Improved objective bayesian estimator for a PLP model hierarchically represented subject to competing risks under minimal repair regime

In this paper, we propose a hierarchical statistical model for a single repairable system subject to several failure modes (competing risks). The paper describes how complex engineered systems may be modelled hierarchically by use of Bayesian methods. It is also assumed that repairs are minimal and each failure mode has a power-law intensity. Our proposed model generalizes another one already presented in the literature and continues the study initiated by us in another published paper. Some properties of the new model are discussed. We conduct statistical inference under an objective Bayesian framework. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the efficiency of the proposed methods. Finally, our methodology is illustrated by two practical situations currently addressed in a project under development arising from a partnership between Petrobras and six research institutes

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is < 2000ĝ€-mmĝ€-yrĝ'1 (water-limited forests) and to radiation otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, independent of climate limitations, wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall < 2000ĝ€-mmĝ€-yrĝ'1. Author(s) 2016.Fil: Wagner, Fabien H.. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Hérault, Bruno. Ecologie Des Forets de Guyane; BrasilFil: Bonal, Damien. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; FranciaFil: Stahl, Clment. Universiteit Antwerp; BélgicaFil: Anderson, Liana O.. National Center For Monitoring And Early Warning Of Natural Disasters; BrasilFil: Baker, Timothy R.. University Of Leeds; Reino UnidoFil: Sebastian Becker, Gabriel. Universidad de Hohenheim; AlemaniaFil: Beeckman, Hans. Royal Museum For Central Africa; BélgicaFil: Boanerges Souza, Danilo. Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; BrasilFil: Cesar Botosso, Paulo. Ministerio da Agricultura Pecuaria e Abastecimento de Brasil. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria; BrasilFil: Bowman, David M. J. S.. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Bräuning, Achim. Universitat Erlangen-Nuremberg; AlemaniaFil: Brede, Benjamin. Wageningen University And Research Centre; Países BajosFil: Irving Brown, Foster. Universidade Federal Do Acre; BrasilFil: Julio Camarero, Jesus. Instituto Boliviano de Investigacion Forestal Bolivia; BoliviaFil: Camargo, Plnio Barbosa. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.. Universidade Federal do Paraná; BrasilFil: Carvalho, Fabrcio Alvim. Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora; BrasilFil: Castro, Wendeson. Universidade Federal Do Acre; BrasilFil: Koloski Chagas, Rubens. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Chave, Jrome. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.. University Of Zambia; ZambiaFil: Clark, Deborah A.. University Of Missouri-st. Louis; Estados UnidosFil: Regina Capellotto Costa, Flavia. Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia; BrasilFil: Couralet, Camille. Royal Museum For Central Africa; BélgicaFil: Henrique Da Silva Mauricio, Paulo. Universidade Federal Do Acre; BrasilFil: Dalitz, Helmut. Universidad de Hohenheim; AlemaniaFil: Resende De Castro, Vinicius. Universidade Federal de Vicosa; BrasilFil: Milani, Jaanan Eloisa De Freitas. Universidade Federal do Paraná; BrasilFil: Roig Junent, Fidel Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla; Argentin

Erica: Prevalences Of Hypertension And Obesity In Brazilian Adolescents

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)To estimate the prevalence of arterial hypertension and obesity and the population attributable fraction of hypertension that is due to obesity in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS: Data from participants in the Brazilian Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), which was the first national school-based, cross-section study performed in Brazil were evaluated. The sample was divided into 32 geographical strata and clusters from 32 schools and classes, with regional and national representation. Obesity was classified using the body mass index according to age and sex. Arterial hypertension was defined when the average systolic or diastolic blood pressure was greater than or equal to the 95th percentile of the reference curve. Prevalences and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of arterial hypertension and obesity, both on a national basis and in the macro-regions of Brazil, were estimated by sex and age group, as were the fractions of hypertension attributable to obesity in the population. RESULTS: We evaluated 73,399 students, 55.4% female, with an average age of 14.7 years (SD = 1.6). The prevalence of hypertension was 9.6% (95% CI 9.0-10.3); with the lowest being in the North, 8.4% (95% CI 7.7-9.2) and Northeast regions, 8.4% (95% CI 7.6-9.2), and the highest being in the South, 12.5% (95% CI 11.0-14.2). The prevalence of obesity was 8.4% (95% CI 7.9-8.9), which was lower in the North region and higher in the South region. The prevalences of arterial hypertension and obesity were higher in males. Obese adolescents presented a higher prevalence of hypertension, 28.4% (95% CI 25.5-31.2), than overweight adolescents, 15.4% (95% CI 17.0-13.8), or eutrophic adolescents, 6.3% (95% CI 5.6-7.0). The fraction of hypertension attributable to obesity was 17.8%. CONCLUSIONS: ERICA was the first nationally representative Brazilian study providing prevalence estimates of hypertension in adolescents. Regional and sex differences were observed. The study indicates that the control of obesity would lower the prevalence of hypertension among Brazilian adolescents by 1/5.501Brazilian Department of Science and Technology at the Secretariat of Science and TechnologyStrategic Inputs of the Ministry of Health (Departamento de Ciencia e Tecnologia da Secretaria de Ciencia e Tecnologia e Insumos Estrategicos do Ministerio da Saude - Decit/SCTIE/MS)Health Fund Sector (Fundo Setorial de Saude - CT-health) at the Ministry of science, Technology and Innovation (Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao - MCTI)FINEP [01090421]CNPq [2010/565037-2]hospital research incentive fund for Clinics in Porto Alegre (fundo de incentivo a Pesquisa do Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre - HCPA) [405,009/FIPE-2012-7]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq

Erica: Prevalence Of Metabolic Syndrome In Brazilian Adolescents

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)To determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS: We evaluated 37,504 adolescents who were participants in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), a cross-sectional, school-based, national study. The adolescents, aged from 12 to 17 years, lived in cities with populations greater than 100,000 inhabitants. The sample was stratified and clustered into schools and classes. The criteria set out by the International Diabetes Federation were used to define metabolic syndrome. Prevalences of metabolic syndrome were estimated according to sex, age group, school type and nutritional status. RESULTS: Of the 37,504 adolescents who were evaluated: 50.2% were female; 54.3% were aged from 15 to 17 years, and 73.3% were from public schools. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 2.6% (95% CI 2.3-2.9), slightly higher in males and in those aged from 15 to 17 years in most macro-regions. The prevalence was the highest in residents from the South macro-region, in the younger female adolescents and in the older male adolescents. The prevalence was higher in public schools (2.8% [95% CI 2.4-3.2]), when compared with private schools (1.9% [95% CI 1.4-2.4]) and higher in obese adolescents when compared with nonobese ones. The most common combinations of components, referring to 3/4 of combinations, were: enlarged waist circumference (WC), low HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c) and high blood pressure; followed by enlarged WC, low HDL-c and high triglycerides; and enlarged WC, low HDL-c, high triglycerides and blood pressure. Low HDL was the second most frequent component, but the highest prevalence of metabolic syndrome (26.8%) was observed in the presence of high triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS: ERICA is the first Brazilian nation-wide study to present the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and describe the role of its components. Despite the prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome being low, the high prevalences of some components and participation of others in the syndrome composition shows the importance of early diagnosis of this changes, even if not grouped within the metabolic syndrome.501Department of Science and Technology of the Secretariat of Science, Technology and Strategic Inputs of the Ministry of Health (Decit/SCTIE/MS)Health Sectorial Fund (Fundo Setorial de Saude - CT-Saude) of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI)FINEP [01090421]CNPq [2010/565037-2]Research Incentive Fund of the Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre - (Fundo de Incentivo a Pesquisa do Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre - FIPE-HCPA) [405.009/2012-7]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Leituras e leitores de Richard Morse: a trajetória de um livro sobre a formação da metrópole paulista

De comunidade à metrópole: a biografia de São Paulo, was first published in 1954 and then re published in 1970 as Formação histórica de São Paulo: de comunidade à metrópole. Written by a young US researcher fascinated by Latin America, this material was originally submitted as his PhD thesis at Columbia University in 1952. Since then, Richard Morse's (1922-2001) work has come a long way and is now considered a primary reference in the history of urban development of São Paulo. This article briefly recovers the reader's response when Morse's research was first published, and how it ensured the book's importance in the Brazilian historiography. The aim is to draw a parallel trajectory of the book and its author - the young researcher at Columbia who became a professor of Latin American History at Yale - and to discuss the meanings regarding its importance in São Paulo's historiography as well as its contribution to a better understanding of the city.O livro De comunidade à metrópole: a biografia de São Paulo, publicado em 1954 e reeditado em 1970 com um novo título, Formação histórica de São Paulo: de comunidade à metrópole, foi escrito por um jovem norte-americano encantado com a América Latina, tendo sido inicialmente apresentado como tese de doutorado na Universidade de Columbia, em 1952. Desde então, essa obra de Richard Morse (1922-2001) percorreu um longo caminho, sendo hoje considerada "um clássico" sobre a evolução urbana da capital paulista. Retoma-se sinteticamente aqui a recepção da publicação, recuperando leitores e leituras que acabaram por garantir ao livro de Morse esse lugar na historiografia paulistana e brasileira. Busca-se, desse modo, traçar um paralelo entra a trajetória do livro e a de seu autor - que de jovem investigador em Columbia torna-se professor de História da América Latina na Universidade de Yale - para discutir o sentido do livro na historiografia e na própria interpretação que o livro fundaria sobre a cidade de São Paulo

Educomunicação e suas áreas de intervenção: Novos paradigmas para o diálogo intercultural

oai:omp.abpeducom.org.br:publicationFormat/1O material aqui divulgado representa, em essência, a contribuição do VII Encontro Brasileiro de Educomunicação ao V Global MIL Week, da UNESCO, ocorrido na ECA/USP, entre 3&nbsp;e 5 de novembro de 2016. Estamos diante de um conjunto de 104 papers executivos, com uma média de entre 7 e 10 páginas, cada um. Com este rico e abundante material, chegamos ao sétimo e-book publicado pela ABPEducom, em seus seis primeiros anos de existência. A especificidade desta obra é a de trazer as “Áreas de Intervenção” do campo da Educomunicação, colocando-as a serviço de uma meta essencial ao agir educomunicativo: o diálogo intercultural, trabalhado na linha do tema geral do evento internacional: Media and Information Literacy: New Paradigms for Intercultural Dialogue