Political and institutional determinants of the tax mix : an empirical investigation for OECD countries

Modern tax systems show a mix of direct and indirect taxes. However, it is difficult if not impossible to explain actual tax systems on the ba-sis of optimality conditions. Political and institutional factors are some-times argued to explain the presence of very complex tax structures. Wepropose various hypotheses that relate the tax structure to some political and institutional explanatory variables. The hypotheses are tested by ap-plying panel data analysis on a large sample of OECD countries for the period 1965 to 1995. We conclude that political and institutional vari-ables do not substantially influence the actual shape of the tax structure.

Credibility and Transparency of Central Banks: New Results Based on Ifo’s World Economicy Survey

This paper reports the results of a survey among private sector economists about credibility and transparency of central banks. In line with the survey of Alan Blinder among central bankers, we asked participants in Ifo’s World Economic Survey to answer questions on the importance and determinants of credibility. The results of both surveys are very comparable. Credibility is considered to be important to attain price stability at low cost, while the best ways to earn credibility are a history of honesty and a high level of central bank independence. According to our respondents, the Federal Reserve is the most credible, transparent and independent central bank out of seven large central banks. The ECB is not perceived as highly credible or tranparent, even though our respondents consider it to be very independent.transparency, credibility, independence, monetary policy, ECB

Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?

This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro area in pursuing expansionary policies before elections. In an election-year – but not in the year prior to the election – the budget deficit increases. This result is in line with third generation PBC models, which are based on moral hazard. We also find a significant but small partisan effect on fiscal policy outcomes.fiscal policy, political budget cycle, Stability and Growth Pact

Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices

This paper reviews recent developments in the management of government debt in the euro area, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It focuses on key aspects of debt management; the objectives of debt management, its organisation, the maturity of debt, inflation-indexation, currency-denomination, the ownership of debt, and debt issuing and trading practices. Main adjustments include an increase in autonomy of debt management agencies, and a convergence in debt maturities and in debt issuing strategies. Issuance of inflation-indexed bonds and the use of interest rate swaps have increased strongly. While the share of government debt denominated in non-domestic currencies is falling, foreign ownership of euro area government debt is increasing markedly. The observed changes in recent years in part reflect the introduction of the euro and the related integration of European capital markets.

Determinants of Cross-Border Bank Acquisitions in Transition Economies: A Latent Class Analysis

We analyze the microeconomic determinants of cross-border bank acquisitions in 16 transition economies over the period 1996-2006. By using a latent class discrete choice model we explicitly incorporate the macroeconomic and institutional heterogeneity of the transition economies into our analysis. We find that foreign banks target relatively large and efficient banks when they enter transition economies with weak institutions. This evidence provides support for the market power hypothesis. However, when foreign banks enter more developed transition economies that have made progress in economic reform, they acquire less efficient banks. This result is in line with the efficiency hypothesis.cross-border bank acquisitions, latent class logistic model, transition economie

Is there Really a European Business Cycle?

In this paper we argue that in contrast to the conclusion of Artis and Zhang, there is not much evidence in support of the view that increased exchange rate stability is related to more synchronised business cycles in Europe. This finding may have important consequences, as existing differences in business cycles in the EMU-countries may not disappear due to further monetary integration, making a common monetary policy hazardous.Business cycles, ERM, EMU

Interest Rate Linkages in EMU Countries: A Rolling Threshold Vector Error-Correction Approach

This paper revisits financial market integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union, using a threshold vector error-correction model (TVECM) for a fixed rolling window. This approach enables us to analyze the dynamics of transaction costs and detect any co-movements with (policy induced) changes in the financial environment. The TVECM methodology is applied on interest rates from different financial markets (government bonds, deposits, loans and mortgages) in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands for the 1980-2006 period. Our main finding is that only for some country pairs and financial market segments there is evidence in support of financial integration.interest rate linkages, financial integration, EMU, threshold vector error-correction

Asymmetric Monetary Transmission in EMU: The Robustness of VAR Conclusions and Cecchetti’s Legal Family Theory

We review studies on monetary transmission in the EU countries using the VAR approach and analyse why they often lead to divergent outcomes. Firstly, we estimate 43 VAR models across ten EU countries and compare the robustness of the ranking of the magnitudes of the price and output responses. The main specification differences between the VAR models are the use of two different sample periods; the inclusion of additional variables; and the use of recursive, long run, and structural identification schemes. Secondly, we calculate rank correlations between the output and price responses of a recursive VAR and a structural VAR to the financial structure indicators used by Cecchetti (1999), who argued that legal systems cause financial structure, which in turn causes asymmetric transmission. In contrast to Cecchetti, we find that there is little correlation.monetary transmission, VAR models, EMU

Inflation in Developing Countries: Does Central Bank Independence Matter?

We analyse whether central bank independence (CBI) affects inflation in developing countries. For this purpose we have constructed a new data set for the turnover rate (TOR) of central bank governors for a very large sample of countries, which also covers the 1990s. We find that once various control variables are included, the CBI proxy is often not significant. We also conclude that in those regressions in which the CBI proxy is significant, the coefficient of the TOR becomes significant only after high inflation countries are added to the sample.Inflation, central bank independence

The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?

Using daily data on inflation-indexed bonds, we find evidence of a negative relationship between ECB communication regarding risks to price stability - measured on the basis of the frequency and strength of the keyword ‘vigilance’ - and changes in euro area break-even inflation. However, this result is only found for the second half of 2005. At that time, the start of a tightening of ECB monetary policy was increasingly likely. This suggests that communication should be closely in line with policy actions before it can be effective. Still, we also find that the economic significance of this type of communication has been small.central bank communication, ECB, inflation expectations