232 research outputs found
Stormiest winter on record for Ireland and UK
Meteorological agencies of Ireland and the UK have confirmed that winter (December to
February) 2013-14 (W2013/14) set records for precipitation totals and the occurrence of
extreme wind speeds1,2,3. Less clear is whether storminess (characterised as the frequency
and intensity of cyclones) during W2013/14 was equally unprecedented. We assess multidecadal
variations in storminess by considering frequency and intensity together and find
that W2013/14 was indeed exceptional. Given the potential societal impacts there is clearly
a need to better understand the processes driving extreme cyclonic activity in the North
Atlantic (NA)
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Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa
Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator
Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years
Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940s is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using 14C and 137Cs) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia
Recent Walker Circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming
An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s (ref. 1) has caused widespread climate perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific, strengthening of Indo-Pacific ocean currents, and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The corresponding intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface warming. In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. Our study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s
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Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall
Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African
monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability
during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the
severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread
impacts1â6. Research into the causes of this drought has
identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing3,4,7 and changes in
sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs 1,2,6,8â11) as the most
important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some
recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2â6,11â14, although not to
the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we
report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a
state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes
of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence
of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
was the main cause, with an additional role for changes
in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that
recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a
significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response
to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is
consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed
recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust
predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the
recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be
sustained or amplified in the near term
Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 161-166, doi:10.1038/nclimate1353.Subtropical western boundary currents are warm, fast flowing currents that
form on the western side of ocean basins. They carry warm tropical water to the
mid-latitudes and vent large amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere
along their paths, affecting atmospheric jet streams and mid-latitude storms, as
well as ocean carbon uptake. The possibility that these highly energetic and
nonlinear currents might change under greenhouse gas forcing has raised
significant concerns, but detecting such changes is challenging owing to limited
observations. Here, using reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and
newly developed century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we
find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these
currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean warming
rate. The accelerated warming is associated with a synchronous poleward shift
and/or intensification of global subtropical western boundary currents in
conjunction with a systematic change in winds over both hemispheres. This enhanced warming may reduce ocean's ability to absorb anthropogenic carbon
dioxide over these regions. However, uncertainties in detection and attribution of
these warming trends remain, pointing to a need for a long-term monitoring
network of the global western boundary currents and their extensions.This work is supported by China National Key Basic Research Project
(2007CB411800) and National Natural Science Foundation Projects (40788002,
40921004). WC is supported by the Australian Climate Change Science program and
the Southeast Australia Climate Initiative. HN is supported in part by the Japanese
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology through Grant-in-Aid
for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas #2205 and by the Japanese Ministry of
Environment through Global Environment Research Fund (S-5). MJM is supported by
NOAAâs Climate Program Office.2012-07-2
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming
Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus
Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Niña-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the heat missing from the atmosphere is therefore expected to be stored in the Pacific Ocean. However, in situ hydrographic records indicate that Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing9. Here, we analyse observations along with simulations from a global oceanâsea ice model to track the pathway of heat. We find that the enhanced heat uptake by the Pacific Ocean has been compensated by an increased heat transport from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, carried by the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, Indian Ocean heat content has increased abruptly, which accounts for more than 70% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 m during the past decade. We conclude that the Indian Ocean has become increasingly important in modulating global climate variability
Present day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves
Substantial warming occurred across North America, Europe and the Arctic over the early twentieth century1, including an increase in global drought2, that was partially forced by rising greenhouse gases (GHGs)3. The period included the 1930s Dust Bowl drought4,5,6,7 across North Americaâs Great Plains that caused widespread crop failures4,8, large dust storms9 and considerable out-migration10. This coincided with the central United States experiencing its hottest summers of the twentieth century11,12 in 1934 and 1936, with over 40 heatwave days and maximum temperatures surpassing 44â°C at some locations13,14. Here we use a large-ensemble regional modelling framework to show that GHG increases caused slightly enhanced heatwave activity over the eastern United States during 1934 and 1936. Instead of asking how a present-day heatwave would behave in a world without climate warming, we ask how these 1930s heatwaves would behave with present-day GHGs. Heatwave activity in similarly rare events would be much larger under todayâs atmospheric GHG forcing and the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40âyears. A key driver of the increasing heatwave activity and intensity is reduced evaporative cooling and increased sensible heating during dry springs and summers
Corals record long-term Leeuwin current variability including Ningaloo Niño/Niña since 1795
Variability of the Leeuwin current (LC) off Western Australia is a footprint of interannual and decadal climate variations in the tropical Indo-Pacific. La Niña events often result in a strengthened LC, high coastal sea levels and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), termed Ningaloo Niño. The rarity of such extreme events and the response of the southeastern Indian Ocean to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to the lack of long-term records. Here we use well-replicated coral SST records from within the path of the LC, together with a reconstruction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to hindcast historical SST and LC strength from 1795 to 2010. We show that interannual and decadal variations in SST and LC strength characterized the past 215 years and that the most extreme sea level and SST anomalies occurred post 1980. These recent events were unprecedented in severity and are likely aided by accelerated global ocean warming and sea-level rise. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited
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