Mudflat Morphodynamics and the Impact of Sea Level Rise in South San Francisco Bay

Estuarine tidal mudflats form unique habitats and maintain valuable ecosystems. Historic measurements of a mudflat in San Fancsico Bay over the past 150 years suggest the development of a rather stable mudflat profile. This raises questions on its origin and governing processes as well as on the mudflats’ faith under scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply. We developed a 1D morphodynamic profile model (Delft3D) that is able to reproduce the 2011 measured mudflat profile. The main, schematised, forcings of the model are a constant tidal cycle and constant wave action. The model shows that wave action suspends sediment that is transported landward during flood. A depositional front moves landward until landward bed levels are high enough to carry an equal amount of sediment back during ebb. This implies that, similar to observations, the critical shear stress for erosion is regularly exceeded during the tidal cycle and that modelled equilibrium conditions include high suspended sediment concentrations at the mudflat. Shear stresses are highest during low water, while shear stresses are lower than critical (and highest at the landward end) along the mudflat during high water. Scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply drown the mudflat. In addition, the mudflat becomes more prone to channel incision because landward accumulation is hampered. This research suggests that sea level rise is a serious threat to the presence of many estuarine intertidal mudflats, adjacent salt marshes and their associated ecological values.Coastal Engineerin

Morphodynamic modeling the impact of large-scale embankment on the large bar in a convergent estuary

Many alluvial estuaries worldwide include an inside bar system, a large sediment deposit deeply stretched into the estuary. A good example of such a system is the large sediment deposit in the Qiantang Estuary, China. Its length and height reach 130 km and 10 m, respectively. Bathymetrical comparison reveals that the large bar has moved seaward by around 15 km over the last decades, probably related to the large-scale coastal embankment project. This motivated a quantitative investigation of the impact of estuarine planform on the inside bar development. The bar morphology is reproduced by means of an idealized 1-D morphodynamic model. Model results suggest that the bar movement is related to a decreasing tidal prism, increasing flood dominance in the lower reach and enhanced ebb currents in the upper reach, in response to the embankment. The timescale of the morphological response is only several years. The rapid response is related to the strong tidal currents and large sediment fluxes within the estuary. Sensitivity experiments show that the location and dimensions of the bar are related to the convergence length of the estuary. A decrease of the convergence length causes seaward movement and shortening and lowering of the bar. The bar dimensions also depend on the ratio between river and tidal discharges. When the ratio increases, the bar apex moves seaward and the elevation decreases. The bar movement has significantly influenced the tidal bore in the Qiantang Estuary.Accepted Author ManuscriptCoastal Engineerin

Land Reclamation Controls on Estuarine Morphological Evolution

The morphological configuration of estuaries and tidal basins influences future development because the channel-flat pattern and geometry control tidal dynamics and, as a result, residual sediment transport patterns. Large-scale human alteration of estuarine plan-form and channel dimensions, as a result of land reclamation, influences long-term evolution, because the existing balance of sediment import versus export is disrupted. The morphodynamic response to land reclamation is, however, slow, impacting the system for decades to centuries. Consequently, there are usually multiple human interventions cumulatively impacting the system. Our understanding of the cumulative effects of land reclamation and other anthropogenic interference is limited because observations usually do not span the complete morphological adaptation time. The Ems estuary (bordering The Netherlands and Germany) provides an unique site to study the effects of the cumulative impact of land reclamations and 20th-century human interference. Extensive storm surge-formed basins have been gradually reclaimed over a period of 500 years in this well-documented estuary, and dredging works dominated in the past century. Our objective is to quantify the effects of land reclamations and channel dredging on the historic evolution of the Ems estuary from century-scale observations combined with numerical morphodynamic modelling.We compiled a digitized bathymetric dataset, spanning nearly the full reclamation period, from historical maps, nautical charts, and recent sounding observations. The dataset was used to reconstruct the morphological evolution of the estuary over the past 500 years. The centennial-scale morphodynamic trends show that the system responded to land reclamation by subtidal infilling and evolved from a multichannel system separated by shoals to a single channel system flanked by fringing flats. The long-term geometric changes show that the main system-scale morphodynamic adaptation is controlled by the effects of land reclamation. The present-day evolution is additionally influenced by the effects of 20th-century dredging works.A process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D-FM), forced with a synthetic spring-neap tidal cycle, was used to investigate the Ems estuary channel evolution in response to historical land reclamations. Simulation results showcase the transformation from an initially flat-bed bathymetry to a system with multiple channels and tidal flats when historic storm surge basins provide extensive intertidal areas. Simulations in which these former storm surge basins are reclaimed result in a single-channel system, confirming the influence of land reclamations on the observed evolution. The results of this study emphasize that, contrary to what is generally assumed, pre-dredging estuarine morphologies are often far from pristine. Ongoing research focuses on quantifying the interplay between natural and human-driven factors in century-scale channel evolution.Environmental Fluid Mechanic

Connecting subtidal and subaerial sand transport pathways in the Texel inlet system

Potential transport pathways between the subtidal and subaerial part of tidal inlet systems are explored by means of a case study of Texel Inlet, The Netherlands. Based on a morphologic analysis of multi-annual, high-resolution bathymetric and topographic data sets we hypothesize that two mechanisms connect the subtidal and subaerial parts of the system. The first mechanism relates to deposition on the tip of the island occurring to a large extent below spring high tide level, providing a fresh sediment source available for aeolian transport during parts of the tidal cycle. The second mechanism relates to sand deposition on the wide sandflat above spring high tide level occurring during storm surge flooding. These deposits are then available for aeolian transport during regular water levels. Due to the dominant wind direction at Texel Island, this leads to extensive dune formation on the downwind end of the sandflat.Policy AnalysisCoastal Engineerin

Wave attenuation potential, sediment properties and mangrove growth dynamics data over Guyana's intertidal mudflats: assessing the potential of mangrove restoration works

Coastal mangroves, thriving at the interface between land and sea, provide robust flood risk reduction. Projected increases in the frequency and magnitude of climate impact drivers such as sea level rise and wind and wave climatology reinforce the need to optimize the design and functionality of coastal protection works to increase resilience. Doing so effectively requires a sound understanding of the local coastal system. However, data availability particularly at muddy coasts remains a pronounced problem. As such, this paper captures a unique dataset for the Guyana coastline and focuses on relations between vegetation (mangrove) density, wave attenuation rates and sediment characteristics. These processes were studied along a cross-shore transect with mangroves fringing the coastline of Guyana. The data are publicly available at the 4TU Centre for Research Data (4TU.ResearchData) via https://doi.org/10.4121/c.5715269 (Best et al., 2022) where the collection Advancing Resilience Measures for Vegetated Coastline (ARM4VEG), Guyana, comprises of six key datasets.Suspended sediment concentrations typically exceeded 1 g L−1 with a maximum of 60 g L−1, implying that we measured merely fluid-mud conditions across a 1 m depth. Time series of wind waves and fluid-mud density variations, recorded simultaneously with tide elevation and suspended sediment data, indicate that wave–fluid-mud interactions in the nearshore may be largely responsible for the accumulation of fine, muddy sediment along the coast. Sediment properties reveal a consolidated underlying bed layer. Vegetation coverage densities in the Avicennia-dominated forest were determined across the vertical with maximum values over the first 20 cm from the bed due to the roots and pneumatophores.Generalized total wave attenuation rates in the forest and along the mudflat were between 0.002–0.0032 m−1 and 0.0003–0.0004 m−1 respectively. Both the mangroves and the mudflats have a high wave-damping capacity. The wave attenuation in the mangroves is presumably dominated by energy losses due to vegetation drag, since wave attenuation due to bottom friction and viscous dissipation on the bare mudflats is significantly lower than wave dissipation inside the mangrove vegetation. Data collected corroborate the coastal defence function of mangroves by quantifying their contribution to wave attenuation and sediment trapping. The explicit linking of these properties to vegetation structure facilitates modelling studies investigating the mechanisms determining the coastal defence capacities of mangroves.Coastal EngineeringEnvironmental Fluid Mechanic

Eleven years of mangrove–mudflat dynamics on the mud volcano-induced prograding delta in east java, indonesia: Integrating uav and satellite imagery

This article presents a novel approach to explore mangrove dynamics on a prograding delta by integrating unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and satellite imagery. The Porong Delta in Indonesia has a unique geographical setting with rapid delta development and expansion of the mangrove belt. This is due to an unprecedented mud load from the LUSI mud volcanic eruption. The mangrove dynamics analysis combines UAV-based Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry and 11 years (2009–2019) satellite imagery cloud computing analysis by Google Earth Engine (GEE). Our analysis shows unique, high-spatiotemporal-resolution mangrove extent maps. The SfM pho-togrammetry analysis leads to a 3D representation of the mangrove canopy and an estimate of mangrove biophysical properties with accurate height and individual position of the mangroves stand. GEE derived vegetation indices resulted in high (three-monthly) resolution mangrove coverage dynamics over 11 years (2009–2019), yielding a value of more than 98% for the overall, producer and consumer accuracy. Combining the satellite-derived age maps and the UAV-derived spatial tree structure allowed us to monitor the mangrove dynamics on a rapidly prograding delta along with its structural attributes. This analysis is of essential value to ecologists, coastal managers, and poli-cymakers.Coastal Engineerin

Morphodynamic adaptation of a tidal basin to centennial sea-level rise: The importance of lateral expansion

Global climate changes have accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), which exacerbates the risks of coastal flooding and erosion. It is of practical interest to understand the long-term hydro-morphodynamic adaptation of coastal systems to SLR at a century time scale. In this work we use a numerical model to explore morphodynamic evolution of a schematized tidal basin in response to SLR of 0.25–2.0 m over 100 years with special emphasis on the impact of lateral basin expansion. Starting from a sloped initial bed, morphodynamic development of the system leads to the formation of alternating bars and meandering channels inside the tidal basin and an ebb-tidal delta extending seaward from the basin. Imposing rising sea level causes progressive inundation of the low-lying floodplains, found along the basin margins, inducing an increase in basin plain area and tidal prism, as well as intertidal area and storage volume. Although the overall channel-shoal structure persists under SLR, lateral shoreline expansion alters the basin hypsometry, leading to enhanced sediment export. The newly-submerged floodplains partly erode, supplying sediment to the system for spatial redistribution, hence buffering the impact of SLR. The vertical accretion rate of the tidal flats inside the tidal basin lags behind the rate of SLR. However, lateral shoreline migration under SLR creates new intertidal flats, compensating intertidal flat loss in the original basin. In contrast, a constrained tidal basin without low-lying floodplains is subject to profound drowning and tidal flat losses under SLR. Overall, the model results suggest that an unconstrained tidal system allowing lateral shoreline migration has buffering capacity for alleviating the drowning impact of SLR by evolving new intertidal areas, sediment redistribution and morphodynamic adjustment. These findings suggest that preserving tidal flats located along the margins of tidal basins (instead of reclaiming them) sustains the system's resilience to SLR.Accepted Author ManuscriptCoastal Engineerin

An efficient consolidation model for morphodynamic simulations in low SPM-environments

This paper presents a fast consolidation model suitable for long-term morphodynamic simulations. This model is applicable for muddy systems where sedimentation rates are smaller than consolidation rates, assuming quasi-equilibrium of the consolidating bed. It compares to the consolidation model developed by Sanford (2008). However, in that model, a heuristic, exponential density profile was used. Instead, the current model is derived from the full consolidation (Gibson) equation. The model’s material parameters (hydraulic conductivity, consolidation coefficient and strength) can therefore be derived from soil mechanical experiments in the laboratory.Environmental Fluid Mechanic

Reclamation of Tidal Flats Within Tidal Basins Alters Centennial Morphodynamic Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise

Reclamation of low-lying tidal flats and floodplains adjacent to present shorelines has been implemented worldwide for both coastal defense and development. While it is technically feasible to monitor the short-term impact of tidal flat embankments, it is challenging to identify long-term and cumulative morphodynamic impact, particularly considering centennial sea-level rise (SLR). In this study, we construct a process-based hydro-morphodynamic model for a schematized tidal basin and examine its morphodynamic evolution under the combined influence of SLR and tidal flat embankments. We see that rising sea levels lead to inundation of low-lying floodplains just above high water, creating new intertidal flats that mitigate the drowning impact of SLR. This mitigation effect is lost if the low-lying floodplains and tidal flats are reclaimed, preventing any shoreline migration under SLR. Removing a large portion of intertidal flats within the tidal basin induces significant changes in basin hypsometry and potentially, a reversal of flood/ebb dominance. The resulting hydro-morphodynamic impact of large-scale tidal flat embankment is more significant than SLR at a centennial time scale. This suggests a need for much greater management awareness regarding the cumulative impact of human activities. These findings imply that allowing lateral shoreline migration under SLR sustains tidal basin's inherent morphodynamic buffering capacity, whereas reclaiming tidal flats significantly alters hydro-morphodynamic adaptation at the decadal to centennial time scales. It highlights the importance of conserving low-lying floodplains and tidal flats in tide-dominated systems to counteract the drowning impact of SLR.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Coastal Engineerin