The MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model and scenarios for transition risk analysis

This report provides background information to the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM scenarios that were selected to support transition risk analysis for the Task-Force for Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Banking Pilot Phase II. The first part provides an overview of the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model, its core methodology, main components and definitions. The second part discusses the selected scenarios and motivation for this selection. The selected scenario cover a range of emission reductions that vary in stringency and pace of emission reduction. We selected the following types of scenarios: Current policy scenarios that limit climate policy to currently implemented or announced policies (NPi: National implemented policies and NDC: Nationally Determined Contributions for 2030) and scenarios with immediate global climate action based on a carbon budget (Immediate2C and Immediate1p5C). Finally, scenarios with delayed global climate action scenarios based on carbon budgets (Delayed2C) and immediate global climate action based on a peak-temperature goal (LowCDR2C and LowCDR1p5C) represent cases with steep emission reductions either immediately or after 2030

Redirect and unleash clean energy investment to achieve Paris climate targets

Investment in low-carbon energy is making a difference. IIASA research now provides decision makers with valuable data on the capital required to ramp up renewables, boost energy efficiency, redirect energy portfolios, and fill investment gaps

Global residential scenarios towards low energy and material demands

Transition to low energy and material demand (LEMD) for buildings is key to reach climate change mitigation and sustainability targets but will require unprecedent technological and social transformations. Scenarios addressing LEMD transformations for the global building sector are still largely unexplored. In this study, we assess global residential energy and material demands until 2050 for three alternative sustainable development pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven innovation (EI), driven by technology and energy efficiency; Resilient communities (RC), a post-growth scenario centred around local communities and behavioural change; and Managing the global commons (MC), with strong global institutions and high electrification. We use the bottom-up framework MESSAGEix-Buildings, soft-linked to the integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, to model the three SDPs for the global residential sector. We show that the RC scenario entails the highest potential towards reducing energy and material demand driven by behavioural change. The EI and MC scenarios are characterized by relatively higher energy and material demand levels and might require additional efforts on the supply-side to reduce total building-related operational and construction greenhouse gases emissions. This study can support decision making on strategies towards sustainability and zero-energy and emission targets in the buildings sector

Impacts of Trade Friction and Climate Policy on Global Energy Trade Network

The trade impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised questions about the role of trade and climate policies in energy security and global emissions. This study updates a widely used integrated assessment model (IAM), MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, to represent complex trade networks to explicitly draw energy flows from their origins to their destination. It then examines the effects of (1) energy trade tariff policies, such as import tariffs, as a proxy to represent an unfriendly trade environment and (2) a global carbon emissions tax on the global energy trade network. Results indicate that trade tariff policies have marginal effects on the trade network, i.e., the size of trade and importing-exporting regions do not change significantly. While high import tariffs significantly reduce emissions due to reduced fossil fuel imports in the importing region, this effect does not translate to significant emission reductions globally, as trade policies only impact downstream of the energy supply chain. However, a carbon emission tax dramatically alters the trade network, by (1) reducing its size by up to 50% and (2) forming trade linkages that allow for a more complex and diverse network of suppliers. This diversity under the emissions tax scenario improves the energy security of major energy-importing regions. Moreover, under an emission tax scenario, a friendly trade environment reduces the energy system costs globally. However, trade friction, such as sanctions or high import tariffs, will increase the energy supply cost significantly, especially for energy-importing regions such as Europe, East and South Asia

Downscaling IAMs results to the country level – a new algorithm

This report presents a new tool for downscaling outputs from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) from model-native regions to the country level. The algorithm produces a range of pathways consistent with the underlying IAM-results, based on a range of criteria. Criteria used for the downscaling include historical data, planned capacities, country-available resource in the form of supply cost-curves, quality of governance as well as regional benchmarks based on IAM results. The tool can be used to explore the implications of Paris Agreement compatible pathways for energy systems and CO2 emissions at the country level and to enhance the regional comparison of IAMs. Finally, results could be used as inputs to other models, to provide national level information consistent with global IAM results

A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan

The evolution of long-term sustainable societies is closely connected to the transformation of the physical built environment in which those societies operate. In this paper, we present a comprehensive set of narratives for the built environment in Japan, consistent with the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) framework, to assess the future evolution of the adaptation and mitigation challenges. We focus on the linkage between sustainability factors and human living environments including urban form, buildings, and basic infrastructures. We introduce a new, sixth narrative to the SSPs, an alternative interpretation of SSP1. Whereas the original SSP1 assumes high societal and environmental sustainability combined with relatively high economic growth, the SSP1 variant does not highly rely on economic growth and is oriented towards a lower and more locally oriented consumption lifestyle. Nature-based solutions are integrated and examined in the new SSP1 narrative, which is aligned with the adaptation to the digital era with freedom of location. Recent global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate the transformation of societies. Therefore, this study attempts to imply the benefits and trade-offs of alternative pathways for the built environment

Stakeholder engagement in climate change solutions

Workshops bringing scientists together with stakeholders from various backgrounds have shown the importance of dialogue for co-designing climate pathways and highlighted the need for physical meetings and capacity building. To find and implement solutions to climate change and other complex problems that society faces, requires constructive dialogue between the research community and a wide range of other stakeholders. Since 2019, the ENGAGE project has developed and used a carefully designed stakeholder engagement process to co-design climate mitigation pathways through open discussions about a range of topics using a combination of surveys, visual tools, and presentations

Energizing building renovation: Unraveling the dynamic interplay of building stock evolution, individual behaviour, and social norms

In recent years, discussions surrounding climate change have increasingly emphasized the significance of demand-side solutions. This shift has led to an interdisciplinary and bottom-up approach aimed at supporting global efforts to mitigate climate change. However, conventional modelling tools used to understand the energy demand system and to inform policymaking often fall short in capturing bottom-up dynamics accurately and at the required level of granularity. This is particularly evident in the nuanced and complex aspects of behavioural and social changes and their interactions. This research introduces a novel coupled -agent-based and integrated assessment modelling framework designed to analyse the advantages arising from diversity in renovation decisions, social dynamics, and the evolution of residential building stocks. This study demonstrates that, to effectively formulate realistic policies leading to substantial changes in building energy demand, policymakers require decision-support tools that extend beyond the confines of the rationality principle