Predictive value of multiple cytokines and chemokines for mortality in an admixed population: 15-year follow-up of the Bambui-Epigen (Brazil) cohort study of aging

Inflammation, particularly elevated IL-6 serum levels, has been associated with increased mortality risk, mostly in Caucasians. The influence of genetic ethno-racial background on this association is unknown. We examined associations between baseline serum levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and other cytokines (IL1-2, TNF, IL-10, and IL1β) and chemokines (CCL2, CCL5, CXCL8, CXCL9 and CXCL10) with 15-year mortality in 1,191 admixed Brazilians aged 60 years and over. Elevated IL6 level (but not other biomarkers) was associated with increased risk of deaths with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 1.51 (95% CI = 1.15, 1.97), 1.54 (95% CI = 1.20, 1.96) and 1.79 (95% CI = 1.40, 2.29) for the 2nd, 3rd and the highest quartiles, respectively. Genomic African and Native American proportions did not modify the association (p > 0.05). The discriminatory ability to predict death of a model based on IL-6 alone was similar as that of a comprehensive morbidity score (C statistics = 0.59 and 0.60, respectively). The abilities of IL-6 and the morbidity score models to predict death remained stable for very long term after the baseline measurement. Our results indicate that genome-based African and Native American ancestries have no impact on the prognostic value of IL-6 for mortality