Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe

This paper presents two scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe with varying trends in globalisation, technological progress and energy efficiency. From these scenarios, we conclude that the trend towards a services economy is likely to continue with employment shifting away from manufacturing towards services. However, manufacturing production still grows and is important for trade in Europe. The sectors which are already the most open ones for international trade are also the ones mostly affected by this trend. These include chemicals, rubber and plastics, the combined machinery and equipment sectors, textiles and wearing apparel, and wood and other manufacturing. R&D policies and internal market policies in Europe can have strong positive impact on manufacturing. These policies do not alter the trend that Europe's share in global production and trade will continue to decline, but they do mitigate the overall decline, in particular in the chemicals, rubber and plastics, and combined machinery and equipment sectors.

Reducing the administrative burden in the European Union

The Netherlands wants to reduce the administrative burden for businesses between 2003 and 2007 with a quarter. With the aid of the so called Standard Cost Model, the burden is estimated to amount to 16.4 billion euro in 2002. This is about 3.6 % of the Dutch gross domestic product (GDP). However, a significant part of the administrative burden, over 40% of the total, is the direct result of international, mainly European legislation. This makes the reduction of the administrative burden a European issue. Besides, a reduction in one member state may affect the economies in other member states. This memorandum considers the direct and indirect effects of reducing the administrative burden on firms. Reducing the burden is expected among other things to boost investment, adding to the increase in production and labour productivity. For an individual country a unilateral reduction probably has different effects than a reduction that is part of a co-ordinated, European effort to scale down the administrative burden of government regulations. To assess the indirect effects, within the economy of the European Union and between European economies, we employ the CPBÂ’s general-equilibrium model WorldScan, which simultaneously takes account of the different product and factor markets in the world economy and which models many European economies in detail. The Netherlands is one of the very few countries, which currently has detailed information on the administrative burden of government regulations. Therefore, we assume that the key figures for the Netherlands also hold for the other member states of the European Union. This assumption implies that for the whole European Union an administrative burden exists of 340 billion euro in 2002. Better data for other member states are needed to arrive at a complete assessment of direct and indirect effects.

Quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of traffic externalities on housing prices

This paper studies the effects on house prices of traffic nuisance on local streets. As source of exogenous variation in traffic nuisance we use the opening of a new state highway N14 in the Netherlands. This transport innovation altered the traffic density on the adjacent streets for some households, but left others unaffected. Controlling for spatial and house heterogeneity, we find that doubling of traffic density reduces housing prices with about 2%, what implies an upper value of traffic noise discount of about 0.5% per decibel. Our results indicate further that traffic nuisance discounts are likely to be misestimated in cross-sectional studies because nuisance tends to be correlated with omitted neighbourhood and housing amenities.

Non-C02 greenhouse gases; all gases count

Under the Kyoto Protocol, a group of countries commit themselves to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases to some 5% below the 1990 level. Countries can decide to spread their reduction commitment over several gases to lower compliance costs. Employing a multi-gas strategy can offer considerable efficiency gains because of the widely diverging marginal abatement cost for the different emission sources. In this Discussion Paper, the analysis of climate policy for the most important greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, is extended with two other important greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide. The multi-region and multi-sector Applied General Equilibrium model WorldScan has been used as an instrument for addressing this issue. The approach presented is consistent with the bottom-up information on reduction possibilities for those non-CO2 greenhouse gases while it allows for general equilibrium effects and intergas interactions. Including non-CO2 greenhouse gases into the analysis has important sectoral impacts while the regional effects are limited. A considerable part of the burden on gas, coal and oil products will be shifted to the agricultural sectors. Reductions of non-CO2 gases could be especially important for countries like China and India.

The economic effects Croatia's accession to the EU

We explore the economic implications of the possible accession of Croatia to the European Union. We focus on two main changes associated with the EU-membership: accession to the internal European Market and institutional reforms in Croatia triggered by the EU-membership. Consumption per capita in Croatia is estimated to rise by about 2.5% as a result of accession to the internal market. In particular the textile and wearing apparel sectors expand. If Croatia succeeds in reforming its domestic institutions in response to the EU-membership, income levels in Croatia could increase even more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that GDP per capita in Croatia could even rise by additional 8%. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for the existing EU countries are negligible.

Quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of traffic externalities on housing prices

This paper studies the effects on house prices of traffic nuisance on local streets. As source of exogenous variation in traffic nuisance we use the opening of a new state highway N14 in the Netherlands. This transport innovation altered the traffic density on the adjacent streets for some households, but left others unaffected. Controlling for spatial and house heterogeneity, we find that doubling of traffic density reduces housing prices with about 2%, what implies an upper value of traffic noise discount of about 0.5% per decibel. Our results indicate further that traffic nuisance discounts are likely to be misestimated in cross-sectional studies because nuisance tends to be correlated with omitted neighbourhood and housing amenities

Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis

WorldScan is a recursively dynamic general equilibrium model for the world economy, developed for the analysis of long-term issues in international economics. The model is used both as a tool to construct long-term scenarios and as an instrument for policy impact assessments, e.g. in the fields of climate change, economic integration and trade. In general, with each application WorldScan is also adapted. This publication brings the model changes together, explains the model's current structure and illustrates the model's usage with some applications.

Post-2012 climate policy scenarios

The cost and effectiveness of climate policy in Europe depend on the international post-2012 climate regime. Crucial are the stringency of the policy and the size of the climate coalition, e.g. the willingness of regions outside Europe to implement a climate policy. This report analyzes four alternative policy scenarios. These four scenarios are characterised along two dimensions: the sense of urgency expressed by the policy goal, and the willingness to resolve the climate problem through concerted action. This analysis provides a background for identifying the best mitigation options, both in the Netherlands and the EU. Only if all major countries become actively involved in emissions abatement before 2020, the EU 2 degrees climate target is feasible. In smaller coalitions the costs to coalition members and the environmental ineffectiveness tend to increase.

Ekonomski učinci pristupanja Hrvatske Europskoj uniji

We explore the economic implications of Croatia\u27s possible accession to the European Union. We focus on two main changes associated with the EU-membership: accession to the internal European Market and institutional reforms in Croatia triggered by the EUmembership. GDP per capita in Croatia is estimated to rise by about 1.1 percent as a result of accession to the internal market. In particular the textile and wearing apparel sectors expand. If Croatia succeeds in reforming its domestic institutions in response to the EU-membership, income levels in Croatia could increase even more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that GDP per capita in Croatia could even rise by additional 8 percent. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for the existing EU countries are negligible.U radu se analiziraju ekonomski učinci mogućeg pristupanja Hrvatske Europskoj uniji. Pritom je pažnja usmjerena na dvije osnovne promjene povezane s članstvom u EU-u: jedna se odnosi na pristupanje zajedničkom unutrašnjem tržištu EU-a, a druga na institucionalne reforme potaknute članstvom. Procjene ukazuju da bi BDP po stanovniku u Hrvatskoj mogao porasti za oko 1,1 posto kao posljedica pridruživanja zajedničkom unutrašnjem tržištu. Posebno bi se značajni pozitivni učinci mogli odraziti u povećanju proizvodnje tekstilne industrije i industrije odjeće. Ako bi, kao rezultat članstva u EU-u, Hrvatska uspjela unaprijediti svoje institucije, razina dohotka bi mogla dodatno porasti. Okvirne procjene upućuju da bi BDP po stanovniku u tom slučaju mogao porasti za dodatnih 8 posto. Istovremeno su makroekonomski učinci pristupanja Hrvatske EU-u na njezine postojeće članice neznatni