Plausibility in models and fiction: What integrated assessment modellers can learn from an interaction with climate fiction

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are critical tools to explore possible pathways to a low-carbon future. By simulating complex interactions between social and climatic processes, they help policymakers to systematically compare mitigation policies. However, their authoritative projections of cost-effective and technically feasible pathways restrict more transformative low-carbon imaginaries, especially because IAM pathways are often understood in terms of probability rather than plausibility. We suggest an interaction with climate fiction could be helpful to address this situation. Despite fundamental differences, we argue that both IAMs and climate fiction can be seen as practices of storytelling about plausible future worlds. For this exploratory article, we staged conversations between modellers and climate fiction writers to compare their respective processes of storytelling and the content of both their stories and story-worlds, focusing specifically on how they build plausibility. Whereas modellers rely on historical observations, expert judgment, transparency and rationality to build plausibility, fiction writers build plausibility by engaging with readers’ life worlds and experience, concreteness and emotionally meaningful details. Key similarities were that both modellers and fiction writers work with what-if questions, a causally connected story and build their stories through an iterative process. Based on this comparison, we suggest that an interaction between IAMs and climate fiction could be useful for improving the democratic and epistemic qualities of the IAM practice by 1) enabling a more equal dialogue between modellers and societal actors on plausible futures and 2) critically reflecting upon and broadening the spectrum of plausible futures provided by IAM

Transformative pathways : using integrated assessment models more effectively to open up plausible and desirable low-carbon futures

Integrated assessment models (IAM) and resulting scenarios have become increasingly institutionalised and relevant in the science-policy interface of climate policy. Despite their analytical strengths to conceive low-carbon futures, their co-evolution with the transnational science-policy interface of climate politics has also led to a focus on a specific set of techno-economic futures that are typically based on a relatively narrow set of assumptions. This deviates attention from alternatives that are hardly studied by IAMs, but might be more desirable from a societal perspective. We argue that research-based models and scenarios should support rather than narrow down deliberations on possible and desirable futures and provide an impetus to enact socially desirable change. Accordingly, we propose three future directions regarding the development and use of IAMs: 1) incorporate a plurality of perspectives on plausibility and desirability through iterative participatory engagement and worldview-based scenario exploration, 2) seek collaboration with the arts and humanities to expand the range of imagined futures beyond the status quo and 3) make projected futures more tangible and experiential so that diverse societal actor groups can understand and genuinely engage with them. By deploying the indisputable analytical strengths of IAMs optimally within these suggestions, we believe they can facilitate broader societal debates about transformative pathways to low-carbon futures

The effects of serious gaming on risk perceptions of climate tipping points

A growing body of research indicates that effective science-policy interactions demand novel approaches, especially in policy domains with long time horizons like climate change. Serious games offer promising opportunities in this regard, but empirical research on game effects and games’ effectiveness in supporting science-policy engagement remains limited. We investigated the effects of a role-playing simulation game on risk perceptions associated with climate tipping points among a knowledgeable and engaged audience of non-governmental observers of the international climate negotiations and scientists. We analysed its effects on concern, perceived seriousness, perceived likelihood and psychological distance of tipping points, using pre- and post-game surveys, debriefing questions and game observations. Our findings suggest that the game reduced the psychological distance of tipping points, rendering them more ‘real’, proximate and tangible for participants. More generally, our findings indicate that role-playing simulation games, depending on their design and future orientation, can provide effective science-policy engagement tools that allow players to engage in future thinking and corresponding meaning making.publishedVersio

Experts and expertise in practices of citizen engagement in climate policy: a comparative analysis of two contrasting cases

The need for engaging citizens in climate policymaking is increasingly recognised. Despite indications that the form of expert involvement can strongly influence participatory processes, this remains scarcely researched. We analysed two unique and contrasting cases of citizen engagement in national climate mitigation policy: (1) the Irish Citizens’ Assembly (ICA), the first national climate assembly involving live expert presentations and face-to-face deliberations; and (2) the Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) on Dutch climate policymaking, where more than 10,000 citizens compared policy options in an online environment based on expert-based information on policy effects. Taking a dramaturgical approach, we found that the opening up and closing down of policy options and perspectives was influenced by the setting, staging and scripting of expertise. Apart from providing information on policy options, experts had significant roles in design choices and formulating recommendations, which shaped citizens’ deliberations and policy advice. In deliberative processes, citizens’ deliberations can be further influenced by putting experts in a privileged spot and emphasising their authority, whereas in the setting of an online tool, experts’ design choices may be masked by the fact-like presentation of expertise. Future research should further investigate the role of experts and expertise across a wider range of practices. Nevertheless, we conclude that the high degree of required technical knowledge in climate mitigation policy naturally implies strong expert involvement, which concomitantly steers the results. Alternatively, we may search to enhance citizens’ engagement in guiding climate policymakers by focusing on citizens’ normative perspectives

Navigating the political: An analysis of political calibration of integrated assessment modelling in light of the 1.5 °C goal

Some of the most influential explorations of low-carbon transformations are conducted with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The recent attempts by the IPCC to look for pathways compatible with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature goals are a case in point. Earlier scholarship indicates that model-based pathways are persuasive in bringing specific possible future alternatives into view and guiding policymaking. However, the process through which these shared imaginations of possible futures come about is not yet well understood. By closely examining the science-policy dynamics around the IPCC SR1.5, we observe a sequence of mutually legitimising interactions between modelling and policy making through which the 1.5 °C goal gradually gained traction in global climate politics. Our findings reveal a practice of ‘political calibration’, a continuous relational readjustment between modelling and the policy community. This political calibration is indicative of how modellers navigate climate politics to maintain policy relevance. However, this navigation also brings key dilemmas for modellers, between 1) requirements of the policy process and experts’ conviction of realism; 2) perceived political sensitivities and widening the range of mitigation options; and 3) circulating crisp storylines and avoiding policy-prescriptiveness. Overall, these findings call into question the political neutrality of IAMs in its current position in the science-policy interface and suggest a future orientation in which modellers aim to develop additional relations with a broader set of publics resulting in more diverse perspectives on plausible and desirable futures

Not just playing: The politics of designing games for impact on anticipatory climate governance

Simulation games are increasingly popular tools for opening up future imaginaries, especially in the arena of sustainability policy-making and decision support. However, there is a lack of understanding regarding the potential power of games in anticipatory governance. We argue that the utility of simulation games in support of anticipatory climate governance can be greatly increased when game processes are consciously designed to impact present day planning and action. At the same time, game designers with the intention to support or intervene in governance and policy-making inevitably enter political arenas and bear responsibility for understanding and managing their influence at the science-policy interface. We present two case studies: a game simulating a sustainable food policy council with food system actors in Kyoto, Japan, and a game focused on the exploration and imagination of the global impacts of climate tipping points aimed at participants of the global climate negotiation community. Each case study represents a specific logic for translating game play into real-world impacts at different governance scales with distinct political implications. Based on these two case studies, we develop principles for the design and evaluation of simulation games that seek to impact anticipatory climate governance, based on five lenses: (1) purpose and positionality; (2) conceptions of the future and imaginaries; (3) beneficiaries, key stakeholders and participants; (4) the politics of game features and design; and (5) evaluation

Prevalence of neoplasia at colonoscopy among testicular cancer survivors treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

Testicular cancer survivors (TCS) treated with platinum-based chemotherapy have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We determined the yield of colonoscopy in TCS to assess its potential in reducing CRC incidence and mortality. We conducted a colonoscopy screening study among TCS in four Dutch hospitals to assess the yield of colorectal neoplasia. Neoplasia was defined as adenomas, serrated polyps (SPs), advanced adenomas (AAs: ≥10 mm diameter, high-grade dysplasia or ≥25% villous component), advanced serrated polyps (ASPs: ≥10 mm diameter or dysplasia) or CRC. Advanced neoplasia (AN) was defined as AA, ASP or CRC. Colonoscopy yield was compared to average-risk American males who underwent screening colonoscopy (n = 24,193) using a propensity score matched analysis, adjusted for age, smoking status, alcohol consumption and body mass index. A total of 137 TCS underwent colonoscopy. Median age was 50 years among TCS (IQR 43–57) vs 55 years (IQR 51–62) among American controls. A total of 126 TCS were matched to 602 controls. The prevalence of AN was higher in TCS than in controls (8.7% vs 1.7%; P =.0002). Nonadvanced adenomas and SPs were detected in 45.2% of TCS vs 5.5% of controls (P &lt;.0001). No lesions were detected in 46.0% of TCS vs 92.9% of controls (P &lt;.0001). TCS treated with platinum-based chemotherapy have a higher prevalence of neoplasia and AN than matched controls. These results support our hypothesis that platinum-based chemotherapy increases the risk of colorectal neoplasia in TCS. Cost-effectiveness studies are warranted to ascertain the threshold of AN prevalence that justifies the recommendation of colonoscopy for TCS.</p

Prevalence of neoplasia at colonoscopy among testicular cancer survivors treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

Testicular cancer survivors (TCS) treated with platinum-based chemotherapy have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We determined the yield of colonoscopy in TCS to assess its potential in reducing CRC incidence and mortality. We conducted a colonoscopy screening study among TCS in four Dutch hospitals to assess the yield of colorectal neoplasia. Neoplasia was defined as adenomas, serrated polyps (SPs), advanced adenomas (AAs: ≥10 mm diameter, high-grade dysplasia or ≥25% villous component), advanced serrated polyps (ASPs: ≥10 mm diameter or dysplasia) or CRC. Advanced neoplasia (AN) was defined as AA, ASP or CRC. Colonoscopy yield was compared to average-risk American males who underwent screening colonoscopy (n = 24,193) using a propensity score matched analysis, adjusted for age, smoking status, alcohol consumption and body mass index. A total of 137 TCS underwent colonoscopy. Median age was 50 years among TCS (IQR 43–57) vs 55 years (IQR 51–62) among American controls. A total of 126 TCS were matched to 602 controls. The prevalence of AN was higher in TCS than in controls (8.7% vs 1.7%; P =.0002). Nonadvanced adenomas and SPs were detected in 45.2% of TCS vs 5.5% of controls (P &lt;.0001). No lesions were detected in 46.0% of TCS vs 92.9% of controls (P &lt;.0001). TCS treated with platinum-based chemotherapy have a higher prevalence of neoplasia and AN than matched controls. These results support our hypothesis that platinum-based chemotherapy increases the risk of colorectal neoplasia in TCS. Cost-effectiveness studies are warranted to ascertain the threshold of AN prevalence that justifies the recommendation of colonoscopy for TCS.</p

New insights into the kinetics and variability of egg excretion in controlled human hookworm infections

Four healthy volunteers were infected with 50 Necator americanus infective larvae (L3) in a controlled human hookworm infection trial and followed for 52 weeks. The kinetics of fecal egg counts in volunteers was assessed with Bayesian multilevel analysis, which revealed an increase between weeks 7 and 13, followed by an egg density plateau of about 1000 eggs/g of feces. Variation in egg counts was minimal between same-day measurements but varied considerably between days, particularly during the plateau phase. These analyses pave the way for the controlled human hookworm model to accelerate drug and vaccine efficacy studies

Diagnostic yield of colonoscopy surveillance in testicular cancer survivors treated with platinum-based chemotherapy: study protocol of a prospective cross-sectional cohort study

Background: Testicular cancer (TC) survivors have an increased risk of various second primary malignancies. A recent cohort study detected an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in TC survivors treated with platinum-based chemotherapy with a hazard ratio of 3.9. CRC risk increased with higher cisplatin-dose. We know that colonoscopy surveillance in high-risk populations results in reduced incidence and mortality of CRC. TC survivors treated with platinum-based chemotherapy can potentially benefit from colonoscopy surveillance; however, to which extent is unknown. Furthermore, the pathogenesis of these secondary CRCs is unknown, and better insights into the carcinogenesis may affect surveillance decisions. Methods: This prospective multicenter study will be performed in four Dutch hospitals. TC survivors are eligible if treated with ≥ 3 cycles of cisplatin before age 50. Colonoscopy will be performed ≥ 8 years after initial treatment (minimum and maximum ages at colonoscopy, 35 and 75 years, respectively). The primary aim of the study is the diagnostic yield of advanced neoplasia detected during colonoscopy. As secondary aim, we will evaluate the molecular profile of advanced colorectal neoplasia and will assess current platinum levels in blood and urine and correlate blood-platinum levels with prevalence of colorectal lesions. Furthermore, we will investigate effectiveness of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and burden of colonoscopy by two questionnaires. Demographic data, previous history, results of colonoscopy, hemoglobin level of FIT and results of molecular and platinum levels will be obtained. Yield of colonoscopy will be determined by detection rate of adenoma and serrated lesions, advanced adenoma detection rate and CRC detection rate. The MISCAN model will be used for cost-effectiveness analyses of CRC surveillance. With 234 participants undergoing colonoscopy, we can detect an absolute difference of 6% of advanced neoplasia with 80% power. Discussion: TC survivors treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy can benefit from CRC surveillance. Evaluation of the diagnostic performance and patient acceptance of CRC surveillance is of importance to develop surveillance recommendations. Insight into the carcinogenesis of cisplatin-related advanced colorectal lesions will contribute to CRC prevention in the increasing number of TC survivors. The results may also be important for the many other cancer survivors treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. Trial registration: Clinical Trials: NCT04180033, November 27, 2019, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/sh