including a substantial increase in the number of higher education institutions, scattered throughout the country, with a growing number of students and teachers. The subject of this study is to examine the characteristics of current supply and demand within the higher education subsystem, in Portugal. The methodological approach includes two steps: first, making a characterization of key variables that shape demand and supply of higher education in Portugal and, second, using spatial econometric analysis, particularly multidimensional scaling, in order to estimate the location of universities.Higher education, Multidimensional scaling, Spatial location.

Um Exercício de Simulação de Ocupação dos Espaços Rurais e Urbanos

As alterações na paisagem que se podem detectar, mais facilmente sobretudo quando se comparam duas realidades suficientemente distantes no tempo, resultam de um processo contínuo de interacção entre elementos, nomeadamente estados da natureza e pessoas, os quais formam um sistema, regra geral, complexo. Esta complexidade torna-se, do nosso ponto de vista, particularmente interessante quando envolve ou resulta das decisões tomadas pelas pessoas (em função dos seus interesses e/ou características) quanto à sua localização num determinado espaço (com determinadas características). Neste âmbito, uma melhor (ou mais fácil) resposta à questão: Como responder à desertificação e degradação dos espaços rurais e ao congestionamento e alastramento dos espaços urbanos? passa pela (melhor) compreensão prévia dos factores causais do processo dinâmico conducente àquela alteração nas paisagens rural e urbana. Uma das formas de (melhor) compreender este processo dinâmico, regra geral, complexo, consiste no recurso a exercícios de simulação do tipo ‘agent-based’, tal como os modelos de modelização urbana desenvolvidos por Felsen, Watson e Wilenski (veja-se a ‘Urban Modeling Suite’ em http://ccl.northwestern.edu/cities/#urban-suite). O objectivo deste trabalho é assim o de, em termos pedagógicos, ilustrar o uso deste género de modelos de simulação de ocupação dos espaços rurais e urbanos e, em termos científicos, estender/modificar estes modelos de forma a, do nosso ponto de vista, melhor compreender porque se assiste à desertificação dos espaços rurais por contrapartida do congestionamento dos espaços urbanos

How distant are the Portuguese regions? A multidimensional scaling application

Despite being a small country, Portugal is characterised by significant regional disparities which are evident from the analysis of numerous indicators such as the level of income or the unemployment rate. These regional disparities acquire characteristics that, in a sense, do not respect the traditional pattern as the one expected when assuming that standards of living decrease with the distance of each region to the region where economic prosperity is higher. Plainly, this means that, besides the geographical map, it is possible to construct an alternative map of the regions of Portugal which, by its characteristics, is certainly much more interesting from the regional economics point of view. This can be done through the use of multidimensional scaling as it allows representing graphically the regions in a way to reproduce as close as possible the economic distances of the regions as measured by traditional indicators. The analysis of the multidimensional scaling output makes it then possible, on the one hand, to verify how geographical distances are related with economic ones and, on the other hand, to verify if the Portuguese regional economic policies have, indeed, contributed to a diminishment of those regional disparities. KEY-WORDS: Distance, Multidimensional Scaling, Portugal, Regional Disparities JEL CLASSIFICATION: C14, R12, R15