A demographic approach to the assessment of Downs syndrome screening performance

The aim of this article is to examine the performance of screening for fetal Down syndrome (DS) in the context of demographic variation in time and place, using population and fertility data for several European countries. Two screening approaches are distinguished: one on the basis of maternal serum screening with human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in combination with maternal age, and one on the basis of maternal age only. Screening performance, as measured by detection and false-positive ratios, is shown to be the result of the screening approach chosen and of the demographic characteristics of the population under consideration. A proper distinction between these two determinants of DS screening performance should be made, in order to distinguish between an improvement in screening performance that is brought about by a new screening approach and an improvement that is brought about by demographic change. We recommend that measures of DS screening performance be standardized for demographic variation. The methodology and demographic data presented in this article can be used for this purpose. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Prevalence of Delta F508 cystic fibrosis carriers in The Netherlands: Logistic regression on sex, age, region of residence and number of offspring

an average cystic fibrosis (CF) carrier frequency of 1 in 25 in Europe is cited in numerous reports, although a great variability in estimated prevalences has been found in different European populations. The estimates of these frequencies were based on numbers of CF patients before identification of the gene in 1989. Here we report the results of a study to determine the carrier frequency of the Delta F508 mutation in The Netherlands by analyzing mouthwashes and matched blood samples from 11654 blood donors all over the country. We analyzed possible relationships between a number of theoretically explanatory variables and the Delta F508 carrier frequency by means of univariate and multivariate logistic regression. These variables were: distance of the blood banks from the northeastern part of the country (distance); whether the blood donors knew that we were looking for a CF mutation; sex and age of the donor; and number of children of the donor (family size). We detected a Delta F508 carrier frequency of 1 in 42 (95% CI 1/37-1/47) in The Netherlands. If we assume that the relative frequency of the Delta F508 mutation among carriers and patients is comparable in The Netherlands, this gives an estimated overall CF carrier frequency of 1 in 32 (95% CI 1/28-1/36), significantly less than 1 in 25. The univariate logistic regression analysis of the effects of the explanatory variables on the carrier frequency revealed no significant relationships, except for an increase in carrier frequency with increasing distance from the northeastern region. In the multivariate analysis with all five independent variables, distance, age and family size were significantly related to the carrier frequency, but sex and CF information were not. There was a significant interaction between age and family size. In our final model, distance, age rind family size were positively related to the carrier frequency, while the interaction of age with family size showed a negative relation. These results confirm that there is a gradient in gene frequency with low frequencies in the northeastern part of the country and high frequencies in the southern part. They also suggest a relation of age and family size with carrier frequency. This relation, however, is too complex to be explained by heterozygote advantage

Congenital malformations and maternal occupational exposure to glycol ethers

Glycol ethers are found in a wide range of domestic and industrial products, many of which are used in women's work environments. Motivated by concern about their potential reproductive toxicity, we have evaluated the risk of congenital malformations related to glycol ether exposure during preg nancy as part of a multicenter case-control study, conducted in six regions in Europe. The study comprised 984 cases of major congenital malformations and 1,134 controls matched for place and date of birth. Interviews of the mothers provided information about occupation during pregnancy, sociodemographic variables, and other potential risk factors (medical history, tobacco, alcohol, drugs). A chemist specializing in glycol ethers evaluated exposure during pregnancy, using the job description given by the mother, without knowledge of case or control status. We classified malformations into 22 subgroups. The overall odds ratio (OR) of congenital malformation associated with glycol ether exposure was 1.44 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-1.90], after adjustment for several potential confounders. The association with exposure to glycol ethers appeared particularly strong in three subgroups: neural tube defects (OR = 1.94; 95% CI = 1.16-3.24), multiple anomalies (OR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.24-3.23), and cleft lip (OR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.11-3.73). In this last subgroup, risk, especially of an isolated defect, tended to increase with level of exposure

Congenital malformations and maternal occupational exposure to glycol ethers

Glycol ethers are found in a wide range of domestic and industrial products, many of which are used in women's work environments. Motivated by concern about their potential reproductive toxicity, we have evaluated the risk of congenital malformations related to glycol ether exposure during preg nancy as part of a multicenter case-control study, conducted in six regions in Europe. The study comprised 984 cases of major congenital malformations and 1,134 controls matched for place and date of birth. Interviews of the mothers provided information about occupation during pregnancy, sociodemographic variables, and other potential risk factors (medical history, tobacco, alcohol, drugs). A chemist specializing in glycol ethers evaluated exposure during pregnancy, using the job description given by the mother, without knowledge of case or control status. We classified malformations into 22 subgroups. The overall odds ratio (OR) of congenital malformation associated with glycol ether exposure was 1.44 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-1.90], after adjustment for several potential confounders. The association with exposure to glycol ethers appeared particularly strong in three subgroups: neural tube defects (OR = 1.94; 95% CI = 1.16-3.24), multiple anomalies (OR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.24-3.23), and cleft lip (OR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.11-3.73). In this last subgroup, risk, especially of an isolated defect, tended to increase with level of exposure