The returns to education: a review of the empirical macro-economic literature

The idea of positive educational externalities is that the benefits of individually acquired education may not be restricted to the individual but might spill over to others as well, accruing at higher aggregation levels, in particular at the macro-economic one. We offer an extensive summary and a critical discussion of the empirical literature on the impact of human capital on macro-economic performance, with a particular focus on UK policy. Key findings include: (1) Taking the studies as a whole, there is compelling evidence that human capital increases productivity. Although there is an important theoretical distinction between the augmented neo-classical approach and the new growth theories, the empirical literature is still largely divided on whether the stock of education affects the long-run level or growth rate of the economy. A one-year increase in average education is found to raise the level of output per capita by between 3 and 6 percent according to augmented neo-classical specifications, while it would lead to an over 1 percentage point faster growth according to estimates from the new-growth theories. (2) Over the short-run planning horizon (4 years) the empirical estimates of the change in GDP for a given increase in the human capital stock are of similar orders of magnitude in the two approaches. (3) The impact of increases at different levels of education appear to depend on the level of a country’s development, with tertiary/higher education being the most important for growth in OECD countries. (4) Education is found to yield additional indirect benefits to growth (in particular, by stimulating physical capital investments and technological development and adoption). More preliminary evidence seems to indicate that type, quality and efficiency of education all matter for growth. The most pressing methodological problems are the measurement of human capital; systematic differences in the coefficient of education across countries (in particular between developing and developed countries) and reverse causality. We also make recommendations for future research priorities

Real options, patents, productivity and market value: evidence from a panel of UK firms

Patents citations are a potentially powerful indicator of technological innovation. In this paper we describe the IFS-Leverhulme patents dataset that we have constructed by combining information from the US Case-Western Patent database with UK company accounts and share price information from the London Stock Exchange. Patents citations like patentc ounts, arehighly skewed and have a modal lag of four years. Analysing data on over 200 major British firms since 1968, we show that patents have an economically and statistically significant impacton firm-level productivity and market value. Patent citations contain more information than simple counts. A doubling in the stock of citation-weighted patents is associated with a four percent increase in (total factor) productivity and an eight percent increase in market value. As expected patenting and citation information feeds into market values immediately but appears to have some additional lagged effects of productivity suggesting gradual takeup of new technologies

Who gains when workers train? Training and corporate productivity in a panel of British industries

There is a vast empirical literature of the effects of training on wages that are taken as an indirect measure of productivity. This paper is part of a smaller literature on the effects of training on direct measures of industrial productivity. We analyse a panel of British industries between 1983 and 1996. Training information (and other individual productivity indicators such as education and experience) is derived from a question that has been asked consistently over time in the Labour Force Survey. This is combined with complementary industry-level data sources on value added, wages, labour and capital. We use a variety of panel data techniques (including system GMM) to argue that training significantly boosts productivity. The existing literature has underestimated the full effects of training for two reasons. First, it has tended to treat training as exogenous whereas in reality firms may choose to re-allocate workers to training when demand (and therefore productivity) is low. Secondly, our estimates of the effects of training on wages are about half the size of the effects on industrial productivity. It is misleading to ignore the pay-off firms take in higher profits from training. The effects are economically large. For example, raising the proportion of workers trained in an industry by 5 percentage points (say from the average of 10% to 15%) is associated with a 4 per cent increase in value added per worker and a 1.6 per cent increase in wages

Evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search program

This paper exploits area-based piloting and age-related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program—the New Deal for Young People in the U.K. A central focus is on substitution/displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects. The program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers. We find that the impact of the program significantly raised transitions to employment by about 5 percentage points. The impact is robust to a wide variety of nonexperimental estimators. However, we present some evidence that this effect may not be as large in the longer run

Evaluating the employment impact of a mandatory job search assistance program

This paper exploits area based piloting and age-related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program – the New Deal for Young People in the UK. A central focus is on substitution/displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects. The program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers. We find that the program significantly raised transitions to employment by about five percentage points (about 20 percent over the pre-program base). The impact is robust to a wide variety of non-experimental estimators. However we present some evidence suggesting that this effect may not be as large in the longer run

Evaluating the employment effects of a mandatory job search program

This paper exploits area based piloting and age-related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labor market program – the New Deal for Young People in the UK. A central focus is on substitution/displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects. The program includes extensive job assistance and wage subsidies to employers. We find that the initial impact of the program significantly raised transitions to unsubsidized employment by about five percentage points. The impact is robust to a wide variety of non-experimental estimators. However we present some evidence that this effect may not be as large in the longer run

The relationship between tooth material and the supporting structures of the teeth in a group of Kalahari bushmen

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The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data

This paper studies the implications of perceived default risk for aggregate output and productivity. Using a model of credit contracts with moral hazard, we show that a firm’s probability of default is a sufficient statistic for capital allocation. The t

The impact of competition on management quality: evidence from public hospitals

We analyse the causal impact of competition on managerial quality and hospital performance. To address the endogeneity of market structure we analyse the English public hospital sector where entry and exit are controlled by the central government. Because closing hospitals in areas where the governing party is expecting a tight election race (“marginals”) is rare due to the fear of electoral defeat, we can use political marginality as an instrumental variable for the number of hospitals in a geographical area. We find that higher competition results in higher management quality, measured using a new survey tool, and improved hospital performance. Adding a rival hospital increases management quality by 0.4 standard deviations and increases survival rates from emergency heart attacks by 9.7%. We confirm the robustness of our IV strategy to “hidden policies” that could be used in marginal districts to improve hospital management and to changes in capacity that may follow from hospital closure