Entry Dynamics, Capacity Utilisation and Productivity in a Dynamic Open Economy

This paper analyses an open economy Ramsey model with an endogenous labour supply without capital. The technology defines an optimal firm size. Changes to the number of firms is subject to adjustment costs, so that the entry dynamics is determined endogenously. We find that there is a short run transitory productivity dynamic introduced when there is imperfect competition due to changes in capacity utilization. We are able to analyze this in different contexts, including demand and technology shocks, both anticipated and unanticipated.entry, capacity utilisation, adjustment costs, Ramsey

Entry Dynamics, Capacity Utilisation and Productivity in a Dynamic Open Economy

This paper analyses an open economy Ramsey model with an endogenous labour supply without capital. The technology defines an optimal firm size. Changes to the number of firms is subject to adjustment costs, so that the entry dynamics is determined endogenously. We find that there is a short run transitory productivity dynamic introduced when there is imperfect competition due to changes in capacity utilization. We are able to analyze this in different contexts, including demand and technology shocks, both anticipated and unanticipated

Appalachian Transition: A cross sector approach to regional transition.

Appalachia is made up of many mountains, many communities and many different sectors of work. The Appalachian Transition Fellows based out of the Highlander Education Center have spent 9 months working throughout central Appalachia to build cross sector bridges and to help further a positive growth in the region’s economy. Through the fellowship people are working with different models of transition, including value chains, worker owner cooperatives, local food initiatives, policy making, etc. In this session we will be breaking out into different groups each led by one or two fellows to talk about various ways these different models could be beneficial in different communities in Appalachia. There is value in working not only across county and state lines, but also working across economic sector boundaries. This is a workshop to understand the different models being used and to further discuss how to growth between these models for a more diverse and stronger Appalachian economy

Efficacy of adalimumab as second-line therapy in a pediatric cohort of crohn’s disease patients who failed infliximab therapy: The Italian society of pediatric gastroenterology, hepatology, and nutrition experience

Background: Adalimumab (Ada) treatment is an available option for pediatric Crohn’s disease (CD) and the published experience as rescue therapy is limited. Objectives: We investigated Ada efficacy in a retrospective, pediatric CD cohort who had failed previous infliximab treatment, with a minimum follow-up of 6 months. Methods: In this multicenter study, data on demographics, clinical activity, growth, laboratory values (CRP) and adverse events were collected from CD patients during follow-up. Clinical remission (CR) and response were defined with Pediatric CD Activity Index (PCDAI) score ≤10 and a decrease in PCDAI score of ≥12.5 from baseline, respectively. Results: A total of 44 patients were consecutively recruited (mean age 14.8 years): 34 of 44 (77%) had active disease (mean PCDAI score 24.5) at the time of Ada administration, with a mean disease duration of 3.4 (range 0.3–11.2) years. At 6, 12, and 18 months, out of the total of the enrolled population, CR rates were 55%, 78%, and 52%, respectively, with a significant decrease in PCDAI scores (P<0.01) and mean CRP values (mean CRP 5.7 and 2.4 mL/dL, respectively; P<0.01) at the end of follow-up. Steroid-free remission rates, considered as the total number of patients in CR who were not using steroids at the end of this study, were 93%, 95%, and 96% in 44 patients at 6, 12, and 18 months, respectively. No significant differences in growth parameters were detected. In univariate analysis of variables related to Ada efficacy, we found that only a disease duration >2 years was negatively correlated with final PCDAI score (P<0.01). Two serious adverse events were recorded: 1 meningitis and 1 medulloblastoma. Conclusion: Our data confirm Ada efficacy in pediatric patients as second-line biological therapy after infliximab failure. Longer-term prospective data are warranted to define general effectiveness and safety in pediatric CD patients

Identifying Health Economic Considerations to Include in the Research Protocol of a Randomized Controlled Trial (the REDUCE-RISK Trial): Systematic Literature Review and Assessment.

BACKGROUND: The REDUCE-RISK trial was set up to compare the effectiveness of weekly subcutaneously administered methotrexate with daily oral azathioprine or 6-mercaptopurine in low-risk Crohn disease (CD) or subcutaneously administered adalimumab (ADA) in high-risk CD in a pediatric population (age 6-17 years). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to perform a systematic review to provide input into the research protocol to gather the necessary information to improve the performance of an evidence-based economic evaluation when the trial is finished. METHODS: The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, websites of HTA institutes, CRD's National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, MEDLINE (OVID), and Embase databases were consulted to retrieve (reviews of) relevant economic evaluations. Studies were eligible if they included a pediatric or adult population with inflammatory bowel diseases (CD and ulcerative colitis [UC]) treated with ADA (Humira). There were no restrictions on the comparator. Only economic evaluations expressing outcomes in life years gained or quality-adjusted life years gained were selected. RESULTS: A total of 12 primary studies were identified. None of these studies included a pediatric population because of a lack of supporting trials. The economic evaluations identified in our systematic review indicate that ADA is an appropriate intervention for inclusion in such a trial. From a health economic point of view, it is important to make an incremental analysis comparing such an intervention with standard care and not immediately versus another (expensive) biological treatment. Information on the impact of children's school attendance and parents' productivity is currently lacking in economic evaluations, and none of the underlying trials measured quality of life (QoL) using a generic utility instrument. CONCLUSIONS: The review of the economic literature on ADA for the treatment of patients with CD supports the performance of a trial with biologicals in pediatric patients, including making a distinction according to disease severity. Conducting an economic literature review enabled us to decide which variables should be added to the research protocol from an economic point of view. Measurements for children's and parents' QoL (EuroQol 5-Dimension questionnaires), children's school attendance, and parents' productivity (WPAI-CD-CG questionnaire) were added to the research protocol. This will provide support for the calculation of the cost-effectiveness of the interventions evaluated in the REDUCE-RISK trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02852694; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02852694

Protocol for a multinational risk-stratified randomised controlled trial in paediatric Crohn's disease: methotrexate versus azathioprine or adalimumab for maintaining remission in patients at low or high risk for aggressive disease course

INTRODUCTION: Immunomodulators such as thiopurines (azathioprine (AZA)/6-mercaptopurine (6MP)), methotrexate (MTX) and biologics such as adalimumab (ADA) are well established for maintenance of remission within paediatric Crohn's disease (CD). It remains unclear, however, which maintenance medication should be used first line in specific patient groups. AIMS: To compare the efficacy of maintenance therapies in newly diagnosed CD based on stratification into high and low-risk groups for severe CD evolution; MTX versus AZA/6MP in low-risk and MTX versus ADA in high-risk patients. Primary end point: sustained remission at 12 months (weighted paediatric CD activity index ≤12.5 and C reactive protein ≤1.5 fold upper limit) without relapse or ongoing requirement for exclusive enteral nutrition (EEN)/steroids 12 weeks after treatment initiation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: REDUCE-RISK in CD is an international multicentre open-label prospective randomised controlled trial funded by EU within the Horizon2020 framework (grant number 668023). Eligible patients (aged 6-17 years, new-onset disease receiving steroids or EEN for induction of remission for luminal ± perianal CD are stratified into low and high-risk groups based on phenotype and response to induction therapy. Participants are randomised to one of two treatment arms within their risk group: low-risk patients to weekly subcutaneous MTX or daily oral AZA/6MP, and high-risk patients to weekly subcutaneous MTX or fortnightly ADA. Patients are followed up for 12 months at prespecified intervals. Electronic case report forms are completed prospectively. The study aims to recruit 312 participants (176 low risk; 136 high risk). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: (NCT02852694), authorisation and approval from local ethics committees have been obtained prior to recruitment. Individual informed consent will be obtained prior to participation in the study. Results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal with open access. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02852694; Pre-results

International prospective observational study investigating the disease course and heterogeneity of paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease: the protocol of the PIBD-SETQuality inception cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Patients with paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) may develop a complicated disease course, including growth failure, bowel resection at young age and treatment-related adverse events, all of which can have significant and lasting effects on the patient's development and quality of life. Unfortunately, we are still not able to fully explain the heterogeneity between patients and their disease course and predict which patients will respond to certain therapies or are most at risk of developing a more complicated disease course. To investigate this, large prospective studies with long-term follow-up are needed. Currently, no such European or Asian international cohorts exist. In this international cohort, we aim to evaluate disease course and which patients are most at risk of therapy non-response or development of complicated disease based on patient and disease characteristics, immune pathology and environmental and socioeconomic factors. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this international prospective observational study, which is part of the PIBD Network for Safety, Efficacy, Treatment and Quality improvement of care (PIBD-SETQuality), children diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease <18 years are included at diagnosis. The follow-up schedule is in line with standard PIBD care and is intended to continue up to 20 years. Patient and disease characteristics, as well as results of investigations, are collected at baseline and during follow-up. In addition, environmental factors are being assessed (eg, parent's smoking behaviour, dietary factors and antibiotic use). In specific centres with the ability to perform extensive immunological analyses, blood samples and intestinal biopsies are being collected and analysed (flow cytometry, plasma proteomics, mRNA expression and immunohistochemistry) in therapy-naïve patients and during follow-up. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Medical ethical approval has been obtained prior to patient recruitment for all sites. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed scientific publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03571373

Predicting outcomes in pediatric ulcerative colitis for management optimization: systematic review and consensus statements from the pediatric inflammatory bowel disease–ahead program

Background & Aims: A better understanding of prognostic factors in ulcerative colitis (UC) could improve patient management and reduce complications. We aimed to identify evidence-based predictors for outcomes in pediatric UC, which may be used to optimize treatment algorithms. Methods: Potential outcomes worthy of prediction in UC were determined by surveying 202 experts in pediatric UC. A systematic review of the literature, with selected meta-analysis, was performed to identify studies that investigated predictors for these outcomes. Multiple national and international meetings were held to reach consensus on evidence-based statements. Results: Consensus was reached on 31 statements regarding predictors of colectomy, acute severe colitis (ASC), chronically active pediatric UC, cancer and mortality. At diagnosis, disease extent (6 studies, N = 627; P =.035), Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index score (4 studies, n = 318; P <.001), hemoglobin, hematocrit, and albumin may predict colectomy. In addition, family history of UC (2 studies, n = 557; P =.0004), extraintestinal manifestations (4 studies, n = 526; P =.048), and disease extension over time may predict colectomy, whereas primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) may be protective. Acute severe colitis may be predicted by disease severity at onset and hypoalbuminemia. Higher Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index score and C-reactive protein on days 3 and 5 of hospital admission predict failure of intravenous steroids. Risk factors for malignancy included concomitant diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis, longstanding colitis (>10 years), male sex, and younger age at diagnosis. Conclusions: These evidence-based consensus statements offer predictions to be considered for a personalized medicine approach in treating pediatric UC

Predicting outcomes in pediatric Crohn's disease for management optimization: systematic review and consensus statements from the pediatric inflammatory bowel disease–ahead program

Background & Aims: A better understanding of prognostic factors within the heterogeneous spectrum of pediatric Crohn's disease (CD) should improve patient management and reduce complications. We aimed to identify evidence-based predictors of outcomes with the goal of optimizing individual patient management. Methods: A survey of 202 experts in pediatric CD identified and prioritized adverse outcomes to be avoided. A systematic review of the literature with meta-analysis, when possible, was performed to identify clinical studies that investigated predictors of these outcomes. Multiple national and international face-to-face meetings were held to draft consensus statements based on the published evidence. Results: Consensus was reached on 27 statements regarding prognostic factors for surgery, complications, chronically active pediatric CD, and hospitalization. Prognostic factors for surgery included CD diagnosis during adolescence, growth impairment, NOD2/CARD15 polymorphisms, disease behavior, and positive anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody status. Isolated colonic disease was associated with fewer surgeries. Older age at presentation, small bowel disease, serology (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody, antiflagellin, and OmpC), NOD2/CARD15 polymorphisms, perianal disease, and ethnicity were risk factors for penetrating (B3) and/or stenotic disease (B2). Male sex, young age at onset, small bowel disease, more active disease, and diagnostic delay may be associated with growth impairment. Malnutrition and higher disease activity were associated with reduced bone density. Conclusions: These evidence-based consensus statements offer insight into predictors of poor outcomes in pediatric CD and are valuable when developing treatment algorithms and planning future studies. Targeted longitudinal studies are needed to further characterize prognostic factors in pediatric CD and to evaluate the impact of treatment algorithms tailored to individual patient risk