Early detection of risk for maltreatment within Dutch preventive child health care: A proxy-based evaluation of the long-term predictive validity of the SPARK method

Background: For effective prevention of child maltreatment, it is crucial that risk factors for child maltreatment are identified as early as possible. In the Dutch preventive child healthcare, the SPARK-method is used for this purpose.Objective: The current study investigated the predictive validity of the SPARK-method for predicting child protection activities, as a proxy for child maltreatment, and whether the estimation can be improved with an actuarial module.Participants and setting: Participants included a community sample of 1582 children of approximately 18-months-old for whom the SPARK was administered during well-child visits at home (51 %) or at the well-baby clinic (49 %).Methods: SPARK measurements were linked to data on child protection orders and residential youth care over a 10-year follow-up period. The predictive validity was evaluated using Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) values.Results: Results showed good predictive validity for the SPARK clinical risk assessment (AUC = 0.723; large effect). The actuarial module led to a significant improvement in predictive validity (AUC = 0.802; large effect), z = 2.05, p = .04.Conclusion: These results show that the SPARK is suitable for estimating the risk of child protection activities and that the actuarial module is a valuable addition. The SPARK can be used to support professionals in preventive child healthcare with their decision on appropriate follow-up actions

The development and validation of an actuarial risk assessment tool for the prediction of first-time offending

For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police