A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia

Colombia is currently the world’s largest producer of coca leaf and the principal producer of opium poppies in the Americas; the plants are the basic raw materials used to produce cocaine and heroin. This document analyses the current relationship between these crops and illegal armed groups in Colombia, using the hypothesis that the geographical intensification of the conflict is the principal cause of expanding illicit crop production. This relationship was analysed using a theoretical model, in which an interaction between illegal armed activity and strategic territorial control lead to cocaine production. Spatial analysis techniques were then applied, especially spatial association indicators; and a clear spatial dynamic was observed, related to the two aspects mentioned above. Non-parametric exercises were also carried out using matching estimators, to determine the effect illegal armed groups have on coca crops, and also to analyse the efficiency of aerial eradication policies. The results suggest that a large percentage of coca production in Colombia is due to the effects of illegal armed activity. We therefore conclude that the expansion of illegal crop growing is a consequence of the expanding conflict. In contrast, coca crops can only be used to explain a small part of the armed conflict in Colombia. In addition, we found that crop eradication via aerial spraying has not been an efficient tool in the fight against coca production in the country

Decentralization and Access to Social Services in Colombia

A central claim in favor of decentralization is that it will improve access to public services, but few studies examine this question empirically. This paper explores the effects of decentralization on access to health and education in Colombia. We benefit from an original database that includes over 95% of Colombian municipalities. Our results show that decentralization improved enrollment rates in public schools and access of the poor to public health services. In both sectors, improving access was driven by the financial contributions of local governments. Our theoretical findings imply that local governments with better information about local preferences will concentrate their resources in the areas their voters care about most. The combination of empirical and theoretical results implies that decentralization provides local officials with the information and incentives they need to allocate resources in a manner responsive to voters´ needs, and improve the quality of expenditures so as to maximize their impact. The end result is greater usage of local services by citizens.decentralization, education, health, public investment, Colombia, localgovernment.

CONFLICT, DECENTRALISATION AND LOCAL GOVERNANCE IN COLOMBIA, 1974-2004

The objective of this paper is to determine the variables that explain the geographical expansion and armed activity of Colombian irregular groups since the mid seventies, taking into account the role of the political, fiscal and budgetary decentralization and its effects over local governance. This period of Colombian history (1974-2004) has been graved by strong economic, social and institutional changes that have deepened particularly since the decentralization process of the mid eighties. In fact, this paper states that decentralization process transformed the conflict into a dispute over the local power, intensifying the use of violence in order to appropriate part of the public goods and resources, interfere the political process and consolidate the group´s territorial control. The analysis of the illegal group´s early activity (1974-1982) shows that the use of violence is explained by grievances such as poverty or inequality. However, subsequent years reveal deep changes in the illegal group´s strategic procedures in which the decentralization process have given them incentives to control the local governments by using violence (greed). The results demonstrate a strong and significant relationship between the intensification of the armed conflict and the greater political, budgetary and fiscal autonomy of local governments. In fact, the presence of local resources such as royalties and taxes triggers violence against politicians being more intense in the municipalities where the actions of the illegal groups are higher.Armed conflict, Violence, Decentralization, Local governance, Spatial Econometrics

The educational effects of 19th century disentailment of catholic church land in Colombia.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of land concentration prompted by the distribution of disentailed Church land during the second half of the 19th century on the accumulation of human capital, in early 20th century Colombia1. Utilizing existing primary sources on the process of land disentailment and the 1912 National Census, descriptive statistics and econometric evidence show a significant and negative relationship between the amount of disentailed land during the 1870s at municipal level with literacy and school enrollment rates of males in 1912.Disentailment policy, land concentration, institutions, human capital, Colombian history

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISES UNDER FIXED EXCHANGE RATE IN COLOMBIA: 1938-1967

Between 1938 and 1967, including the Bretton Woods period after 1947, Colombia pegged its currency to the dollar. Although the exchange rate was fixed, the peso was devaluated more than 12% on six occasions. The devaluation episodes were complex, traumatic, highly politicized and had costly macroeconomic effects. The Bretton Woods agreement stated that countries could only devalue their exchange rate in the presence of fundamental imbalances driven, for example, by structural terms of trade deterioration. However, this paper states that in Colombia, the imbalance in the money market was a key factor in explaining the exchange rate crises during the period. The paper is organized as follows: first, a simple theoretical model of a small open economy with imperfect capital mobility is described in order to examine the possible causes of nominal devaluations; second, a narrative approach is used to describe the economic circumstances that surrounded each of the devaluation episodes; finally, a set of econometric tests are used in order to identify the key variables behind the macroeconomic imbalances that preceded each exchange rate crisis. The results show that the external imbalances were mainly associated with the imbalances in the money market. Terms of trade deterioration account for just a small part of current account crisesBretton Woods, Devaluation, Fixed Exchange Rate Regime, Monetary Policy

CONFLICTO, ESTADO Y DESCENTRALIZACIÓN: DEL PROGRESO SOCIAL A LA DISPUTA ARMADA POR ELCONTROL LOCAL, 1974-2002

El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar las variables que explican la actividad armada de los grupos irregulares desde mediados de los años setenta y establecer las posibles causas de expansión hasta el año 2002, teniendo en cuenta particularmente el papel de la descentralización entendida coma la mayor autonomía política, presupuestal y administrativa de los gobiernos locales. En los últimos treinta años el país experimentó profundos cambios a nivel económico, social e institucional. No solo se consolidó el proceso de urbanización a la vez que disminuyó la participación del sector agropecuario en la producción nacional sino que se profundizó fuertemente el proceso de descentralización desde mediados de los años ochenta. El presente trabajo sostiene que la descentralización trasladó el conflicto a una disputa por el poder local, lo que se manifiesta en el uso de la violencia ya sea para apropiarse de los bienes y recursos públicos, para influenciar los resultados políticos y electorales de conveniencia para los grupos irregulares y/o para consolidar su dominio territorial desde lo local. El análisis de la actividad temprana (1974-1982) de los grupos guerrilleros muestra que ella está explicada en mayor medida por variables socioeconómicas (pobreza, desigualdad). Sin embargo, su evolución desde mediados de los ochenta está ligada al proceso de descentralización el cual creó incentivos a los grupos irregulares para el dominio de lo local a través del uso de la violencia. Dada la debilidad del Estado en lo relativo al monopolio de la fuerza y a la administración de justicia, se facilitó la expansión e intensificación de la actividad armada de los grupos guerrilleros y de las autodefensas ilegales. Los distintos resultados estadísticos y econométricos revelan un nexo fuerte entre la intensificación de la acción armada y la mayor independencia política y fortaleza fiscal de los gobiernos locales. Esto trabajo contó con nuevos datos históricos sobre el conflicto e información económica, fiscal, social y política a nivel municipal. Se utilizó la información recientemente recopilada a nivel municipal por el IEPRI sobre la actividad y acciones de armadas de los distintos grupos guerrilleros (FARC, ELN. M-19) para el período 1974-1982 y las bases de datos municipales de la Fundación Social, Departamento Nacional de Planeación y Presidencia de la República sobre acciones y ataques de grupos guerrilleros, de autodefensas y de delincuentes para el período 1985 a 2002.Conflicto armado