Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates

Seasonality can be defined as a pattern of a time series, which repeats at regular intervals every year. Seasonal fluctuations in data make it difficult to analyse whether changes in data for a given period reflect important increases or decreases in the level of the data, or are due to regularly occurring variation. In search for the economic measures that are independent of seasonal variations, methods had been developed to remove the effect of seasonal changes from the original data to produce seasonally adjusted data. The seasonally adjusted data, providing more readily interpretable measures of changes occurring in a given period, reflects real economic movements without the misleading seasonal changes. The choice of method for seasonal adjustment is crucial for the removal of all seasonal effects in the data. Seasonal adjustment is normally done using the off-the-shelf programs-most commonly worldwide by one of the programs in the X-11 family, X-12 ARIMA, the latest improved version. Another program in common use is the TRAMO/SEATS package developed by the Bank of Spain and promoted by Eurostat. In this study, the performances of two seasonal adjustment methods, X-12 ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS, on the monetary aggregates will be studied. In section five, the two methods are applied to the M2 monetary aggregate series, and the resulting seasonally adjusted series are compared using specific criteria. In sections six and seven, some of the issues that should be concerned in the process of seasonal adjustment, are discussed.Seasonal Adjustment, TRAMO/SEATS, X-12 ARIMA

Indian manufacturing : a slow sector in a rapidly growing economy

This paper investigates the determinants of productivity in Indian manufacturing industries during the period 1988-2000. Using two-digit industry level data for the Indian states, we find evidence of imperfect interindustry and interstate labor mobility as well as misallocation of resources across industries and states. Trade liberalization increases productivity in all industries across all states, and productivity is higher in the less protected industries. These effects of protection and trade liberalization are more pronounced in states that have relatively more flexible labor markets. Similar effects are also found in the case of employment, capital stock and investment. Furthermore, labor market flexibility, independent of other policies, has a positive effect on productivity. Importantly, per capita state development expenditure seems to be the strongest and the most robust predictor of productivity, employment, capital stock and investment. Industrial delicensing increases both labor productivity and employment but only in the states with flexible labor market institutions. Even after controlling for delicensing, the analysis shows that trade liberalization has a productivity-enhancing effect. Finally, trade liberalization benefits most the export-oriented industries located in states with flexible labor-market institutions.Economic Theory&Research,Labor Markets,Markets and Market Access,Free Trade,Economic Growth

Link Prediction via Generalized Coupled Tensor Factorisation

This study deals with the missing link prediction problem: the problem of predicting the existence of missing connections between entities of interest. We address link prediction using coupled analysis of relational datasets represented as heterogeneous data, i.e., datasets in the form of matrices and higher-order tensors. We propose to use an approach based on probabilistic interpretation of tensor factorisation models, i.e., Generalised Coupled Tensor Factorisation, which can simultaneously fit a large class of tensor models to higher-order tensors/matrices with com- mon latent factors using different loss functions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that joint analysis of data from multiple sources via coupled factorisation improves the link prediction performance and the selection of right loss function and tensor model is crucial for accurately predicting missing links

Why it failed? A case study in Turkish organic stock-raising

Few years ago a farmer who usually sells his products in the organic bazaar of İstanbul, Feriköy had to face a business challenge; should he raise organic animals as well? When he shared his ideas with his regular customers they were interested and even excited with the idea. Government was providing financial support for this industry and for the customers, idea was interesting because they would have access to the dairy products which at that time were not easily found in the regular shops. The idea was good but it did not work; for some time customers (although very few) gave support; they provided partial resources for buying the animals, later for food but in the long run having fresh organic milk, cheese and yogurt turned out to be an expensive adventure for them. The farmer, for some time carried the business by his own means and the support provided by the government authorities but gradually he had to give up as well. So this paper by focusing on other failure cases as well tries to provide a deeper understanding for developing organic stock-raising industry in Turkey so that small producers can take part in the market

Globalization, Gender and Development: The Effect of Parental Labor Supply on Child Schooling

Tariff reductions have gender-specific effects on the labor market that change the relative bargaining power within households, which in turn affects child outcomes. We estimate how changes in parental labor supply due to these tariff reductions affect child schooling by focusing on young school-age children who are otherwise not active in the labor market. Using micro-level data from India, we find that an increase in female labor supply due to the tariff reductions was associated with a 7 percentage points higher schooling probability for children between the ages of 7 and 10. This result explains approximately 26 percent of the improvement in schooling for this age group between the years 1988 and 2000household bargaining, development, globalization, schooling

TREND ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DATA USING MANN-KENDALL RANK CORRELATION TEST IN CATALCA - KOCAELI PENINSULA, NORTHWEST OF TURKEY FOR THE PERIOD OF 1970 - 2011

The study area, Catalca-Kocaeli Peninsula was located on Marmara Region,northwestern of Turkey. Due to the industrialization, transportation and job opportunities excess and adequacy of education and health services, the majority ofthe population of the Marmara Region is located in the Catalca-Kocaeli peninsula.But in recent years, population growth and urbanization have warming effect onclimate in the research area.The main objective of this study is to examine the trend analysis of annual mean temperature from 1970 to 2011. Trend becomes the most commonly used technique to detect temperature variability in regional and local basis. In this study Mann-Kendall Rank Correlation Test was applied to annual mean temperature data fromstations located in Catalca-Kocaeli Peninsula to determine the existence and significance of trends, and the years in which changes in the trends started. In order to discuss the trends of annual mean temperature, the annual Mann-Kendallstatistics of temperature are illustrated in graphics with MATLAB software