The resonance phenomenon in population persistence: can the same theory guide both national security policies and personalized medicine?

Abstract The theory of resonance in population persistence proposes that the survival of a population that is exposed to externally inflicted loss processes (disturbances) during part of its life cycle is dependent on the relation between the average period of the disturbances and the average generation time of the population. This suggests that the size of a population can be controlled by manipulating the period between external disturbances. This theory, first formalized in a study of intertidal Red Sea mollusks exposed to periodic storms, has been found to apply to such seemingly disparate phenomena as the spread of a pathogen among susceptible individuals and the response of malignant cancer cells to chemotherapy. The current article provides a brief review of the evolution of the resonance theory into a tool that can be applied to designing vaccination policies – specifically, in preparedness for bio-terrorism attacks – and in personalized medicine. A personalized protocol based on the resonance theory was applied to a cancer patient, stabilizing his tumor progression, relieving his hematopoietic toxicity, and extending his surviva

Fluid-Retention Side-Effects of the Chemotherapy-Supportive Treatment Interleukin-11: Mathematical Modelling of Putative Underlying Mechanisms

Interleukin-11 (IL-11) is a pleiotropic thrombopoietic cytokine and immune modulator, clinically approved for alleviation of chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia in non-myeloid malignancies. IL-11 therapy exerts fluid accumulation-associated adverse effects, complicating its administration and limiting its use. Implementation of standard biomathematical techniques to assess these effects is not possible, due to incomplete knowledge of the underlying mechanisms. This study investigates IL-11-induced blood volume expansion (BVE) by a new mathematical modelling methodology. Alternative models for BVE following IL-11 therapy were constructed, calibrated with clinical information and simulated in a number of treatment scenarios. The models demonstrated high compliance and were equally capable of reliably predicting BVE in a wide range of treatments, provided sufficient data. Model simulations indicate that frequent and low dose IL-11 regimens are favored for ensuring minimal fluid retention, upon the current IL-11 therapy

An Integrated Disease/Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model Suggests Improved Interleukin-21 Regimens Validated Prospectively for Mouse Solid Cancers

Interleukin (IL)-21 is an attractive antitumor agent with potent immunomodulatory functions. Yet thus far, the cytokine has yielded only partial responses in solid cancer patients, and conditions for beneficial IL-21 immunotherapy remain elusive. The current work aims to identify clinically-relevant IL-21 regimens with enhanced efficacy, based on mathematical modeling of long-term antitumor responses. For this purpose, pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data were acquired from a preclinical study applying systemic IL-21 therapy in murine solid cancers. We developed an integrated disease/PK/PD model for the IL-21 anticancer response, and calibrated it using selected “training” data. The accuracy of the model was verified retrospectively under diverse IL-21 treatment settings, by comparing its predictions to independent “validation” data in melanoma and renal cell carcinoma-challenged mice (R2>0.90). Simulations of the verified model surfaced important therapeutic insights: (1) Fractionating the standard daily regimen (50 µg/dose) into a twice daily schedule (25 µg/dose) is advantageous, yielding a significantly lower tumor mass (45% decrease); (2) A low-dose (12 µg/day) regimen exerts a response similar to that obtained under the 50 µg/day treatment, suggestive of an equally efficacious dose with potentially reduced toxicity. Subsequent experiments in melanoma-bearing mice corroborated both of these predictions with high precision (R2>0.89), thus validating the model also prospectively in vivo. Thus, the confirmed PK/PD model rationalizes IL-21 therapy, and pinpoints improved clinically-feasible treatment schedules. Our analysis demonstrates the value of employing mathematical modeling and in silico-guided design of solid tumor immunotherapy in the clinic

Dickkopf1 Regulates Fate Decision and Drives Breast Cancer Stem Cells to Differentiation: An Experimentally Supported Mathematical Model

BACKGROUND: Modulation of cellular signaling pathways can change the replication/differentiation balance in cancer stem cells (CSCs), thus affecting tumor growth and recurrence. Analysis of a simple, experimentally verified, mathematical model suggests that this balance is maintained by quorum sensing (QS). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To explore the mechanism by which putative QS cellular signals in mammary stem cells (SCs) may regulate SC fate decisions, we developed a multi-scale mathematical model, integrating extra-cellular and intra-cellular signal transduction within the mammary tissue dynamics. Preliminary model analysis of the single cell dynamics indicated that Dickkopf1 (Dkk1), a protein known to negatively regulate the Wnt pathway, can serve as anti-proliferation and pro-maturation signal to the cell. Simulations of the multi-scale tissue model suggested that Dkk1 may be a QS factor, regulating SC density on the level of the whole tissue: relatively low levels of exogenously applied Dkk1 have little effect on SC numbers, whereas high levels drive SCs into differentiation. To verify these model predictions, we treated the MCF-7 cell line and primary breast cancer (BC) cells from 3 patient samples with different concentrations and dosing regimens of Dkk1, and evaluated subsequent formation of mammospheres (MS) and the mammary SC marker CD44(+)CD24(lo). As predicted by the model, low concentrations of Dkk1 had no effect on primary BC cells, or even increased MS formation among MCF-7 cells, whereas high Dkk1 concentrations decreased MS formation among both primary BC cells and MCF-7 cells. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study suggests that Dkk1 treatment may be more robust than other methods for eliminating CSCs, as it challenges a general cellular homeostasis mechanism, namely, fate decision by QS. The study also suggests that low dose Dkk1 administration may be counterproductive; we showed experimentally that in some cases it can stimulate CSC proliferation, although this needs validating in vivo

Predicting Outcomes of Prostate Cancer Immunotherapy by Personalized Mathematical Models

Therapeutic vaccination against disseminated prostate cancer (PCa) is partially effective in some PCa patients. We hypothesized that the efficacy of treatment will be enhanced by individualized vaccination regimens tailored by simple mathematical models.We developed a general mathematical model encompassing the basic interactions of a vaccine, immune system and PCa cells, and validated it by the results of a clinical trial testing an allogeneic PCa whole-cell vaccine. For model validation in the absence of any other pertinent marker, we used the clinically measured changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels as a correlate of tumor burden. Up to 26 PSA levels measured per patient were divided into each patient's training set and his validation set. The training set, used for model personalization, contained the patient's initial sequence of PSA levels; the validation set contained his subsequent PSA data points. Personalized models were simulated to predict changes in tumor burden and PSA levels and predictions were compared to the validation set. The model accurately predicted PSA levels over the entire measured period in 12 of the 15 vaccination-responsive patients (the coefficient of determination between the predicted and observed PSA values was R(2) = 0.972). The model could not account for the inconsistent changes in PSA levels in 3 of the 15 responsive patients at the end of treatment. Each validated personalized model was simulated under many hypothetical immunotherapy protocols to suggest alternative vaccination regimens. Personalized regimens predicted to enhance the effects of therapy differed among the patients.Using a few initial measurements, we constructed robust patient-specific models of PCa immunotherapy, which were retrospectively validated by clinical trial results. Our results emphasize the potential value and feasibility of individualized model-suggested immunotherapy protocols

Targeted Drug Delivery by Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin: Mechanism-Based Mathematical Model for Treatment Strategy Improvement and Therapy Individualization

Gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO) is a chemotherapy-conjugated anti-CD33 monoclonal antibody effective in some patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The optimal treatment schedule and optimal timing of GO administration relative to other agents remains unknown. Conventional pharmacokinetic analysis has been of limited insight for the schedule optimization. We developed a mechanism-based mathematical model and employed it to analyze the time-course of free and GO-bound CD33 molecules on the lekemic blasts in individual AML patients treated with GO. We calculated expected intravascular drug exposure (I-AUC) as a surrogate marker for the response to the drug. A high CD33 production rate and low drug efflux were the most important determinants of high I-AUC, characterizing patients with favorable pharmacokinetic profile and, hence, improved response. I-AUC was insensitive to other studied parameters within biologically relevant ranges, including internalization rate and dissociation constant. Our computations suggested that even moderate blast burden reduction prior to drug administration enables lowering of GO doses without significantly compromising intracellular drug exposure. These findings indicate that GO may optimally be used after cyto-reductive chemotherapy, rather than before, or concomitantly with it, and that GO efficacy can be maintained by dose reduction to 6 mg/m2 and a dosing interval of 7 days. Model predictions are validated by comparison with the results of EORTC-GIMEMA AML19 clinical trial, where two different GO schedules were administered. We suggest that incorporation of our results in clinical practice can serve identification of the subpopulation of elderly patients who can benefit most of the GO treatment and enable return of the currently suspended drug to clinic

Dose-Levels and First Signs of Efficacy in Contemporary Oncology Phase 1 Clinical Trials

PURPOSE: Phase 1 trials play a crucial role in oncology by translating laboratory science into efficient therapies. Molecular targeted agents (MTA) differ from traditional cytotoxics in terms of both efficacy and toxicity profiles. Recent reports suggest that higher doses are not essential to produce the optimal anti-tumor effect. This study aimed to assess if MTA could achieve clinical benefit at much lower dose than traditional cytotoxics in dose seeking phase 1 trials. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed 317 recent phase 1 oncology trials reported in the literature between January 1997 and January 2009. First sign of efficacy, maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and their associated dose level were recorded in each trial. RESULTS: Trials investigating conventional cytotoxics alone, MTA alone and combination of both represented respectively 63.0% (201/317), 23.3% (74/317) and 13.7% (42/317) of all trials. The MTD was reached in 65.9% (209/317) of all trials and was mostly observed at the fifth dose level. First sign of efficacy was less frequently observed at the first three dose-levels for MTA as compared to conventional cytotoxics or combinations regimens (48.3% versus 63.2% and 61.3%). Sign of efficacy was observed in the same proportion whatever the treatment type (73-82%). MTD was less frequently established in trials investigating MTA alone (51.3%) or combinations (42.8%) as compared to conventional cytotoxic agents (75.6%). CONCLUSION: First sign of efficacy was less frequently reported at the early dose-levels and MTD was less frequently reached in trials investigating molecular targeted therapy alone. Similar proportion of trials reported clinical benefit

In vivo Bioimaging as a Novel Strategy to Detect Doxorubicin-Induced Damage to Gonadal Blood Vessels

INTRODUCTION: Chemotherapy may induce deleterious effects in normal tissues, leading to organ damage. Direct vascular injury is the least characterized side effect. Our aim was to establish a real-time, in vivo molecular imaging platform for evaluating the potential vascular toxicity of doxorubicin in mice. METHODS: Mice gonads served as reference organs. Mouse ovarian or testicular blood volume and femoral arterial blood flow were measured in real-time during and after doxorubicin (8 mg/kg intravenously) or paclitaxel (1.2 mg/kg) administration. Ovarian blood volume was imaged by ultrasound biomicroscopy (Vevo2100) with microbubbles as a contrast agent whereas testicular blood volume and blood flow as well as femoral arterial blood flow was imaged by pulse wave Doppler ultrasound. Visualization of ovarian and femoral microvasculature was obtained by fluorescence optical imaging system, equipped with a confocal fiber microscope (Cell-viZio). RESULTS: Using microbubbles as a contrast agent revealed a 33% (P<0.01) decrease in ovarian blood volume already 3 minutes after doxorubicin injection. Doppler ultrasound depicted the same phenomenon in testicular blood volume and blood flow. The femoral arterial blood flow was impaired in the same fashion. Cell-viZio imaging depicted a pattern of vessels' injury at around the same time after doxorubicin injection: the wall of the blood vessels became irregular and the fluorescence signal displayed in the small vessels was gradually diminished. Paclitaxel had no vascular effect. CONCLUSION: We have established a platform of innovative high-resolution molecular imaging, suitable for in vivo imaging of vessels' characteristics, arterial blood flow and organs blood volume that enable prolonged real-time detection of chemotherapy-induced effects in the same individuals. The acute reduction in gonadal and femoral blood flow and the impairment of the blood vessels wall may represent an acute universal doxorubicin-related vascular toxicity, an initial event in organ injury