Toward Maghreb monetary unification:what does the theory and history tell us?

Since the beginning of the decade, numerous economic and monetary unification projects have aroused a lot of interest. The reinforcement of economic and monetary integration, especially in Europe, has set a trend for the creation of a monetary union in many others regions of the world. Since then, the debate has moved towards the study of the parameters that justify the creation of a single currency. However, another current of thought emphasized the fragility of the traditional theory and considered the criteria as incomplete, since this theory insists solely on a few elements concerning the adjustment process under various exchange regimes (Bogdan 2004). Also, many monetary unions have existed and lasted without meeting this theory’s criteria. Other economists recommend studying the history of these monetary unions so as to define the necessary conditions for the success of a monetary integration (Sharp 2005, Jonung 2002). Within Maghreb, the completion of the regional integration process, initiated in 1989 by the creation of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) and the establishment of the Maghreb monetary union would have a positive impact on economic growth, good governance and political stability. In this paper, we showed that the Maghreb Countries can not constitute a monetary block that satisfies the criteria of optimality. Moreover, the study of historical experiences also allowed us to verify that the MCs have to strengthen their political coordination and improve their budgetary and financial situations to establish a lasting monetary union. Finally, with the aim of a Maghreb monetary unification, we conclude with the idea that these countries have to make more efforts to gather economico-institutional conditions essential to the institution of one of the two preliminary proposed monetary systems, namely a pure float with inflation targeting or a currency board

Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries

La investigación bioantropológica en la Argentina fue muy activa tanto en la primera etapa, comienzos del siglo XVII a 1936, como en el período que va desde ese año hasta la actualidad. La primera etapa comienza con los monjes españoles de la época de la Conquista quienes se interesaron por la paleontología. Francisco Javier Muñiz realizó la primera actividad verdaderamente científica y también enseñó al joven Ameghino a excavar y reconocer piezas fósiles. Florentino Ameghino y sus dos hermanos -Carlos y Juan- contribuyeron al desarrollo de la paleontología en América. Otros investigadores destacados fueron: Moreno, Zeballos, Castellanos, Senet y Lehmann-Nitsche, entre otros. El segundo período contó con muchos investigadores en antropología biológica y otras ciencias afines, argentinos y europeos. En particular, hacia 1930 Marelli introdujo los cálculos estadísticos en Antropología y Fernando Pérez descubrió un nuevo sistema de orientación craneal. Posteriormente, Marcellino y Cocilovo introdujeron las primeras técnicas de análisis multivariado en el país, empleadas luego por la Antropología Biológica sudamericana. Estos hallazgos, sumados a la introducción de principios genéticos para interpretar movimientos migratorios, respuestas adaptativas bien diferenciadas y modelos estocásticos sobre asentamientos y migraciones humanas, cumplimentan los avances de la Antropología Biológica en la Argentina en los tiempos modernos. Este artículo intenta describir esa historia.Research in Argentine biological anthropology was very active in both the early period, from the early 18th century to 1936, and the one starting from that point to the present. The former period began with the Spanish monks who arrived during the Conquest and were interested in paleontology. Francisco Javier Muñiz did the first truly scientific activity and also taught young Florentino Ameghino to dig and recognize fossil pieces. Ameghino and his brothers -Carlos and Juan- contributed to the development of paleontology in the Americas. Other well-known researchers were: Moreno, Zeballos, Castellanos, Senet, and Lehmann-Nitsche, among others. The second period had many researchers in Physical Anthropology and several attached sciences, both Argentinian and European. In particular, around 1930 Marelli introduced the statistical calculus in anthropology and Fernando Pérez discovered a new cranial orientation system. Later, Marcellino and Cocilovo introduced the earliest techniques of multivariate analysis known in Argentina, employed for solving many South-American physical anthropological problems afterwards. These findings, along with the introduction of genetic principles for interpreting migratory movements and a number of well differentiated adaptive responses and stochastic models concerning man migration and settlements, fulfilled Argentina’s Physical Anthropology advances in modern times. This article attempts to describe that history.Sociedad Argentina de Antropologí

Exchange Rate Volatility and Optimum Currency Area Index : Evidence from Africa

DR LEO 2007-16DR LEO 2007-16International audienc

Remittances and financial inclusion: Does financial developemnt matter?

International audienceThis study provides new evidence on the relationship between remittances and financial inclusion using generalized methods of moments (GMM) and panel threshold regressions (PTR). The sample consists of 64 developing countries over the period 2004-2017. The empirical results suggest that remittances improve financial inclusion, and the relationship between both variables is nonlinear, with respect to financial development. These findings are supported by PTR estimations, that confirm positive and significant relationship between remittances and financial inclusion below a given threshold of financial development. Beyond this threshold, remittances and financial inclusion nexus is not significant. These results have some policy implications

A Panel Data Analysis

Dans cet article, nous étudions le lien entre le développement financier et la croissance économique. L’étude porte sur un échantillon de 71 pays et couvre la période 1960-2004. Les résultats obtenus à l’aide des méthodes DOLS, FMOLS et de panel vecteur autorégressif à correction d’erreur confirment ceux des travaux précédents sur l’existence d’une causalité bidirectionelle entre la finance et la croissance aussi bien au niveau de l’échantillon global que les différents groupes de pays proposés dans l’étude. En outre, notre étude révèle qu’il y a des différences significatives entre les groupes de pays quand on considère les relations de long et de court terme. Pour les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire, il n’y a pas d’évidence en faveur d’une relation de court terme entre la finance et la croissance. Ces pays doivent privilégier des politiques de long terme. Cependant, pour les pays à revenu élevé, la croissance affecte la finance aussi bien à court terme qu’à long terme. • Mot clés: Développement financier; croissance; Causalité en panel; cointegration en panel. • Classification JEL: O11, O16, O33. This paper reassesses causal relationship between financial development and economi

The impact of currency unions on trade: lessons from CFA franc zone and implications for proposed African monetary unions

In this paper we explore whether the two existing currency unions in CFA Franc zone have a significant increase in trade between members. Furthermore, the impact of regional agreements which are only based on preferential trade (ECOWAS, COMESA, and SADC) is also analysed. Using panel techniques for 35 countries in Africa on the period 1980-2005, our empirical results strongly support that existing currency unions in CFA zone enhance significantly the trade between members. However, the Rose effect is more substantial in UEMOA than in CEMAC. Our results show that during their implementation the regional agreements which are only based on preferential trade (ECOWAS for example) have generated a little increase in trade compared to countries in currency unions. These results are highly interesting and have some policy implications for the proposed monetary unions in Africa.Cet article tente d’évaluer empiriquement l’impact des unions monétaires existantes en Afrique sur le commerce en prenant appui sur la zone Franc CFA. Il s’intéresse aussi à l’impact des accords régionaux fondés seulement sur le libre-échange (CEDEAO; COMESA et SADC). A l’aide d’un modèle gravitationnel du commerce et d’une analyse en panel sur un échantillon de 35 pays en Afrique sur la période 1980- 2005; on montre que les unions monétaires régionales existantes en Afrique ont renforcé les liens commerciaux entre les pays membres. Les résultats suggèrent aussi que l’effet Rose est plus grand dans la zone UEMOA que dans la CEMAC. Par contre; il semble que les accords régionaux fondés seulement sur le libre-échange n’ont pas amélioré significativement le commerce comparé aux pays dans les unions monétaires. Au total; ces résultats sont très intéressants en termes de recommandations de politiques économiques

Financial Development Thresholds and the Remittances-Growth Nexus

International audienceThis study provides new evidence on the relationship between remittances and economic growth using system GMM on dynamic panel and panel threshold regression (PTR) model proposed by Hansen (J Econ 93:334–368, 1999) that authorized multiple thresholds. The sample consists of 60 developing countries from 1985 to 2015. The empirical results indicate that there is a threshold effects of financial development in the remittances-growth relationship. Beyond a given threshold of financial development, there is a positive relationship between remittances and economic growth, while, this relationship is insignificant under the threshold. Specifically, remittances will be more likely to contribute to economic in recipient countries with relatively well-functioning financial sectors. Since financial development seems to matter in the manner in which remittances are used, the best way for recipient country governments to ensure that remittances contribute to positive economic growth is to foster financial sectors, thus ensuring that a greater proportion of remittances are channeled in a more effective way to have a positive impact on growth

Measuring financial in African Countries

International audienceThere is no consensus in the literature regarding the measure of financial inclusion. Previous studies mainly rely on supply-side information to measure the extent of financial inclusion. We contribute to this literature by using a newly created index of overall financial inclusion for 37 African countries for the periods 2011, 2014 and 2017. Our measure is determined by four dimensions: access, penetration, usage and barriers. Furthermore, we apply a two stage Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assign weight to the dimensions. The proposed index is robust, comparable across countries. It is highly correlated with some macroeconomic variables such as GDP per capita, education, and institutional quality