Retrospective study on the possible existence of a treatment paradox in sepsis scores in the emergency department

OBJECTIVE: The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is developed as a tool to identify patients with infection with increased risk of dying from sepsis in non-intensive care unit settings, like the emergency department (ED). An abnormal score may trigger the initiation of appropriate therapy to reduce that risk. This study assesses the risk of a treatment paradox: the effect of a strong predictor for mortality will be reduced if that predictor also acts as a trigger for initiating treatment to prevent mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis on data from a large observational cohort. SETTING: ED of a tertiary medical centre in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 3178 consecutive patients with suspected infection. PRIMARY OUTCOME: To evaluate the existence of a treatment paradox by determining the influence of baseline qSOFA on treatment decisions within the first 24 hours after admission. RESULTS: 226 (7.1%) had a qSOFA ≥2, of which 51 (22.6%) died within 30 days. Area under receiver operating characteristics of qSOFA for 30-day mortality was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.75). Patients with a qSOFA ≥2 had higher odds of receiving any form of intensive therapy (OR 11.4 (95% CI 7.5 to 17.1)), such as aggressive fluid resuscitation (OR 8.8 95% CI 6.6 to 11.8), fast antibiotic administration (OR 8.5, 95% CI 5.7 to 12.3) or vasopressic therapy (OR 17.3, 95% CI 11.2 to 26.8), compared with patients with qSOFA <2. CONCLUSION: In ED patients with suspected infection, a qSOFA ≥2 was associated with more intensive treatment. This could lead to inadequate prediction of 30-day mortality due to the presence of a treatment paradox. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 6916

Molecular and Serological Intraocular Fluid Analysis of Coxiella burnetii-seropositive Patients with Concurrent Idiopathic Uveitis

Purpose: Previous studies have suggested a link between Q fever and uveitis. We determined whether Coxiella burnetii causes intraocular infection in C. burnetii-seropositive patients with idiopathic uveitis. Methods: From a retrospective observational case series, paired aqueous humor and serum samples from 10 C. burnetii-seropositive patients with idiopathic uveitis were examined for intraocular antibody production by using the Goldmann-Witmer coefficient and by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results: Although intraocular IgG against C. burnetii was detected, no intraocular antibody production was observed (low Goldmann Wittmer coefficients). All PCR results were negative. Conclusions: Uveitis due to an intraocular infection with C. burnetii is unlikely

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3751143 in P2RX7 is associated with therapy failure in chronic Q fever while rs7125062 in MMP1 is associated with fewer complications

OBJECTIVES: Chronic Q fever is a persistent infection with the intracellular bacterium Coxiella burnetii. Development of chronic Q fever is associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding for pattern recognition receptors, for phagolysosomal pathway components and for matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). We evaluated the association of SNPs in these innate-immunity and MMP genes with clinical outcomes. METHODS: SNPs were selected from previous association studies and analysed in a cohort of patients with chronic Q fever. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were therapy failure and chronic Q fever-related complications. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) were calculated. RESULTS: Nineteen SNPs were analysed in 134 patients with proven and 29 with probable chronic Q fever. In multivariable analysis, none of the selected SNPs was associated with all-cause mortality. However, SNP rs3751143 located in P2RX7 appeared to be associated with therapy failure (SHR 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-5.05; p 0.02), which is in line with other reports, showing that a loss of function of the P2X7 receptor leads to inefficient killing of intracellular organisms. In addition, SNP rs7125062 located in MMP1, involved in the cleavage of extracellular matrix, was associated with fewer chronic Q fever-related complications such as acute aneurysms (SHR 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.83; p 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: A polymorphism in P2RX7, known to lead to loss of function of the receptor and inefficient killing of intracellular organisms, and a polymorphism in MMP1 were respectively associated with more therapy failures and fewer complications such as acute aneurysms in patients with chronic Q fever

Potential impact of a new sepsis prediction model for the primary care setting: early health economic evaluation using an observational cohort

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the potential referral rate and cost impact at different cut-off points of a recently developed sepsis prediction model for general practitioners (GPs). DESIGN: Prospective observational study with decision tree modelling. SETTING: Four out-of-hours GP services in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 357 acutely ill adult patients assessed during home visits. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is the cost per patient from a healthcare perspective in four scenarios based on different cut-off points for referral of the sepsis prediction model. Second, the number of hospital referrals for the different scenarios is estimated. The potential impact of referral of patients with sepsis on mortality and hospital admission was estimated by an expert panel. Using these study data, a decision tree with a time horizon of 1 month was built to estimate the referral rate and cost impact in case the model would be implemented. RESULTS: Referral rates at a low cut-off (score 2 or 3 on a scale from 0 to 6) of the prediction model were higher than observed for patients with sepsis (99% and 91%, respectively, compared with 88% observed). However, referral was also substantially higher for patients who did not need hospital assessment. As a consequence, cost-savings due to referral of patients with sepsis were offset by increased costs due to unnecessary referral for all cut-offs of the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Guidance for referral of adult patients with suspected sepsis in the primary care setting using any cut-off point of the sepsis prediction model is not likely to save costs. The model should only be incorporated in sepsis guidelines for GPs if improvement of care can be demonstrated in an implementation study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dutch Trial Register (NTR 7026)

Long-term serological follow-up after primary Coxiella burnetii infection in patients with vascular risk factors for chronic Q fever

We evaluated the long-term serological follow-up of patients with vascular risk factors for chronic Q fever that were previously Coxiella burnetii seropositive. C. burnetii phase I IgG titers were reevaluated in patients that gave informed consent or retrospectively collected in patients already deceased or lost to follow-up. Of 107 patients, 25 (23.4%) became seronegative, 77 (72.0%) retained a profile of past resolved Q fever infection, and five (4.7%) developed chronic Q fever. We urge clinicians to stay vigilant for chronic Q fever beyond two years after primary infection and perform serological testing based on clinical presentation

New clinical prediction model for early recognition of sepsis in adult primary care patients:a prospective diagnostic cohort study of development and external validation

Background Recognising patients who need immediate hospital treatment for sepsis while simultaneously limiting unnecessary referrals is challenging for GPs.Aim To develop and validate a sepsis prediction model for adult patients in primary care.Design and setting This was a prospective cohort study in four out-of-hours primary care services in the Netherlands, conducted between June 2018 and March 2020.Method Adult patients who were acutely ill and received home visits were included. A total of nine clinical variables were selected as candidate predictors, next to the biomarkers C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate. The primary endpoint was sepsis within 72 hours of inclusion, as established by an expert panel. Multivariable logistic regression with backwards selection was used to design an optimal model with continuous clinical variables. The added value of the biomarkers was evaluated. Subsequently, a simple model using single cut-off points of continuous variables was developed and externally validated in two emergency department populations.Results A total of 357 patients were included with a median age of 80 years (interquartile range 71–86), of which 151 (42%) were diagnosed with sepsis. A model based on a simple count of one point for each of six variables (aged &gt;65 years; temperature &gt;38°C; systolic blood pressure ≤110 mmHg; heart rate &gt;110/min; saturation ≤95%; and altered mental status) had good discrimination and calibration (C-statistic of 0.80 [95% confidence interval = 0.75 to 0.84]; Brier score 0.175). Biomarkers did not improve the performance of the model and were therefore not included. The model was robust during external validation.Conclusion Based on this study’s GP out-of-hours population, a simple model can accurately predict sepsis in acutely ill adult patients using readily available clinical parameters

Chronic Q fever diagnosis—consensus guideline versus expert opinion

Chronic Q fever, caused by Coxiella burnetii, has high mortality and morbidity rates if left untreated. Controversy about the diagnosis of this complex disease has emerged recently. We applied the guideline from the Dutch Q Fe­ver Consensus Group and a set of diagnostic criteria pro­posed by Didier Raoult to all 284 chronic Q fever patients included in the Dutch National Chronic Q Fever Database during 2006–2012. Of the patients who had proven cas­es of chronic Q fever by the Dutch guideline, 46 (30.5%) would not have received a diagnosis by the alternative cri­teria designed by Raoult, and 14 (4.9%) would have been considered to have possible chronic Q fever. Six patients with proven chronic Q fever died of related causes. Until results from future studies are available, by which current guidelines can be modified, we believe that the Dutch lit­erature-based consensus guideline is more sensitive and easier to use in clinical practice