New perspectives for migration foresight and preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project

This paper summarizes new perspectives for studying migration futures, drawing on the results of the European Union-funded project QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy. The paper presents advances in conceptualizing, explaining, estimating and forecasting international migration, considering various forms of uncertainty, and acknowledging the complexity of migration processes and the agency of various actors involved. The authors propose and evaluate a range of tools aimed at improving the estimates of current and predictions of future migration levels, and enhancing operational preparedness across various time horizons. A brief overview of these tools is provided, followed by a discussion of key implications and recommendations for migration and migration-related policies. The goal is to underscore the opportunities for making these policies more robust, future-proof and better aligned with the needs of both host societies and migrants themselves