An uncertain future for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou): The impact of climate change on winter distribution in Ontario

Habitat alteration and climate change are two important environmental stressors posing increasing threats to woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou, in Ontario. Our first objective was to identify the importance of linear features, habitat, and climate on the occurrence of woodland caribou during the winter season using over 30 years of records (1980-2012). Our second objective was to forecast the impacts of climate change on the future occurrence and range of woodland caribou. Woodland caribou occurrence and environmental data collected during 1980 to 2012 were obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Logistic regression models were used to identify the importance of linear features, habitat, and climate on woodland caribou. We then forecast future caribou occurrences using 126 future climate projections. Woodland caribou preferred coniferous forests and mixed forests that tended to be associated with increased lichen coverage, and regions with colder winters. Woodland caribou also avoided anthropogenically disturbed regions, such as areas associated with high road density or developed areas. Caribou range extent was projected to contract by 57.2-100% by 2050 and 58.9-100% by 2070. Furthermore, all 126 climate change scenarios forecast a range loss of at least 55% for woodland caribou in Ontario by 2050. We project complete loss of woodland caribou in Ontario if winter temperatures increase by more than 5.6°C by 2070. We found that woodland caribou in Ontario are sensitive to changes in climate and forecasted that an average of 95% of Ontario’s native wood­land caribou could become extirpated by 2070. The greatest extirpations were projected to occur in the northernmost regions of Ontario as well as northeastern Ontario, while regions in western Ontario were projected to have the lowest rates of extirpation. This underscores the importance of mitigating greenhouse gases as a means to protect this iconic species

Intrusive Traumatic Re-Experiencing Domain: Functional Connectivity Feature Classification by the ENIGMA PTSD Consortium

Background: Intrusive traumatic re-experiencing domain (ITRED) was recently introduced as a novel perspective on posttraumatic psychopathology, proposing to focus research of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on the unique symptoms of intrusive and involuntary re-experiencing of the trauma, namely, intrusive memories, nightmares, and flashbacks. The aim of the present study was to explore ITRED from a neural network connectivity perspective. Methods: Data were collected from 9 sites taking part in the ENIGMA (Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta Analysis) PTSD Consortium (n = 584) and included itemized PTSD symptom scores and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) data. We assessed the utility of rsFC in classifying PTSD, ITRED-only (no PTSD diagnosis), and trauma-exposed (TE)–only (no PTSD or ITRED) groups using a machine learning approach, examining well-known networks implicated in PTSD. A random forest classification model was built on a training set using cross-validation, and the averaged cross-validation model performance for classification was evaluated using the area under the curve. The model was tested using a fully independent portion of the data (test dataset), and the test area under the curve was evaluated. Results: rsFC signatures differentiated TE-only participants from PTSD and ITRED-only participants at about 60% accuracy. Conversely, rsFC signatures did not differentiate PTSD from ITRED-only individuals (45% accuracy). Common features differentiating TE-only participants from PTSD and ITRED-only participants mainly involved default mode network–related pathways. Some unique features, such as connectivity within the frontoparietal network, differentiated TE-only participants from one group (PTSD or ITRED-only) but to a lesser extent from the other group. Conclusions: Neural network connectivity supports ITRED as a novel neurobiologically based approach to classifying posttrauma psychopathology

Neuroimaging-based classification of PTSD using data-driven computational approaches: A multisite big data study from the ENIGMA-PGC PTSD consortium

Background: Recent advances in data-driven computational approaches have been helpful in devising tools to objectively diagnose psychiatric disorders. However, current machine learning studies limited to small homogeneous samples, different methodologies, and different imaging collection protocols, limit the ability to directly compare and generalize their results. Here we aimed to classify individuals with PTSD versus controls and assess the generalizability using a large heterogeneous brain datasets from the ENIGMA-PGC PTSD Working group. Methods: We analyzed brain MRI data from 3,477 structural-MRI; 2,495 resting state-fMRI; and 1,952 diffusion-MRI. First, we identified the brain features that best distinguish individuals with PTSD from controls using traditional machine learning methods. Second, we assessed the utility of the denoising variational autoencoder (DVAE) and evaluated its classification performance. Third, we assessed the generalizability and reproducibility of both models using leave-one-site-out cross-validation procedure for each modality. Results: We found lower performance in classifying PTSD vs. controls with data from over 20 sites (60 % test AUC for s-MRI, 59 % for rs-fMRI and 56 % for D-MRI), as compared to other studies run on single-site data. The performance increased when classifying PTSD from HC without trauma history in each modality (75 % AUC). The classification performance remained intact when applying the DVAE framework, which reduced the number of features. Finally, we found that the DVAE framework achieved better generalization to unseen datasets compared with the traditional machine learning frameworks, albeit performance was slightly above chance. Conclusion: These results have the potential to provide a baseline classification performance for PTSD when using large scale neuroimaging datasets. Our findings show that the control group used can heavily affect classification performance. The DVAE framework provided better generalizability for the multi-site data. This may be more significant in clinical practice since the neuroimaging-based diagnostic DVAE classification models are much less site-specific, rendering them more generalizable

The impact of adversities across the lifespan on psychological symptom profiles in late adulthood: A latent profile analysis

People commonly face adverse circumstances throughout life, which increases risk for psychiatric disorders, such as anxiety, depression, psychosis, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Adversities may occur during different periods in life. Especially adversity during early periods has been suggested to put individuals at risk for adverse mental health outcomes. Here, we investigated whether timing of adversity during the prenatal period, childhood, or mid-to-late adulthood differentially impacted classification into late adulthood symptom profiles. We performed sex-stratified Latent Profile Analysis to identify latent profiles regarding anxious, depressive, psychotic, and PTSD symptoms in n = 568 Dutch famine birth cohort members (n = 294 women, n = 274 men, mean age(SD) = 72.9(0.8)). Cross-sectional late adulthood symptomatology, childhood traumatic maltreatment, and adulthood trauma were based on self-report questionnaires. Prenatal adversity was considered present when individuals were prenatally exposed to the 1944-45 Dutch famine. In both men and women we identified one anxious/depressive profile and three profiles with approximately equal severity of all symptom types within each profile, yet differentiating in overall severity (low, mild, high) between profiles. We additionally found a PTSD symptom profile in women. In men, logistic regression models showed significant associations between prenatal, childhood and adulthood adversity, and profile classification, with differential effects depending on timing and most profound effects of child maltreatment. In women, childhood and adulthood adversity significantly increased classification probability into almost all profiles, with no significant effect of prenatal adversity. These findings support a time-dependent and sex-specific impact of adversity during different periods across the lifespan on psychological health, with consequences into late adulthood

Examining the association between posttraumatic stress disorder and disruptions in cortical networks identified using data-driven methods

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with lower cortical thickness (CT) in prefrontal, cingulate, and insular cortices in diverse trauma-affected samples. However, some studies have failed to detect differences between PTSD patients and healthy controls or reported that PTSD is associated with greater CT. Using data-driven dimensionality reduction, we sought to conduct a well-powered study to identify vulnerable networks without regard to neuroanatomic boundaries. Moreover, this approach enabled us to avoid the excessive burden of multiple comparison correction that plagues vertex-wise methods. We derived structural covariance networks (SCNs) by applying non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to CT data from 961 PTSD patients and 1124 trauma-exposed controls without PTSD. We used regression analyses to investigate associations between CT within SCNs and PTSD diagnosis (with and without accounting for the potential confounding effect of trauma type) and symptom severity in the full sample. We performed additional regression analyses in subsets of the data to examine associations between SCNs and comorbid depression, childhood trauma severity, and alcohol abuse. NMF identified 20 unbiased SCNs, which aligned closely with functionally defined brain networks. PTSD diagnosis was most strongly associated with diminished CT in SCNs that encompassed the bilateral superior frontal cortex, motor cortex, insular cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, medial occipital cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, and posterior cingulate cortex. CT in these networks was significantly negatively correlated with PTSD symptom severity. Collectively, these findings suggest that PTSD diagnosis is associated with widespread reductions in CT, particularly within prefrontal regulatory regions and broader emotion and sensory processing cortical regions

Effects of prenatal exposure to the 1944–45 Dutch famine and glucocorticoid receptor polymorphisms on later life PTSD susceptibility

Background: Exposure to adversity in utero is thought to increase susceptibility to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following later life trauma, due to neurobiological programming effects during critical developmental periods. It remains unknown whether effects of prenatal adversity on PTSD susceptibility are modulated by genetic variations in neurobiological pathways implicated in PTSD susceptibility. Objective: We investigated whether genetic variation in the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) modulated effects of prenatal famine exposure on late adulthood PTSD symptom severity after trauma exposure in childhood and mid-to-late adulthood. Method: We included N = 439 term-born singleton adults (mean age: 72 years, 54.2% women) from the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort, born around the time of the Dutch Famine of 1944/1945, divided into exposure and control groups based on timing of the famine during gestation. Participants filled out self-report questionnaires on childhood (Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) and mid-to-late adulthood (Life Events Checklist for DSM-5) trauma, and current PTSD symptom severity (PTSD Checklist for DSM-5). GR haplotypes were determined from four functional GR single nucleotide polymorphisms (ER22/23EK, N363S, BclI and exon 9β) in previously collected DNA. Linear regression analyses were performed to investigate associations of GR haplotype and prenatal famine exposure in conjunction with later life trauma on PTSD symptom severity. Results: We observed a significant three-way interaction between the GR Bcll haplotype, famine exposure during early gestation, and adulthood trauma exposure on PTSD symptom severity in late adulthood. Only participants exposed to famine during early gestation without the GR Bcll haplotype showed a significantly stronger positive association between adulthood trauma and PTSD symptom severity than non-exposed participants, indicating increased PTSD susceptibility. Conclusions: Our results illustrate the importance of integrated approaches considering genetics and environmental contexts throughout various life periods, including the rarely investigated prenatal environment, to elucidate how PTSD susceptibility evolves throughout life. HIGHLIGHTS Adversity during pregnancy is thought to increase offspring's PTSD risk following later life trauma, but exact neurobiological mechanisms underlying this process remain unknown.We found that effects of prenatal famine exposure on PTSD symptom severity were influenced by genetic variation in the glucocorticoid receptor, which signals effects of the stress hormone cortisol. Integrated approaches considering genetics and environmental contexts throughout both early and later life are important to understand how PTSD risk evolves throughout life